THE ILLINOIZE: Deep Dive...Why are Republicans in such trouble in the suburbs?...ComEd hotshot to testify in Madigan hearing next week...Stratton's gaffe?...Willie Wilson's Quixotic Senate campaign...

September 25, 2020

HAPPY FRIDAY

I’m finally sitting down at my computer at 2:05 A.M. to write this issue that goes out to you in 4 1/2 hours. So, if I lose consciousness trying to write a coherent sentence about Willie Wilson, don’t judge me, please?

We’re glad you’re here and along for the ride with us. We’ve experienced nearly 40% growth in newsletter subscriptions in just the first three weeks of this new endeavor. It’s a little humbling to see those numbers grow and for your kind comments. But, please hold my feet to the fire. We want to make this the best source of news on state government and politics for regular people in Illinois.

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THE GOP’S SUBURBAN CONUNDRUM

I should probably mention why I’m just starting the newsletter after 2:00 A.M., right?

I’ve spent the last few days touching base with a lot of suburban Republicans. We’ve talked to around a dozen current and former legislators, GOP political operatives, and Republican party officials to find out why the GOP face such a bloodbath in the suburbs two years ago. Not only that, worst case scenario, Republicans are defending 10-12 seats between the House and Senate in 2020. It’s not impossible to lose them all, but it isn’t likely.

It boils down to a few things. 2018 was a combination of the forces of Donald Trump and Bruce Rauner along with giant cash advantage for Democrats. Add ideological struggles between the “purity” arm of the party and the “get s#!t done” wing of the party, and you often find primaries that have left wounded candidates for the general.

Here’s my 2,500 word missive. Let us know what you think.

COMED ON THE HOT SEAT?

House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) sent a letter to the chairman of the House Special Investigative Committee investigating Speaker Michael Madigan, Rep. Emanuel Chris Welch (D-Hillside), that an executive from Commonwealth Edison would testify before the committee next week.

Welch invited Madigan, lobbyist and Madigan confidante Mike McClain, ComEd and numerous others to testify, but it’s not clear yet what the scope of the questioning will be (or what the U.S. Attorney will allow.) It’s possible ComEd CEO Joe Dominguez appears next Tuesday, as he’s already done a couple of hearings this summer.

The hearing will tell us a lot about how the rest of this will go. If Democrats stonewall and none of the other witnesses show up, it’s pretty clear they’re going to be running pass protection for Madigan. If a subpoena is issued, any subpoena, any would require a Democratic vote to flip, then it may at least give the appearance this will be a legit investigation.

Don’t hold your breath.

STRATTON GAFFE?

Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton made a little wave Thursday when she said individual income taxes would increase 20% on everyone next year if the graduated income tax constitutional amendment fails in November.

Let’s get a couple of things straight…someone on the right is going to argue this is Stratton claiming the tax RATE will increase to 20%. Nobody has confirmed that to me, but there’s no way. California taxes individuals who make over $1 million 13.3%. I don’t think even in the most dire circumstances that a nurse from Aurora is getting taxed at a higher rate than Tom Hanks.

The issue of a 20% increase on the current 4.95% tax rate is that it still increases the individual tax rate higher than it has ever been in the state. A 20% increase on the current rate would move Illinois up to around 5.94%. That’s almost one full percentage point higher than it has ever been in Illinois.

Either way, not good.

There are a couple of schools of thought as to why Stratton said what she did. Kristen McQueary of the Chicago Tribune tweeted about the comment calling it a “stunt.” But, earlier this week, I spoke to Quentin Fulks, a close Pritzker aide who is running the “Vote Yes for Fairness” committee. He basically said the same thing, that if taxes don’t go up on the wealthy, they’re going to go up on everyone in 2021.

We haven’t seen a lot of Stratton, especially during the coronavirus pandemic. If we don’t see her again after yesterday, we’ll know it’s a botch and she wasn’t just taking one for the team.

WILLIE QUIXOTE

Dr. Willie Wilson, a businessman and philanthropist from Chicago ran for Chicago Mayor in 2015, had a short-lived campaign for President in 2016, and ran again for Chicago Mayor in 2019. Now he’s an independent candidate for U.S. Senate this fall.

Political gadfly? Maybe. But he’s someone to pay attention to.

He spoke to our Ben Garbarek. Read the profile and watch the interview. Then, let us know an unofficial poll question: will Wilson finish 2nd in the Senate race, beating Republican Mark Curran?

CAMPAIGN UPDATES

• Governor Pritzker has dropped $25,000 to Brian Sager in the race to unseat Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock). Personal PAC just dropped mail in to the McHenry County-based district formerly held by Jack Franks. Democrats may think they have something here.

• Speaking of Willie Wilson, the millionaire just gave $2,000 to State Rep. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), the defacto leader of the anti-mask crowd in Illinois and Wilson are interesting allies.

• Millionaire Newsweb Corporation owner Fred Eyechaner has given $400,000 to House Speaker Michael Madigan. As if he doesn’t have enough money to play with.

• Madigan reported an additional $562,000 in union money eyesterday.

• Eyechaner has also maxed out to House candidate Suzanne Ness, who is challenging Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee). Skillicorn is apparently on his own from the HRO and Democrats are starting to spend in this race.

• Martha Paschke, the Democrat challenging Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva) got two more mail pieces from House Dems yesterday.

• Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) will be up on Rockford TV soon, it appears. He just got $52k from GOP Leader Jim Durkin yesterday. He’s facing a well funded challenger in Dave Vella.

• Senate GOP Leader Bill Brady just moved $238,000 over to the RSCC. They may be preparing for a big TV buy in Peoria for Mary Burress, challenging Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria) or for Jeanette Ward in the race to replace Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) in the far western suburbs.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Happy Birthday to my friend, former State Senator, and my former radio partner Rick Winkel today. He is now director of Office of Public Leadership at the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and Public Affairs. He also used to appear on a lot of my radio shows and election night coverage with us at WDWS in Champaign. I just got a bunch of old shows, I’ll see if I can find something from 10 years ago I can embarrass him with for Tuesday.

Also celebrating today, former Congressman Jerry Costello.

HELP US OUT

I live in a Tier One House district and have already gotten more than 20 pieces of mail. I’m sure your inbox is being flooded, too. I even noticed yesterday that one of the anti-graduated tax groups had made an error on its mailer.

I can’t see everything, so please feel free to scan in your mail pieces or take a photo and email it to me at patrick@theillinoize.com. I’ll always take off your name and address if we post the piece online. Let us know!

It’s been a wild week. Have a good weekend.