ELECTION DAY IN ILLINOIZE: Feeling on the ground...How do candidates REALLY feel right now...The congressional upset nobody predicted?...Toia: restaurants "hemorrhaging."
ELECTION DAY IN ILLINOIZE: Feeling on the ground...How do candidates REALLY feel right now...The congressional upset nobody predicted?...Toia: restaurants "hemorrhaging."
November 3, 2020
HAPPY ELECTION DAY
You kids can have your Christmas music, this is about the only day I want to hear Andy Williams sing “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year.” Actually, that’s a lie. I still don’t want to hear that song.
Usually I’m up past midnight or up at 3:00 A.M. to put up kick signs and I often find myself getting lost between rural towns. (Ask me sometime how I went the wrong way from Rantoul to Danville this spring.)
This is the wildest, weirdest, Trumpiest, COVID-iest (he’s on a roll) election season we’ve ever seen. Turn on your TV this morning and all you’re going to hear about is Trump vs. Biden, Trump vs. Biden, and maybe a VO/SOT on control of the U.S. Senate.
But all around us, the competitive races are astounding. There’s obviously the graduated income tax constitutional amendment battle between Governor JB Pritzker’s millions and billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin’s millions.
There are at least two competitive State Senate races. There are at least 20 potentially-competitive House seats (maybe more, there could always be a surprise). Four potentially tight congressional races cover much of the state. And don’t forget the multi-million dollar battles over two downstate seats on the Illinois Supreme Court.
So, what are people hearing?
DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ASK
Pre-election predictions are like aaaaaaaaaaa, sorry, this is a family newsletter.
But depending on where folks are that you ask, may have more to do than the party they belong to. Republicans are split. Southern Illinois Republicans are brimming with confidence. They think Dave Friess will beat Rep. Nathan Reitz (R-Steelville) handily. They’re also very optimistic about the chances of Amy Elik against Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton). Democrats were outspending GOP opponents about 5:1 in those two districts One Republican even predicted that Republican David Overstreet will win the southern Illinois seat on the Supreme Court by 20 percentage points. A source told us last week that race was tight.
In central Illinois, there aren’t a ton of competitive legislative races, but there seems to be a split among GOP types if Congressman Rodney Davis can hold on. The farther south in the district you get, folks think he’s in great shape. Champaign-area Republicans (a place which never took kindly to him after he was chosen over local Erika Harold in 2012 and 2014) think he’s toast. He just barely held on in 2018, but Bruce Rauner dragged him down worse two years ago than Donald Trump ever would.
Suburban Republicans may need some therapy if today goes as poorly as some think it will. In a worst case scenario, they lose 9 seats they currently hold. I don’t think it will be that kind of a bloodbath, but if Donald Trump tanks in the suburbs and Republicans don’t come out to vote against the graduated income tax amendment, watch out.
One longtime GOP operative told me last night its a “foregone conclusion” that the GOP will take a beating in the House and Senate. (There is only one seat the GOP could realistically lose in the Senate, that’s the one currently held by Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove), who is running for Congress. Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) is the odds on favorite to win that seat. Speaking of Oberweis, not a lot of Republicans think he or former State Rep. Jeanne Ives are in great shape to take out their one-term Democratic opponents. Oberweis faces Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) and Ives faces Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove).
Democrats, meanwhile, have really clammed up to me the past couple of days. Most were pretty confident on the “Fair Tax” amendment, retaining Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride, and stealing a bunch of seats in the House. Now, they’re not saying a thing (to me, at least.) Take it for what it’s worth.
That’s what people are telling me. Sen. Chapin Rose (R-Mahomet) texted me last night “There is just TRUTH and LIES.” A modern day Confucius, that one.
“NERVOUS,” “NAUSEOUS,” “EXHAUSTED”
There are a lot of old tropes in campaign vernacular. On Election Day, your candidate is either “cautiously optimistic,” “not taking anything for granted,” or “running through the tape.”
