Madigan's Siege Mentality May Be the Path to Re-Election as Speaker
House Speaker Michael Madigan leaves a meeting at the State Capitol in 2018.
When Ulysses Grant and the Union Army defeated the rebels at Vicksburg, Mississippi in 1863, it was a pivotal moment. At the time, Vicksburg was a key point in a bend of the Mississippi River and it gave the Union control of the river to move toward New Orleans.
How did Grant win the battle? A siege.
He dug a line opposite of the Confederates, dug entrenchments facing the other way, and started bombarding the city and starving it off. Grant wanted to put maximum pressure on the rebels so they would believe the fight was no longer worth it.
Now, in light of the violence at the U.S. Capitol Wednesday, I’m not talking about violence and I’m certainly not comparing Madigan’s re-election strategy with a violent attempt to overtake the Capitol over a presidential election.
I’m using the metaphor because Madigan’s best path to victory may be a political siege. In war, that was isolating Vicksburg to use up its artillery and food in an effort to make the rebels capitulate.
Madigan may do it with political capital.
Former Republican State Representative Bill Black always used the analogy that Madigan was playing chess when everyone else was playing checkers. He’s not only steps ahead, he’s playing a different game.
So, let’s think of this from the Speaker’s perspective for a moment.
You have 73 members coming in, and there are 19 holdouts against your candidacy. That’s 54 maximum yes votes on a first ballot. Madigan knows the longer the stalemate goes on, he can use pressure from labor unions, campaign money, threats, jobs, and key positions to drag a few of those members back across to his side. That’s the carrot.
But to first get the surrender of the holdouts, Madigan has to break their spirit.
If he is able to keep a strong coalition together for multiple ballots, the 19 holdouts will see there is no path for them to convince their fellow Democrats to come to their side.
If this drags on for days or even weeks, members won’t be able to go home to their families, to their day jobs, and will be eating boxed meals on the floor of the Bank of Springfield for God-knows how long.
Making the opponents as uncomfortable as possible, alienating them, forcing them to believe their political careers are over is the stick that gets them believe its time to give up the fight. That’s the stick.
That whole scenario is, of course, if Madigan can give a show of strength in early ballots, like 50 to 54 votes.
If on a first ballot, Madigan finds himself with 30-40 votes, the whole idea of siege goes out the window.
We often said in the lead up to the challenge to Madigan that “you can’t beat somebody with nobody.” If Rep. Ann Williams (D-Chicago) or Rep. Kathleen Willis (D-Addison) can get that group of 19 plus other undecided members to come together behind them early, you may just have your “somebody.”
Madigan is the political strategy equivalent Ulysses S. Grant. When Grant knew he could snuff out the rebels at Vicksburg with time and not immediate force, he did what it took.
Will Madigan do the same?
