THE ILLINOIZE SPECIAL EDITION: A banner night for Illinois...Republicans?...The world turned upside down...What does it mean for Madigan, Pritzker?...Oberweis leads Underwood

THE ILLINOIZE SPECIAL EDITION: A banner night for Illinois...Republicans?...The world turned upside down...What does it mean for Madigan, Pritzker?...Oberweis leads Underwood

November 4, 2020

WHAT THE HECK JUST HAPPENED?

If you would have told me a month ago that Republicans would be in a position to GAIN seats in the Illinois House, be on the verge of staying even in the Senate with a potential gigantic upset, kill Governor JB Pritzker’s graduated income tax referendum, knock off Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride, hold the Supreme Court seat in southern Illinois and maybe pick up a congressional seat, I’d have slapped you around for a super run on sentence and for feeding me B.S.

But here we are.

LET’S START WITH THE HOUSE

This is probably the most shocking part of the night.

There were plenty of people around the state that thought Republicans could lose as many as 9 seats in the suburbs. I didn’t think it would be 9, but it didn’t look good. Over the last week or so, Republicans started feeling a little more confident as I spoke to them. Now I know why.

So, I’m not going to declare any kind of winner in these races. We don’t have any idea how many mail-in ballots there could be for each district, so let’s be sure that my descriptions are that a candidate is leading.

As of right now, Republicans have a net pickup opportunity of two seats.

Republican Seth Lewis leads Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca) by 4,264 votes.
Republican Amy Elik leads Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton) by 4,380 votes.
Republican Chris Bos, who was so unbelievably outspent, leads Rep. Mary Edly-Allen (D-Libertyville) by 4,392 votes.
Republican David Friess leads Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steelville) by a surely insurmountable 15,789 votes.

Democrats currently lead in two GOP-held districts.

Janet Yang-Rohr leads Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville) by 1,498 votes.
Suzanne Ness leads Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee) by 1,815 votes.

There are also a couple of incumbents leading by a small margin and the race may very well be decided by mail-in ballots, which, as long as they’re postmarked yesterday, can arrive through November 17th.

Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) leads Democrat Dave Villa by 812 votes.
Rep. Janet Mason (D-Gurnee) leads Republican Dan Yost by 1,898 votes.
Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville) leads Republican Laura Hois by 2,508 votes.
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Batavia) leads Democrat Martha Paschke by 2,642 votes.
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) leads Democrat Ken Mejia-Beal by 2,657 votes.
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) leads Democrat Harry Benton by 2,856 votes.

“A POTENTIAL SHOCK IN THE SENATE”

Have you heard of Anthony Beckman?

No?

He’s a 43-year-old police officer from Harwood Heights. He’s also the Republican challenger to appointed Sen. Rob Martwick (D-Chicago).

Beckman didn’t have any money. What money he did have was spent strangely. In fact, I got a robocall from him during a Bears game.

But as the sun comes up the morning after Election Day, Beckman trails Martwick by 27 votes. 27. Out of nowhere.

Wow.

I’m giving him a call this morning and plan to write something up for you all today.

Meanwhile, Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) leads Republican Jeanette Ward to replace Sen. Jim Oberweis in the State Senate by 1,148 votes.

It also appears Sen. Dave Koehler will hold off Republican Mary Burress pending a bunch of late arriving Republican ballots.

Democrats were almost expected to pick up the Oberweis seat, but if Beckman manages to pull off an upset, Senate Republicans will be dancing a jig if they don’t lose any net seats.

THIS MAY BE THE CULPRIT

Clearly, we all have to be asking ourselves “why did the GOP outperform expectations?” The answer may not necessarily be the GOP overperforming, but the graduated income tax constitutional amendment dragging Democratic legislative candidates down.

The amendment has about 55% yes this morning. Our polling last week showed the amendment was doing great in the city of Chicago, but struggling in many other places around the state, including the suburbs. It needs 60% to pass, but could also sneak by with 50% of the total ballots cast (more people vote for President than a constitutional amendment, traditionally.)

The role Governor JB Pritzker plays in the whole situation may be part of it, too. Pritzker was the face of the tax amendment, and he’s getting some serious pushback, especially here in the suburbs, for cancelling (postponing) high school football and now “closing down” bars and restaurants to indoor service.

There’s also the Madigan problem. The powerful House Speaker bashed Republicans over the head with spending, but the negative ads, the ComEd investigation, and the state of the state are all being pointed at him. One Republican even speculated to me early this morning that Madigan may be facing a revolt from his caucus. We’ll see about that.

OBERWEIS LEADS

State Senator Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) didn’t spend much of his ice cream laden fortune on his race for Congress against Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville.)

But, this morning, Oberweis leads in the 14th District by around 900 votes. It’s a traditionally Republican district, but Underwood has been really impressive on the campaign trail.

Obviously, though, this one isn’t over until all the mail-in ballots arrive.

DAVIS SAILS, BUSTOS, CASTEN GET SCARES

Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) was seen as dead man walking in some circles given his tight race with Betsy Londrigan two years ago. But for those of us that know the district (Disclosure: I worked on Davis’ campaign in 2012), we saw just how badly Bruce Rauner dragged him down two years ago. Trump was a balloon for him, especially in the southern half of the district. The AP called the 13th for Davis. He currently leads with around 55% of the vote.

Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and Congresswoman Cheri Bustos (D-Moline) got close scares last night. The AP didn’t declare Casten a winner over Republican Jeanne Ives until after 3:00 A.M. The AP still hasn’t declared Bustos a winner over Republican Esther Joy King, but she leads by around 10,000 votes this morning.

THEN THERE’S THE COURTS

A ton of money was dumped in to the effort to defeat Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride’s retention to the court. He conceded last night with around 56.5%.

Meanwhile, in southern Illinois, Republican David Overstreet leads Democrat Judy Cates after late TV money came in and damaged Cates. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch shows Overstreet leading 63%-37%.

MORE ON THE HOUSE

We had Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont), Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst), Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) in big trouble.

Look at these leads:

Mazzochi leads by 5,326 votes
Morrison leads by 5,476 votes
Stephens leads by 6,884 votes(!)

Meanwhile, Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) was running Chicago broadcast TV ads attempting to smash his almost completely unfunded Republican challenger. Yednock’s lead? 3,857. Wow.

MORE TO COME

There’s so much out there to unpack, but we wanted to give you a quick rundown of all the races we’re watching as mail-in ballots will continue to come in for the next few days, at least.

Keep your eyes peeled on the website, Facebook, and Twitter for the latest.

Any questions or things that stick out to you? Shoot me an e-mail: patrick@theillinoize.com.

For now, I’m going to bed.

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