Is JB Pritzker's Poll Strength a Green Light for Democrats?
A new Morning Consult poll shows Governor JB Pritzker with a 54% approval rating with 41% disapproving.
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OPINION
Life is good for JB Pritzker, politically, at least.
A new poll from Morning Consult shows the second-term governor with a 54 percent approval rating. 41 percent disapprove of Pritzker for a net positive of 13.
Morning Consult, by the way, used daily online surveys between April 1 and June 30. Around 11,000 registered voters in Illinois responded and the polling outfit applied weights for things like age and gender. They say their margin of error is within one percent.
Pritzker won just under 55% of the vote last November. But following a pandemic and an election, many observers look at Pritzker’s high ratings and see a politician who can do just about whatever he wants. Especially considering the House and Senate Democrats have supermajorities and may add to those numbers next year.
While Pritzker has preached fiscal responsibility, he has doubled down on social issues playing to his progressive base like universal health care, unfettered access to abortion, and health care for undocumented immigrants in the country illegally.
How do those numbers stay sky high when picking fights on hot button social issues?
“I think there are three sections of voters right now,” said former Rep. Mike Zalewski, who left the legislature at the beginning of 2023. “[You have’ left leaning Democrats, Trump/Bailey loving Republicans and BOWA “Best of What’s Around” voters. The Governor has wide appeal in two out of three of those buckets. It’s his left leaning positions on social issues and center leaning positions on fiscal responsibility that are attributable.”
But, many Democrats credit Pritzker’s guidance on major issues, especially the pandemic, for growing his approval numbers among voters.
“In his first term, Pritzker arguably covered more ground than any other governor in the history of the state of Illinois,” said Lisa Duarte, a former First Assistant Deputy Governor for Pritzker who now practices law and lobbies. “During COVID-19, like every elected official, he had to write the playbook. Nobody knew what the right move was. But people agreed with his approach.”
Even many Republicans say they believe voters, especially moderates and suburbanites, agree with the majority of Pritzker’s accomplishments.
“Those numbers are what actually getting things done will do for you,” said former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady. “Infrastructure, paying bills on time, early childhood education funding, and [preventing] budget wars, among other things.”
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Pritzker can do whatever he wants for the next three-and-a-half years.
“George H.W. Bush may disagree with the notion that a high approval rating makes you "bulletproof" for the rest of your term,” said former Republican Rep. Mark Batinick, a suburban moderate who left the legislature in January. Bush had astonishingly high approval ratings in the wake of Desert Storm and lost election a year later after a recession.
But, Batinick says, Republicans may share some of the blame for Pritzker’s success.
“Illinois Republicans seem to be using their bullets on each other instead of Democrats,” he said. “A recent study showing that Illinois ranks 50th in the nation in racial economic equity provides an opening for Republicans. Democrats and the Governor should be paying a political price for that. To date they haven't.”
While many insiders say Pritzker will have to navigate a more progressive legislature and its spending priorities, Pritzker’s response is expected to be more pragmatic.
“I think his folks have proven to be too smart to take the approach they can do whatever they want,” Brady said. “That never works.”
“Were I advising him, I’d keep focusing and leading on the nitty gritty of government that no one focused on around here, like economic development through incentives, fiscal health and balanced budget, and keep signing bills sent to him that maintain Illinois’ status as a blue island in a sea of Big Ten red Trumpism,” Zalewski said. “Stick with what’s working.”
What should we expect from Pritzker?
“In his second term, [he is] focused on the one issue he has focused on most in his life: early childhood education,” Duarte said. “That's not sexy retail politician stuff. But it's what he cares about and what will make an economic and social impact on the world to come. And that will benefit the people of the state of Illinois. So, it's not so much that he can do whatever he wants, but it's more so that JB Pritzker can read the room. He has done and will do what the people want.”
Pritzker’s challenge moving forward may be an internal battle dealing with spending pressures in his on party with financial realities facing the state.
If Pritzker is truly feeling confident in his position, don’t be surprised to see a push on a graduated income tax, which failed in 2020.
The long term questions remain: how far does Pritzker and his team think they can go? And do Republicans have any firepower to present an alternative?
We may find the answers soon enough. There’s another election in just 15 months.