THE ILLINOIZE: Handicapping Illinois' US House races...The Madigan investigation stalls?...The Biss is back...Happy Birthday, Tom Ewing

WELCOME

46 days to Election Day, 6 days until the first ballots get mailed out. The pressure is ramping up. Unplug this weekend if you can. If you have to blitz or are in a phone bank this weekend, good luck. Governor Pritzker will be in Rock Island and Macomb today.

We’re going to be rolling out a lot of in depth stories and interviews about races around the state. Anything you want us to focus on? Help us spread the word and share The Illinoize with your network this morning.

HANDICAPPING HOUSE RACES

My column this morning focuses on the three major congressional races up for grabs in November.

Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) both upset incumbent Republicans in 2018, while Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) (Disclosure: I worked for his campaign in 2012.) held on by the skin of his teeth against a Democratic challenger. All three districts are considered marginally Republican, but 2020 may not follow the norms.

In fact, conventional wisdom may be thrown out the window when you look at their races in 2020. Check out the column and let me know what you think: patrick@theillinoize.com.

DAVIS IN BETTER SHAPE?

Many of you know I spent many years in Champaign covering, then working in and around local politics. 2018 was quite possibly the worst year Republicans ever had. They lost the Sheriff’s and Treasurer’s races for the first time in decades (I was involved in ad buys for both of those races) and were swept out of nearly all county offices.

The reason behind that had a little to do with Donald Trump, sure, but it was mostly because of one of the best voter mobilization efforts I’ve ever seen on a local level. Democrats got college kids out to the polls in droves, and the results showed it.

That was one of the factors that nearly knocked Rodney Davis out of office. Davis practically has only Champaign-Urbana proper in the county, and Champaign County Republicans have always been a little soft on him since he replaced Tim Johnson on the ballot in 2012 and was chosen over local darling Erika Harold to do it.

Add the fact that Bruce Rauner lost the district by 9,500 votes and you can see why Matt Butcher needed antacids on election night. Two pieces of good news for Davis: Bruce Rauner isn’t on the ballot. Donald Trump is. And Trump’s voters will come out in droves in the southern half of that district. Also, there’s nearly no way Democrats in Champaign can match their voter mobilization from 2018. Maybe they can, but even if they do, not having Rauner on the ballot could be enough to save Davis’ hide.

Bottom line: this one will still be close, and probably will only get nastier.

MADIGAN INVESTIGATION STALLS?

US Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois John Lausch has caused the latest stir in the investigation into House Speaker Michael Madigan’s role in a wide-ranging bribery scheme by energy giant Commonwealth Edison.

In a letter sent to both Committee Chairman Chris Welch (D-Hillside) and Tom Demmer (R-Dixon), the top Republican on the panel, Lausch said the committee could call witnesses. But there may be a difference in opinion between Republicans and Democrats as to what they can ask witnesses, including Madigan.

Ron Safer, a former federal prosecutor and attorney for Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs), who initiated the investigation, says Lausch’s letter indicated a “green light” to get the investigation underway. He called for the committee to begin gathering testimony and documents.

“We look forward to the Committee convening promptly to do this important work.”

Welch did not return my call, but issued a statement in which he took a far more measured tone.

“[The letter] confirms our understanding that while this committee can call individuals to voluntarily appear, they would be limited in what they can discuss,” he said.

He also took a dig at Republicans on the panel.

“We also see clearly that Republican members of this committee attempted to go beyond what has originally been discussed with the U.S. attorney. Once again, I will not allow this committee to inappropriately interfere with the work of the U.S. attorney, and I will not allow it to be used as a stage for political theater.”

Likely next step: Republicans blame Democrats for protecting Madigan. Democrats blame Republicans for political theater, nothing comes of it.

Illinois, y’all.

BISS, PLEASE?

Super progressive former State Senator and gubernatorial candidate Daniel Biss has announced he’s running for Mayor of Evanston next year. (Reminder: municipal and school board elections are held in off years.) Biss served one term in the House before he was elected to the Senate in 2012. He ran for Governor in 2018, finishing a distant second to JB Pritzker.

The Tribune reported that incumbent Mayor Steve Hagerty had not decided if he will run again. Petitions won’t be filed until November.

The move makes sense for Biss. He surely has his eyes on the north shore congressional seat currently held by Jan Schakowsky. Schakowsky is 76 and nobody stays forever.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, TOM EWING

Former Republican Congressman Tom Ewing of Pontiac celebrates his 85th birthday tomorrow. He served in the Illinois House from 1975-1991, and won a special election to the old 15th Congressional District in 1991 after the incumbent, Ed Madigan, resigned to become Secretary of Agriculture. Tom retired from the House in 2001.

I was a little young to know much more than his name when he represented me growing up, but I got to know he and Connie in 2011 and 2012 while working on a couple of races. I remember sitting next to him at a wedding in 2011 and he gave me one of the best pieces of political advice anyone can ever get in politics: “you can win if you stick to your plan, and it gets a lot harder when you don’t.”

He’s a true gentleman in a world filled with not so gentlemanly people. Politics would be a lot better if there were more Tom Ewings out there. Happy Birthday, Congressman.

SPREAD THE WORD

We’re trying to do something new here. We’re trying to make news and analysis of Illinois politics and government more accessible to regular people. They haven’t been well served by journalism today, and we want to help make them smarter, more informed, and a little more entertained when these things come up.

Can you help us spread the word? You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, and we hope you can share the newsletter with your friends and network. And I always want to hear from you. Let us know your thoughts and comments and questions at patrick@theillinoize.com.

Have a great weekend.