THE ILLINOIZE: One-on-One with Madigan's challenger...Republicans wanting to subpoena Speaker running out of options...Mark Curran's path to victory?

October 2, 2020

Happy Friday. Tons to get to. Refill your coffee. White Sox fans, don’t put scotch in it before noon.

ONE-ON-ONE WITH KIFOWIT

Yesterday, Rep. Stephanie Kifowit (D-Oswego) announced she’s going to challenge House Speaker Michael Madigan for the job after the election.

Kifowit is a moderate Democrat elected for the first time in 2012 and has never received less than 58% in a General Election. Republicans didn’t field a candidate against her this year. She’s a former Marine, served on the Aurora City Council, and was a financial advisor. She now lives in Kendall County, near the “four corners” where Kendall, Kane, DuPage, and Will counties. Her district covers a little bit of each county in Oswego, Montgomery, Aurora, and Naperville.

We did a 15 minute Q&A with Kifowit after her announcement yesterday. Here are a couple of highlights:

On why Madigan needs to be replaced.

• “I think that the people of Illinois need to have government that that they have faith in and I believe that he has compromised the integrity of the Office of the Speaker of the House. I believe that he’s undermined the public trust and as time goes by it seems there’s another thing then another thing. I think the people deserve to have government they believe in.”

On when she decided to challenge Madigan.

• “It’s not just one point, I think it’s a gradual realization that you have to do something. At the end of the day, I just thought I had to do something. Maybe it’s because I was in the military, I don’t know. I felt compelled to do something about the situation for the people of Illinois. Leadership has a higher standard than the confines of the law. We need to hold leaders to a high standard of morality and trustworthiness and honesty. You have the [ComEd] Deferred Prosecution Agreement, on top of the Metra scandal a couple of years ago on top of the sexual harassment scandal, and, at some point, enough is enough.”

On if she’s willing to team with Republicans to take Madigan out.

• “I think I’m going to talk to everybody in the Illinois House and they’re going to vote whichever way they want to vote. That’s what democracy is about.”

Note, that’s not a “no.”

Go read our whole Q&A.

A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE

This announcement got Kifowit a great press pop. But she has a math problem. Because Speaker Madigan has been the campaign cash sugar daddy for so many of his members, there will be a sense of loyalty to him. Add the fact that there will potentially be 3-7 new Democrats in the chamber next year, most of who will “owe” Madigan for the cash he spent on their race.

If Democrats slow-walk the Special Investigative Committee and the U.S. Attorney doesn’t file charges against Madigan before the new General Assembly is sworn in this January, ther is a potential Kifowit could make a deal with the handful of Democrats who have called on Madigan to resign and members of the Republican caucus. But, if they can’t cobble those 60 votes together, Madigan will put her in the penalty box.

There’s also the potential of more Democratic candidates for Speaker, potentially an African American or someone from farther left in the caucus. Then, all bets are off.

Bottom line: if she goes through with it, she could win, she could win with Republican help causing gigantic chaos in an already chaotic chamber, or she could lose and be cast off to Democratic Siberia.

GOP SUBPOENA FRUSTRATION

The three Republicans on the House Special Investigative Committee charged with probing Madigan’s role in the Commonwealth Edison bribery scheme are a bit perturbed. They may not have said it or sounded like it in their news conference yesterday, but I’ve had enough politicians annoyed with me over the years to know “that look.”

You can tell they’re livid at Committee Chairman Emanuel Chris Welch for refusing a vote Tuesday on subpoenas of Madigan, his confidante Mike McClain and numerous others who appear in the U.S. Attorney’s Deferred Prosecution Agreement with ComEd. It’s obvious they think Welch and the two other Democrats on the committee are stonewalling and trying to run out the clock before the GA goes sine die.

If Republicans are going to force a vote on subpoenas, not even a successful vote, just a vote, they’re running out of options to get it done. In Tuesday’s committee meeting, Welch claimed he had practically universal authority to issue subpoenas, called the GOP motions out of order, and adjourned the meeting.

I asked the three Republicans if they would consider going to court to force Welch to grant a vote on subpoenas (which they are likely to lose anyway) and Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst), an attorney, said “I certainly hope it doesn’t come to that.”

Welch, by the way, only seems to be talking to a Madigan-friendly media outlet. He hasn’t returned any of my calls or e-mails and his office appeared to hang up on me when I called the other day.

Governor Pritzker has weighed in that Madigan should testify, but it’s unlikely he moves members of the House Leadership team on the committee until he starts making some threats.

