Pritzker Prepares to Deliver "Make or Break" Budget for His Future Plans
Governor JB Pritzker enters the House Chamber before his Budget address in 2024. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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As Governor JB Pritzker prepares to present his seventh budget to the General Assembly Wednesday, it’s the latest page in an unprecedented string of spending plans. But this one could be the most pivotal for Pritzker’s ability to govern and his future political ambitions.
Pritzker’s own office of Management and Budget (GOMB) has projected a $3.2 billion deficit for the upcoming FY26, which begins July 1. Pritzker’s challenges include calls for more funding for public education, specifically in the City of Chicago, more money for Chicago-area mass transit systems, and the (pipe dream) ask of the Chicago Bears for more than $1 billion in state help to build a new stadium on the Chicago lakefront.
“This is a big speech,” said former Governor Jim Edgar, who served as the state’s chief executive from 1991-1999. “In the past he's been pretty fortunate because he has such an overwhelming majority in both houses. He can kind of get his budget to where he wants it. I imagine this budget might get rewritten a few times, based on what happens on revenues and particularly federal funds. It's going to be a challenge.”
Changes are a point emphasized by former Senate President John Cullerton, who served in the legislature for 41 years and as Senate President from 2009-2020.
“There's the $3.2 billion estimate of shortage. [It] is an estimate. And the money comes in over the course of a year. And they're just based on projections,” Cullerton said. “But [Pritzker] has to propose a budget. And he knows that the legislature is going to change it when he makes it. But he has to at least make a real strong attempt to make sure that it's balanced. And we know that this year, unlike past years where there's been a growth, the issue is how do we make our cuts.”
Pritzker has nearly ruled out raising taxes to balance the current budget, but we’re told numerous legislative Democrats oppose cuts to state services.
Edgar, who faced a massive deficit when he took office in 1991, said convincing lawmakers to stop spending increases is a difficult task.
“They kept spending. I mean, they'd make up numbers on the revenue estimates and all that. They weren't ready to cut things, and we had to cut a lot of things, and that's tough,” Edgar said. “This is cutting existing programs. A lot of people get hurt. But you can't spend money you don't have. You got to start getting back on solvency.”
Both Edgar and Cullerton fear potential cuts and ongoing chaos in the federal government could complicate the state’s budget development even further.
“I think the problem is going to be the federal government or the executive branch,” Cullerton said. “It seems to be the federal government now. If [President Trump] just withholds funds, he doesn't have to get an appropriation through Congress. He just won't release money. That's going to be a huge challenge, I think, to the States. It's not just Medicaid. There's a lot of other things that the way he's talking that they may cut back on it that people are going to want the state to make it up. They're not going to be able to make it up. It's going to be a, I think, a challenging time in the next few months, particularly dealing with the budget.”
Then there’s Pritzker’s own political future. He has placed himself on the front lines of public resistance to the new Trump administration and has continued to raise speculation about his interest in running for President in 2028.
“There’s no secret of Governor Pritzker’s goals for 2028,” said a Democratic consultant, who asked to remain anonymous. “That makes a budget year like this one and a speech like [Wednesday’s] a make or break moment for his future.”
Edgar says Pritzker should stay focused on the job at hand.
“I think he is the governor. He's got to do what the governor's got to do, not what a prospective presidential candidate has to do, Edgar said. “That's easier said than done. But if this budget thing completely blows up in his face, I think that's going to impact his possible national future more than if he has to cut some favorite programs of the progressives.”
Cullerton, though, downplayed the politics.
“The presidential election is four years away,” Cullerton said. “If the governor is planning on running, and I hope he does, they're going to look at his overall record. He's helped out and created a whole bunch of positive things that he can run on. So, I think this is just an example of being responsible, being able to balance the budget. And that's what governors do.”