While candidates may want to put on a veneer of confidence, are the nerves really getting to them on a day like today?
We talked to a bunch of former lawmakers about their feelings on Election Day.
Here’s what former State Representative Adam Brown had to say:
“The first race [in 2010, against Democrat Bob Flider] was a nightmare by the end. You're so raw from emotion and sorry for putting your family into the spin cycle with dirty laundry that you may or may not have created,” Brown said. “It's there tarnishing your reputation and theirs. Winning or losing by that final day has tumbled from top-of-mind.”
You can read all of the perspectives here.
THE MAIL-IN BALLOT DELAY
The Illinois State Board of Elections reported yesterday that around 600,000 of the around 2.3 million vote-by-mail ballots requested this fall have not been returned.
What does that mean?
Well, election officials from around the state don’t think the glut of early ballots will slow down their election night count. What they do say, though, is that the thousands of ballots that could come in between now and November 17 (there’s a two week window for mailed ballots to arrive as long as they’re postmarked by today) could change the result of many races, potentially Congressional, legislative, and local.
Think about it. Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) won his race by 2,000 votes two years ago. Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) won by 43. The Macon County Sheriff’s race from 2018 still isn’t settled.
THE UPSET NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT?
Donald Trump won Congresswoman Cheri Bustos’ (D-Moline) district in 2016 by about 2,000 votes. Democrats, though, have a bit of a built-in advantage in the district, which stretches from the Quad Cities to Rockford and Peoria.
About a month ago, nobody gave upstart Republican Esther Joy King much of a chance to win the district. This morning, she wakes up with a chance to take out Bustos, who is the powerful chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Our Ben Garbarek spoke to her yesterday.
I’m hearing polling has gotten very close in this race over the last couple of weeks. Republican Super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund had it at 48%-42% a couple of weeks ago. CLF also made an ad buy last week to make Bustos nervous. Not surprisingly, they tied her to House Speaker Michael Madigan. Democrats are taking the race seriously as Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s House Majority PAC made a last minute $1 million buy for Bustos.
If King manages to win this one, it may be the state’s congressional upset of the decade (counting Underwood over Hultgren.)
RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION JOINING LAWSUIT
Illinois Restaurant Association President Sam Toia told me last night the IRA is joining a lawsuit by a suburban steakhouse challenging the constitutionality of Governor JB Pritzker’s order closing bars and restaurants to indoor service.
Toia thinks the Governor shouldn’t have dropped occupancy to zero right away and it could cause 55% of Illinois restaurants to go under.
He thinks Pritzker should let restaurants stay open with even fewer people than before so they can continue to bring in some income.
MONEY WELL SPENT?
I live in the district in which Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont) and Democrat Michelle Darbro are practically lighting money on fire.
Here’s a look at all of the mail pieces I received in this race. That’s a total of 55, if you’re wondering.
ELECTION DAY LIVE BLOG
We’ll be posting updates all day on the website with news, thoughts, opinions, guesses, and downright unsubstantiated rumors (maybe not those) at our ELECTION DAY LIVE BLOG.
If you see anything out and about, send me a note at patrick@theillinoize.com. Snap a picture of a line at your polling place. If something sketchy is happening, let me know. I can look into this stuff.
I’m planning to be scooting around the suburbs most of the day talking to voters and candidates alike, so just keep hitting “refresh” on that page all day.
I’m also tentatively scheduled to do a TV hit or two tonight. I’ll post it on the live blog when it is confirmed.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Happy Birthday to former State Senator and 2018 independent gubernatorial candidate Sam McCann. Rep. Stephanie Kifowit celebrated Sunday.
THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT
We’re only starting our third month here at The Illinoize and we’re feeling great about how things are going. Thanks to all of our new subscribers and those of you that are help spreading the word.
As always, we hope you’ll like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a special post-Election Day edition.
Have a great Election Day.