LAW & ORDER: U.S. SENATE

The general consensus is that U.S. Senator Dick Durbin is going to sail to re-election.

But, Republican former Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran says he has a path to victory, even though Donald Trump will likely lose the state handily.

Curran spoke to our Ben Garbarek about that path.

Here’s the skinny: Curran says he’ll beat Durbin downstate and he’ll do better in Lake County than Trump with his high name ID. Lake County is the third largest county in the state. He also thinks the race for Cook County State’s Attorney could help him, as Republican Pat O’Brien is polling higher than most Republicans typically do in the county. He thinks 25% in Cook County gets him in the ballgame. (For reference, moderate Republican Mark Kirk won 24.87% in Cook County in 2016.)

Here’s what Curran hopes causes the upset of the century: the “law & order” vote. He thinks riots in Chicago, Minneapolis, Kenosha, and other cities around the U.S. have put a renewed interest in the anti-crime, safe neighborhood voter. There are a lot of those in the Chicago suburbs.

Is it plausible? Sure. Is it probable? Probably not. Especially for a guy who had about $20k in his campaign account at last report.

PS- you can watch Ben’s conversation with Curran here.

CASH BASH

Some quick campaign cash updates from looking over reports filed last night:

• House Democrats aren’t overlooking Rep. Sue Scherer’s (D-Decatur) race in the Springfield-to-Decatur dumbbell shaped district. Democrats reported about $25,000 for at least two mailers yesterday. She’s facing Republican Charlie McGorray, who has received about $20,000 from Rep. Dan Caulkins (R-Decatur), his political committee, and Caulkins’ wife in the past couple of months.

• Another around $85,000 from state Democrats to Rep. Terra Costa-Howard (D-Glen Ellyn) for at least two mail pieces. Howard is in a rematch with former Rep. Peter Breen, who she beat in a 507-vote squeaker in 2018.

• The Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC, operated by Local 150, put $57,800 into the campaign of Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) last night. It was on top of $10,000 from the Illinois REALTORS. Mazzochi is facing Jennifer Zordani, who has taken in around $145,000, mostly in in-kinds from the state party and Personal PAC over the past month.

• DPI dropped another $77,000 for at least two mail pieces for Rep. Tom Morrison’s (R-Palatine) challenger Maggie Trevor. Morrison won by the skin of his teeth two years ago and Democrats think turnout alone in a presidential year may be enough to take out an unabashed conservative in a moderate suburban district.

• House GOP Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) transferred $200,000 to the Illinois Republican Party. That’s either a pre-payment on direct mail or paying for what recently went out. It’s hard to tell for sure.

• Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock) has already filed his quarterly report. He raised around $155,000 between cash and in-kinds between July 1 and September 30. He spent around $48,000 and had around $80,000 cash on hand as of yesterday. His opponent, Brian Sager, had around $100 on hand to start the 3rd Quarter, but Democrats have seen something in the district. The state part isn’t spending yet, but Governor JB Pritzker dropped $25,000 in last week.

• Democrats reported another $42,000 yesterday on at least two mail pieces for Harry Benton, the challenger to Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield). Democrats are swamping Batinick in cash in this race. By the way, Benton may have the best logo (alternate logo, I think) of any campaign in Illinois for a long time.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY(S)

Happy Birthday today to State Representative Bob Rita (D-Blue Island) and Sunday to Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) and former State Representative and 6th Congressional District candidate Jeanne Ives.

ONE LAST THING

You and I and all of Twitter saw last night that President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump both tested positive for COVID-19. There were a lot of “serves him right” and “I hope he dies” tweets out in the ether last night, and, for God’s sake, can we all just be a little more decent?

I’ve made it clear over the last 5 years that Trump’s spiteful approach to governing, campaigning, and tweeting is not something I support. I don’t like him or anything about him. This newsletter and source won’t deal with national stuff often, but this is my point.

We all need to be better. We only get the elected officials our discourse deserves. We set the example for our friends, neighbors, kids, and even that drunk uncle at Thanksgiving.

I don’t want him to die. I don’t want him comatose, I hope he gets well soon and we have a spirited race for President for the next 32 days. I hope you feel that way, too.

I’ll step off my soapbox now.

As always, we hope you’ll share your ideas, comments, dirt, and questions with us. It helps us make this newsletter better. You can email me anytime at patrick@theillinoize.com. You can also Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. And click the button below to share the newsletter with your friends and network.

Have a great weekend. Go Cubs. Go Bears.