THE ILLINOIZE...A lame duck tax increase coming?...The state's dire financial picture...Ezike: Thanksgiving celebrations "super spreader" events...Thanksgiving traditions of Illinois politicians

November 24, 2020

HAPPY THANKSGIVING WEEK

We hope you’re going to keep a close circle this Thanksgiving week. I’m attempting the math to pare down the green bean casserole recipe that I use that I typically make for 10-12. I get a lot of my recipes from nerdChef Alton Brown, including my pumpkin pie.

State officials are freaking out about the amount of travel taking place and the pending spike in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and eventual deaths if big Thanksgiving celebrations go on as normal. Take it easy this year. Deep fry a turkey breast and buy an individual pie. Not a small pie for one. A regular pie for one.

Just a note, we will not send a newsletter out Friday morning, and you’ll see light to no posts up at www.theillinoize.com unless big things develop Wednesday and Friday.

We’re still raising money for the Salvation Army, and as a great memento of all the things we have, this is a great time to drop $10 into our online red kettle. This organization blows me away, but they’re in desperate need of resources for the good work they’re doing. I hope you’ll help.

LAME DUCK TAX HIKE?

I’ve heard some rumblings on both sides of the aisle over the past few days that an income tax increase vote is being engineered for late in the lame duck session, potentially as late as the last night of the current General Assembly, to help insulate a few Democrats in difficult spots in 2022.

It sounds a lot like 2011, right?

Following the election of Governor Pat Quinn to a full term and some outgoing Democratic lawmakers like Rep. Careen Gordon and Rep. Bob Flider, Democrats used their “lame duck” status to protect other incumbents who didn’t want to vote for a tax increase.

Both Flider and Gordon were given jobs in the Quinn administration, leading to four years of charges of a quid pro quo.

In January 2021, the legislature may find itself in a similar position. Governor JB Pritzker championed a constitutional amendment changing the state income tax from a flat rate to a graduated rate based on income.

Pritzker said following the November defeat of his signature proposal that cuts from the lost revenue “will be painful.”

One legislative Democrat says it appears decisions are in flux, but many Democrats prefer a tax increase to a series of draconian cuts.

“We have something like five lame ducks in the House,” the legislator said. “Get those five votes on board a tax increase and it helps a lot to get it passed.”

For their part, neither the Speaker’s office, Senate President’s office, or Governor’s office answered our request for comment late yesterday.

Here’s our whole story.

THE FISCAL CALAMITY

With the media focused solely on COVID-19 and asking Governor Pritzker seemingly everyday about plans to distribute a vaccine that is months away, this report form the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability sort of fell through the cracks.

COGFA, as it’s known in state government circles, is a bipartisan, bicameral commission with its own staff that monitors state spending and projects revenue changes throughout each budget year.

The Commission released its November report recently, and let’s just say the situation isn’t good. There are a couple of bright spots. But, let’s be frank: the situation is awful.

When the General Assembly passed its budget at the end of May, at the heart of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Democrats and Republicans alike agreed the budget likely wouldn’t be balanced with revenue drops from high unemployment and lower tax revenue.

The good news? Income tax revenue is higher than expected. The bad news? There’s still a giant hole in the budget.

The budget accounted for $42.9 billion in spending, but COGFA has left expected revenue for the current fiscal year at around $38.9 billion, leaving a $4 billion hole in the FY21 budget, which will have to be addressed by lawmakers at some point.

Read the story here.

WHICH BRINGS US BACK TO MADIGAN

How does the Speaker’s perilous control of his caucus impact a tax increase and budget cutting?

At last check (and before the last flurry of ad spending was reported), Madigan was sitting on over $12 million in his “Friends of Michael J Madigan” campaign account.

The promise of unlimited campaign cash goes a long way in keeping members happy and a few others who may need it.

AVOID THANKSGIVING “SUPER SPREADER” EVENTS

Illinois Department of Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike pleaded with the public yesterday to give up on travel and large groups for the Thanksgiving holiday this week.

Planes were as full as they’ve been since before the pandemic hit, and many are planning for a traditional Rockwell-style family portrait.

Monday, Ezike practically started begging residents of the state to stay home, cancel plans, and prevent their Thanksgiving dinner from becoming a “super spreader” event.

POLITICIAN TRADITIONS

My old joke is that politicians are people, too. Is it true? Sometimes. But they celebrate holidays, too, don’t they?

I asked around to get the Thanksgiving plans or traditions of a bunch of elected leaders from around the state. Obviously, we know plans have changed this year and we’re expecting people to stay safe, but here’s what we learned:

State Senator Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods), incoming Senate GOP Leader:

A local church in my district always (except maybe this year) brings Navy sailors going through basic training at Great Lakes Naval Base in for a Thanksgiving lunch and fellowship with locals from the community. It gets them a break from the confines of the base while they are away from their family. I go with my kids and serve these sailors their meals and hang out with them, hear their stories and get to know them for a while before they go for an organized afternoon of fun. We then join the rest of the family who lives in the area for our afternoon meal.

State Comptroller Susana Mendoza, via spokesman Abdon Pallasch:

Comptroller Mendoza will be at her home in Chicago's Portage Park neighborhood with her husband, their 7-year-old son and her 85-year-old mom, who lives with her. Her older brother would normally join her for dinner for Thanksgiving, but sadly, like so many others, he is sick in the hospital battling COVID-19. This Thanksgiving, she and her family will be giving thanks for the dedicated doctors and nurses on the front lines fighting the pandemic, helping care for the sick.

Our prayers are with the Mendoza family.

DURBIN GETTING GAVEL?

Well, probably not a gavel unless Democrats sweep two Senate runoffs in Georgia, but it appears Illinois Senator Dick Durbin is poised to become the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Our friend Rick Pearson at the Chicago Tribune reported that Durbin would be a candidate for the top Democrat on the position as California Senator Dianne Feinstein said she would not seek to continue in the role in the next Congress.

Feinstein, who is 87, has drawn criticism from the left for her perceived lack of harshness toward Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

The committee will also lose one of its brightest stars, current Senator and former California Attorney General Kamala Harris, who will become Vice President.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Happy birthday yesterday to Congressmen Sean Casten and Bobby Rush.

Senate President Don Harmon and former State Rep. Lou Lang celebrate Thursday with pumpkin pie and birthday cake.

ENJOY YOUR THANKSGIVING

Trust me, as a guy who has been working from home for four years, I count a lot on meetings and events to get me out of the house (and sometimes out of a writing slump or just out of my head). These last eight months have been hard on us all, and I can’t help but empathize for those who have lost income and insurance and family members.

Thanksgiving dinner will be different for many (most, we hope) around the state this year.

But, let’s take a minute to remind ourselves to be thankful for what we have. We’re alive, we just went through one of the wildest election years in a generation, and the sun will come up tomorrow. It always does.

Have a great Thanksgiving. Send me your pumpkin pie recipes at patrick@theillinoize.com, Like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter. And please share the newsletter with your friends and contacts below.

We’ll talk to you next week.