THE ILLINOIZE: 100 hours to go...Supreme Court races deadlocked...Questioning the Governor's authority...Is Pritzker abandoning the "Fair Tax?"...Happy Birthday, Glenn Poshard

October 30, 2020

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

Ok, so it’s actually about 109 hours until the polls close when this hits your inbox, but just go with it.

Talking to Republicans over the last couple of days, there’s a renewed sense of optimism. Maybe a week ago, we were hearing from Republicans about an “extinction level” event for suburban Republican legislators. Pair Governor JB Pritzker’s closure of bars and restaurants to indoor service, which many business owners have considered a death knell to their establishments, is receiving pushback from the business community, media, and, even for a little while, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and there are questions if Pritzker’s actions will cause some blowback. Add the unpopularity of the graduated income tax constitutional amendment in suburban and exurban areas, and some of those concerning legislative races are seeming a little closer these days.

Most of the Democrats I’ve spoken to this week seem to feel good about their legislative races just simply because of the dump trucks of money they’ve sent into districts around the state. It’s hard for a Republican to make up an 8:1, 10:1, or 20:1 money advantage. Add that Joe Biden will surely beat Donald Trump in the suburbs, and there’s not a ton of worry, seemingly, from Democrats I speak to.

The Presidential race is driving turnout in Illinois, but those results are baked in, at least in this state, and with half to two thirds of the vote already in, will much change the last five days?

We’ll be monitoring things all through the weekend. Drop us an email at patrick@pfcomms.net if you hear anything that we should look into or call around on. I assume we’ll do at least one special newsletter before Tuesday morning, but we’ll play it by ear.

Keep up with the latest by liking our page on Facebook, following us on Twitter, and please share this newsletter with your friends, family, dentist, and that annoying neighbor across the street with 36 yard signs.

UNDER PRESSURE

I was given the heads up on polling in both of the races (one retention, one traditional R vs. D) for the Supreme Court of Illinois.

As you may know by now, 20-year Justice Tom Kilbride is seeking retention to another 10-year term. He needs 60% of “yes” votes to get it, and a heavily funded opposition has tied him to House Speaker Michael Madigan with the help of a few million bucks from billionaire Ken Griffin.

I’m told the “yes” and “no” question basically polled evenly, which is bad news when you’re trying to get to 60%. There are so many unknowns in a retention race, though, including how many people know what they’re voting on or just skip the question altogether.

In the southern Illinois race for the Supreme Court, I’m told Democrat Judy Cates has a one-point lead on Republican David Overstreet. Cates has been on TV for weeks and Overstreet hasn’t. The same group opposing Kilbride has started attack ads against Cates, which sound like they’re moving numbers, but they may not have had enough time to make an impact when the poll was taken.

Here’s my story this morning on the races.

TOUCH OF GREY

There are a lot of questions about Governor JB Pritzker’s authority under state law and the state constitution to close bars and restaurants with multiple, ongoing executive orders since the pandemic broke out in March.

State Representative Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville) commented in a news conference yesterday that she thought Pritzker’s actions were unconstitutional. As you can imagine, the Governor’s office disagrees.

I reached out to Scott Szala, a longtime attorney at Chicago megafirm Winston & Strawn who teaches constitutional law classes at the University of Illinois for some guidance.

He says the issue isn’t so black & white.

“Most of the Circuit Court decisions have favored the Governor and there’s a couple that have not favored the Governor,” Szala said. “So, until there’s an Appellate Court decision or a potential [state] Supreme Court decision, we won’t know what the ultimate decision is.”

He says, of course, the legislature could come back and clarify the law. I’m not holding my breath.

For the record, the people who are chiming in on social media who have suddenly become constitutional law experts give me a good laugh. That, by the way, is no shot at Bourne. I’ve known her since 2012 and think the world of her and she was in law school when she was appointed to the House in 2015. So she’s not some keyboard warrior.

DON’T DO ME LIKE THAT

Governor JB Pritzker speaks to the media pretty much everyday. Obviously, his COVID-19 updates are focused on the pandemic, but he often fields questions off topic.

Pritzker has dropped many of the talking points he had used in recent months supporting the graduated income tax constitutional amendment, which he dubbed the “Fair Tax” and put about $55 million dollars into.

You may recall our poll from Tuesday that showed the question may be on its way to defeat. Our poll shows the question is doing quite poorly in the suburbs and in southern Illinois. (It is above 50% in central Illinois, though, which is interesting.) In fact, the only place the question is getting the 60% it needs to pass is in the City of Chicago.

Is Pritzker backing away from the amendment, either because he’s dragging it down or because it’s going down with or without him? I have a couple of theories.

Theory one:

• Pritzker still has a 64% statewide approval rating according to our poll. Pritzker’s support is pretty strong by region, actually. Even southern Illinois gives him 54% when you combine the “strongly” and “somewhat” approve categories. So, to think he’s the one dragging it down south of Chicago doesn’t make a ton of sense. Though, one southern Illinois Republican lawmaker told me last night folks down there are calling it the “Pritzker Tax.”

Theory two:

• Is Pritzker distancing himself from something he knows is going down? The “yes” responses to polling has been stuck around 50% for weeks, including in our poll. It’s down 42%-48% in the suburbs and down 39%-47% in southern Illinois. Republicans from the suburbs down to southern Illinois tell me they think the question is dragging Democrats down. Maybe Pritzker is cutting his losses?

For what it’s worth, Pritzker’s spokesperson pointed us to an interview the Governor did Wednesday with Illinois Public Radio in which he repeated claims the tax will reduce the burden on the middle class. You can hear the whole interview here. (The tax conversation starts around 19:12.)

WHO’LL STOP THE RAIN

Yesterday, the Governor added a large swath of west central Illinois, from Quincy to Jacksonville to Springfield to Taylorville to Lincoln to the list of areas facing additional mitigations. That means closing bars and restaurants to indoor service, limiting crowds to 25 or less, and closing casinos early. Much of the state is under additional mitigation now, including all of southern Illinois, the Metro East, northwest Illinois including Rockford, and all of the city of Chicago and suburbs.

The area encompassing Champaign-Urbana, Danville, Decatur, Charleston-Mattoon, and Effingham could be slapped with the same mitigations today. The area has been over 8% (not counting the giant amount of testing on the University of Illinois campus) for the last two days, and today would make a third. A mayor in the district says they’re scheduled to speak with the Governor’s office this morning, where it’s likely they’ll be informed of the additional mitigations. The entire state could be headed that way by next week.

YOU REALLY GOT ME

I got the e-mail above from the Cook County Clerk’s Office at 1:13 this morning. I put my ballot in a dropbox last week. These go a long way in helping erase any of the trepidation folks may have in mailing in a ballot or dropping it in a box.

Kudos to the Cook County Clerk’s office.

LIFE’S BEEN GOOD

Happy 75th birthday today to former Congressman, gubernatorial candidate, and Southern Illinois University President Glenn Poshard. He’s been holding nonviolence marches throughout the state.

Also, happy 60th birthday today to Sen. Steve Stadelman of Rockford.

Have a great weekend, everyone.