THE ILLINOIZE: Latest race counts and transparency problem...Inside the McConchie GOP takeover...How Kilbride went down...Durbin, Duckworth, Pritzker want Madigan out...State shutdown on the table?
THE ILLINOIZE: Latest race counts and transparency problem...Inside the McConchie GOP takeover...How Kilbride went down...Durbin, Duckworth, Pritzker want Madigan out...State shutdown on the table?
November 6, 2020
E-DAY +3
Good morning.
The Associated Press will likely call Pennsylvania for Vice President Joe Biden today, which would project him as President-Elect.
In Illinois, one congressional race is still uncalled. State Sen. Jim Oberweis leads Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) by 628 votes. But, as I’ll explain later, is still far from decided.
Currently, 7 incumbents are trailing. Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steelville) and Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton) are likely done. Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca), Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville), and Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee) are praying for mail-in ballots to go their way. Also, Rep. Mary Edly-Allen (D-Libertyville) trails by around 4,400 votes, but more on that below.
SOME RACES ARE STILL CLOSE
This is probably the most shocking part of the night.
There were plenty of people around the state that thought Republicans could lose as many as 9 seats in the suburbs. I didn’t think it would be 9, but it didn’t look good. Over the last week or so, Republicans started feeling a little more confident as I spoke to them. Now I know why.
So, I’m not going to declare any kind of winner in these races. We don’t have any idea how many mail-in ballots there could be for each district, so let’s be sure that my descriptions are that a candidate is leading.
As of right now, Republicans have a net pickup opportunity of two seats.
Republican Seth Lewis leads Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca) by 4,264 votes.
Republican Amy Elik leads Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton) by 4,380 votes.
Republican Chris Bos, who was so unbelievably outspent, leads Rep. Mary Edly-Allen (D-Libertyville) by 4,392 votes.
Republican David Friess leads Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steelville) by a surely insurmountable 15,789 votes.
Democrats currently lead in two GOP-held districts.
Janet Yang-Rohr leads Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville) by 1,498 votes.
Suzanne Ness leads Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee) by 1,815 votes.
There are also a couple of incumbents leading by a small margin and the race may very well be decided by mail-in ballots, which, as long as they’re postmarked yesterday, can arrive through November 17th.
Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) leads Democrat Dave Villa by 812 votes.
Rep. Janet Mason (D-Gurnee) leads Republican Dan Yost by 1,898 votes.
Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville) leads Republican Laura Hois by 2,508 votes.
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Batavia) leads Democrat Martha Paschke by 2,642 votes.
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) leads Democrat Ken Mejia-Beal by 2,657 votes.
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) leads Democrat Harry Benton by 2,856 votes.
More on House races below.
THE TRANSPARENCY PROBLEM
Because there were so many mail-in ballots this year, not every election jurisdiction has counted or, at least, reported any new votes in quite some time. Others don’t plan to release any new figures until NEXT TUESDAY.
Here’s what we know: Election authorities are supposed to report their number of uncounted mail-in ballots and number of mail-in ballots yet to be returned to the Illinois State Board of Elections. As of yesterday, many haven’t done that.
Among the “big” jurisdictions, Cook, DuPage, and Winnebago counties haven’t submitted their numbers. Neither have the City of Chicago or City of Rockford.
Will County has around 14,000 mail-in ballots yet to be counted. Kane County has around 1,500 to be counted, McHenry is sitting on around 1,100, and Madison County has around 300.
Here’s the kicker: Lake County, the third most populous county in the state, has around 69,000 mail-in ballots yet to be counted. That has a direct impact on the results of at least two legislative races and the yet-to-be called 14th District Congressional race between Jim Oberweis and Lauren Underwood.
County Clerk Robin O’Connor told us Wednesday Lake County will only post results twice, next Tuesday, and on the deadline for late-arriving mail-in ballots, Tuesday, November 17.
We are in the dark.
The other issue is that most election jurisdictions have not made details of remaining mail-in ballots that have yet to be returned available. We don’t know what Congressional district, what legislative district, or what precinct they come from. That would help give us (and, assuming, Republican and Democrat campaign arms) a better idea of what lead is safe and what isn’t. For all we know, Rep. Mary Edly-Allen’s (D-Libertyville) around 4,300 vote deficit could be erased with the stroke of a keyboard. There are 9 House Districts in Lake County, so it’s impossible to know how those 69,000 votes to be counted will break down.
We’re going to keep trying to get some clarity.
INSIDE McCONCHIE’S RISE TO SGOP LEADER
If Senator Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods) led a successful coup d'é·tat on Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady (R-Bloomington), the suburban lawmaker had co-conspirators from downstate in Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) and Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris).
