UPDATED: GOP Candidates for Governor Anything But Set
Senator Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) is one of close to 10 Republicans who are exploring a run for Governor in 2022, but few are willing to say just how serious they are about the race.
A Chicago public radio station posted a story earlier this week indicating a large list of Republicans who were seemingly positioned to run for Governor.
But in conversations in recent days with Republican lawmakers, leaders, and strategists, the picture of what the GOP field may look like by March 2022 is not clear at all.
Rep. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia)
Rep. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), who was elected to the Senate in November and will be sworn in next week, has reportedly told colleagues he is running for Governor in 2022. Bailey has been one of the highest profile lawmakers during the COVID-19 pandemic, challenging Governor JB Pritzker’s authority to issue emergency orders. Bailey has lost multiple court cases challenging Pritzker’s legal authority under the state constitution. He has argued Pritzker’s mask mandate is “attempting to take away every freedom we have” and has spoken against scientific proof of the efficacy of face coverings.
Bailey did not return an e-mail from The Illinoize seeking comment. Though he did post on his Facebook page this week about the Governor’s race.
“I’ve always believed in doing the best at whatever you are doing. Currently that means being the hardest working State Rep. Next week, the hardest working State Senator,” he wrote. “As a farmer, I have learned to work with the task at hand, while always considering the future, and working towards that as well. Illinois needs bold, honest, and fresh leadership.”
Many Republicans concede Bailey, 54, will be a strong candidate among southern Illinois voters, but would not appeal to suburban voters and would nearly guarantee a GOP loss in the November election. His fundraising has also been light, as he typically has around $100,000 in his campaign account.
Another incumbent lawmaker receiving attention for a possible run is State Senator Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington). Barickman was one of the leaders of the revolt among Senate Republicans to overthrow former Senate GOP Leader Bill Brady, installing Sen. Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods.)
Barickman spent one term in the Illinois House and was elected to the Senate in 2012. He is a Republican with multiple conservative bona fides but has also made outreach to moderates and Democrats in his nearly decade in the Senate as the only Republican to vote in favor of gay marriage and legalizing marijuana in the state.
Barickman confirms he is seriously considering a run for Governor, but he did not expand on plans or a timeline when asked by The Illinoize.
“There’s a growing excitement for opportunities that lie ahead for Illinois Republicans so long as we present a vision that appeals to Illinois voters,” Barickman said, calling Pritzker’s first two years in office a ‘failure in leadership.’ “I’ve been encouraged by numerous people in the state to make a bid for Governor and I am giving it serious consideration. But I also recognize I have a young family who is my first priority.
Barickman, 45, has three children under 10. He grew up on a downstate farm, served in the Army National Guard, and would likely present a contrast to Pritzker’s billions.
Barickman is also considered one of the Senate GOP’s better fundraisers, and will likely report around $600,000 in his campaign account next week.
(Disclosure: I managed Barickman’s first campaign for State Senate and we remain close friends.)
Many continue to believe recently retired Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington, the 2010 GOP nominee for Governor, may make a fourth run for the state’s executive branch, but numerous Republicans we spoke to say Brady is unlikely to raise enough money to make a competitive run in the GOP primary and will likely pursue a run for Congress or U.S. Senate before he runs for Governor.
If Brady were to run for Congress, it may be at the expense of Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) who could find himself drawn into a southern-Illinois focused district as Democrats draw new district maps later this year.
“He’s completely at the mercy of the map,” said one Davis acquaintance. Davis has been publicly critical in recent weeks, and may be keeping his options open for a potential gubernatorial run.
Davis did not return a message from The Illinoize Thursday.
UPDATED (4:51 P.M.):
Davis responded with a statement:
“Since our most recent successful campaign for Congress, many friends and supporters have reached out and encouraged me to run for governor. I'm honored that anyone would consider me as a potential candidate for our party's gubernatorial nomination in 2022. I am fully committed to representing my constituents in Congress. The political reality is that my continued service in Congress is at the mercy of Speaker Madigan, President Harmon, and Governor Pritzker because of our state's system of partisan gerrymandering. As a citizen of Illinois, I will continue to call out the failures of Governor Pritzker, Speaker Madigan, and any Democrat in any office who is a part of Madigan's corrupt political machine. The governor has been an unmitigated disaster, and our state desperately needs change.”
Another source close to Davis tells us he has no specific plans to run for Governor, but isn’t ruling anything out.
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(Disclosure: I was Communications Director on Davis’ first race in 2012.)
Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon)
Many Republicans believe if one of Davis’ congressional colleagues makes a run for Governor, it could be Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon). Kinzinger, though, may be setting his sights at a run for United States Senate instead.
One top Republican, former State Party Chairman Pat Brady, thinks Kinzinger can succeed at a race for Governor or for Senate.
“[He’s] a conservative who would have broad statewide appeal,” Brady said. “[He is] smart, articulate, and a veteran who is not afraid to tell it like it is.”
Many people close to The Illinozie tell us they don’t know what Kinzinger aspires to, but they believe he may be better suited for a run for Senate, especially with a wealth of national security bona fides. Brady agrees.
“Senate might be a better fit considering his national security experience,” he said. “But either way he’s a conservative that won’t scare away suburban voters.”
Kinzinger, 42, has never run for state office, and has recently stepped up criticisms of President Donald Trump, including for Trump’s removal from office Thursday.
Trump remains popular in southern and central Illinois, which could lead to a significant and well-funded primary challenger, even if Kinzinger is anointed as the top Republican to take on U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth in 2022.
We’re told by sources close to both Barickman and Kinzinger that the two are longtime friends and likely won’t run in a primary against each other.
Kinzinger’s office did not respond to interview requests.
Three wealthy businessmen are also apparently weighing the race. Attorney Richard Porter, who lives in suburban Northfield and serves as the Republican National Committeeman for Illinois is said to be “seriously interested” in the race.
Porter has a history of comments that could cause him trouble in an election, especially with organized labor. Porter has argued on behalf of bankruptcy for state government, which would negatively impact the pensions of potentially thousands of retired state workers and teachers.
It’s likely Democrats would widely circulate a video where Porter makes statements about being able to pay its bills.
“Illinois is a thing that we made up,” he says to a crowd. “This idea of a state? It’s our idea. It doesn’t really exist. It exists in our minds. It’s an entity.”
Porter has not responded to inquiries from The Illinoize.
McHenry County businessman Gary Rabine has also reportedly told Republican leaders he is “seriously interested” in a run for Governor.
One Republican operative we spoke to referred to Rabine as a “Trump guy” and said Rabine would “immediately remind people of Bruce Rauner,” and could hurt his ability to win a statewide race even if he had the money to win a primary.
Rabine could not be reached for comment.
RNC Finance Chairman and Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts
Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts of Wilmette has long been rumored to be interested in the race for Governor. Ricketts, 51, is the Republican National Committee Finance Chairman and his older brother, Pete, is the current Governor of their home state of Nebraska.
With Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs and city of Chicago, we’re told Ricketts may realize his chances in a general election may not worth the investment. Sources indicate Ricketts is deciding between jumping into the race as a candidate or helping fund a Republican that can best take on Pritzker.
A Ricketts spokesman did not return messages from The Illinoize.
One Republican operative tells us the likely successor will be who can raise enough money without alienating the GOP’s conservative base in a primary.
“You need someone who can win downstate votes in a primary without turning off suburban voters in the General,” said the operative. “Because you know JB Pritzker is going to start attacking the nominee with millions of dollars the day after the primary.”