McConchie had quickly secured the necessary votes to overwhelm Brady within the caucus after two or three weeks of furious vote whipping, mainly by Barickman and Rezin.
I spoke with multiple sources aware of the conversations and negotiations that led to McConchie’s takeover of the GOP Leader spot in a vote Thursday.
HOW KILBRIDE WENT DOWN
Pre-primary, pre-pandemic, Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride appeared to be cruising to retention without much organized effort.
But what appears to be true isn’t always true.
Here’s a story this morning about the effort of former Illinois Republican Party Executive Director and Bruce Rauner campaign official Nick Klitzing, who started laying the groundwork for a campaign to defeat Kilbride’s retention shortly after Rauner lost re-election in 2018.
How did they knock off a Supreme Court justice? Tying him to House Speaker Michael Madigan, of course.
“The connection between Kilbride and Madigan is rock solid, and you don’t even have to explain it. Fair maps, term limits. It was all about money Madigan gave to Kilbride and Kilbride deciding on cases to Madigan’s advantage,” he said.
Also, how Klitzing’s late spending may have saved southern Illinois GOP Supreme Court candidate David Overstreet, who was being outspent and attacked on TV without response.
About Kilbride, his term will end at the beginning of December. But what happens next remains unclear.
A NAME TO WATCH: Appellate Judge Mary K. O’Brien is a former Democratic State Representative from Kankakee County who appointed to the Appellate Court in 2003. She’s relatively young (55), has campaign experience, is affable, and could be a potential replacement for Kilbride and could seek the seat in 2022. There is no rule, we understand, that the court couldn’t appoint Kilbride to his own vacant seat. We’ve heard no indication that he would seek to do that.
MADIGAN UNDER FIRE
Despite having a nearly unlimited war chest, House Speaker Michael Madigan is in position to lose seats in a year a Democrat will win the Presidential election handily in the state (Biden leads Trump by around 700,000 votes in the state as of early this morning).
Senator Dick Durbin said Wednesday Madigan should step aside as Democratic Party chairman, Governor JB Pritzker joined the chorus Thursday. Thursday evening, Senator Tammy Duckworth went farther, saying Madigan needed to go as DPI Chair AND House Speaker.
Madigan, though, says he’s not going anywhere.
Joking with a GOP operative last night, my friend asked me “how many times have we written Madigan’s obituary?”
ANOTHER SHUTDOWN LOOMING?
In his daily COVID-19 update Thursday, Governor JB Pritzker seemed to open the door to shutting down the state again as new cases of the coronavirus continue to skyrocket in Illinois.
The state reported 9,935 new cases yesterday and the state topped 10,000 deaths yesterday, as well.
Governor JB Pritzker threatened further mitigations were on the table Thursday, seemingly including rules similar to his stay-at-home order this spring.
“If others don’t change their behavior, we are going to experience a surge in hospitalizations much higher than we are now,” Pritzker said. “If the current trajectory continues, if our hospitals continue to fill up, if more and more people continue to lose their lives to this disease, we’re going to implement further statewide mitigations, which nobody, and I mean nobody, wants.”
You can imagine, though, the reaction from some downstate lawmakers was less than supportive.
MEA CULPA
In Wednesday’s early morning edition of this newsletter, I flipped around the results of the graduated income tax referendum results. As of early this morning, 45.3% of voters supported the so-called “Fair Tax,” while 54.7% have voted no. Thanks to my old friend Mike Brooks for pointing out the error of my ways.
Governor Pritzker, by the way, unloaded on opponents of the referendum Wednesday.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Happy Birthday today to State Rep. Jay Hoffman. Former State Senator and current DuPage County Board Chairman Dan Cronin celebrates tomorrow. Both former State Senators David “Coach” Luechtefeld and Denny Jacobs celebrate Sunday.
ONE MORE THING
It’s been a long week for everyone.
But, I’d like to conclude this morning with a short message for both sides. Republicans: Joe Biden is going to win this election. He’s won it legitimately, there were no dirty tactics, no matter what the President may say. Here in Illinois, we’ve been counting late-arriving mail-in ballots for decades. The only thing new this year is that there are more of them, and that’s the same situation in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Do not question the legitimacy of the election.
Democrats: Please do not believe that those who disagree with your view of the world and voted for someone else obviously makes them racist, mysoginistic, xenophobic scum. A lot of Republican voters don’t like Donald Trump’s rhetoric, his foreign policy, his Twitter feed, or any number of things. But, they believe that he will be more likely to support an agenda they do, whether it’s on taxes, trade, or his choices for the Supreme Court.
We can disagree without hating each other. Let’s remember our neighbor is our neighbor, no matter who he voted for.
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