THE ILLINOIZE: Exclusive poll..."Fair Tax" losing...Pritzker job approval at 64%...Mask order at 73%...Voter fraud investigation in DuPage County...Get well soon, Rep. Butler

October 27, 2020

TICK, TOCK

We’re winding down the final week of the longest election season in the history of mankind. Or, at least, what feels like it.

While we know Donald Trump is going to lose Illinois and Dick Durbin is probably going to win re-election in a three way race, there are a lot of unanswered questions:

• Does Governor Pritzker suffer his first major electoral defeat? If the graduated income tax constitutional amendment fails, it may box him in on tax policy for the rest of his term.

• Does Madigan cost Kilbride? The well-funded “Citizens for Judicial Fairness” have tied the unpopular Speaker right around the neck of Court Justice Tom Kilbride, who is seeking retention to the state Supreme Court. It’s a mostly downstate district, and you have to assume with the amount of money spent so far, both sides think they’re still in it.

• Southern Illinois is electing a Supreme Court justice, too. Will Republican David Overstreet win the mostly rural district, or will the piles of money from unions and trial lawyers push Democrat Judy Cates over the top?

• Does Rodney Davis hang on? He barely survived thanks to the Rauner juggernaut in 2018, and Trump will surely overperform Rauner in the southern counties in that district. Betsy Londrigan’s polling apparently shows her leading, but a lot will have to go right for her. (Disclosure: I worked for Davis’ campaign in 2012.)

• Does Madigan money drown suburban Republicans? If suburban Republicans get erased on November 3, you can blame the gigantic cash disadvantage they were at. At least 12 GOP-held seats are competitive. It’s unlikely they all flip, but under the right circumstances, it could be a blood bath.

Oh, yeah, speaking of that tax amendment…

EXCLUSIVE: TAX HIKE NUMBERS

In an exclusive poll produced for The Illinoize by Woodstock-based Victory Geek, we get a ton of insight into the minds of voters ahead of the November election.

The graduated income tax constitutional amendment question is in big trouble. Our polling shows 50% in favor, 39% opposed, and 10% undecided. Remember, the question needs 60% to pass. It can also pass with 50% of all of the ballots cast in the state. (About 250,000 more people voted for President than the 2016 ballot question.) Most estimates I’m hearing is that the question probably needs 54-55% to even get close to squeaking by.

While this would be an embarrassment to Governor Pritzker, his numbers remain solid. His job approval is at 64%, his re-elect number is at 55%, and 73% of the public approves of the statewide mask order.

House Speaker Michael Madigan, on the other hand, has a 22% approval rating statewide and a 61% disapproval.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in Illinois 62%-30% and Dick Durbin leads Mark Curran for the U.S. Senate seat 55%-19%. Independent Willie Wilson is polling at 9%.

Interestingly, 31% of Illinois voters are voting by mail, 39% say they’re voting early, and 30% say they’re voting in person on Election Day.

Here’s our full breakdown of the results.

VOTE BY MAIL FRAUD?

Some initial reports came out about this at the end of last week, but I finally got to speak to DuPage County State’s Attorney Bob Berlin yesterday to get a little more detail.

Turns out he’s investigating 4 current possible cases of voter fraud in DuPage County.

10 total vote-by-mail requests were forwarded to him by the County Clerk’s office because they were requesting a mail in ballot for, well, someone who is no longer with us.

Yep, they’re investigating dead people trying to vote.

Berlin says they couldn’t find enough evidence on six of the ballot requests for prosecution, but are continuing to investigate four of them. He wouldn’t give any specifics about the investigation, like if the four cases appear to be related.

Here’s the upshot: the process worked. The county clerk found the issue and forwarded it to prosecution without a ballot going to a dead person. This is the kind of thing that should give us more faith in the security of our elections.

Here’s our story.

MORE COVID-19 SHUTDOWNS

Katie Kautz has owned and operated breakfast and brunch restaurant Katie’s Kitchen in Des Plaines, just northwest of Chicago city limits, for 12 years.

Now that Governor JB Pritzker has closed suburban Cook County bars and restaurants to indoor service, Kautz is afraid her business won’t survive.

“All I want to do is make a living and do what I love to do, and I can’t even do it,” she says.

Pritzker announced closure of indoor service beginning midnight tonight in suburban Cook County and the Metro East region around St. Louis. They join northwest Illinois, including Rockford, Galena, and DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Will, and Kankakee Counties in the suburbs, and most of southern Illinois closed to indoor service.

Numerous restaurant and bar owners say they’re going to defy Pritzker’s order, and Pritzker has threatened citations from the Illinois State Police and potentially yanking liquor licenses and gaming licenses for repeat offenders. He’s definitely playing hardball publicly.

Bar and restaurant owners are upset because they feel they’re being singled out. They say you can fly on a plane, go to the grocery store, and be in all sorts of situations around other people. Pritzker says contact tracing shows bars and restaurants are the common factor in many cases.

LAST CASH DASH

Some big money continues to be tossed around in the final week of the campaign. Here’s a sample:

• Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride responded to another huge contribution against him by billionaire Ken Griffin by reporting another $34,000 last night from unions.

• Democrat Harry Benton, challenging Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) got $158,000 for the stretch run from the Madigan-controlled Democratic Party of Illinois.

• Senate Republicans have put another $150,000 cash into the campaign of Tazewell County Treasurer Mary Burress, who is trying to knock off Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria). There are two tightly contested races in the Senate, and the GOP may think this is their best opportunity to pick up a win. Part of that surely comes from a $325,000 transfer from Senate GOP Leader Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) to the Senate GOP campaign account.

• House GOP Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) transferred $40,000 to endangered Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park), likely for a final TV buy.

• Republican Cook County State’s Attorney candidate Pat O’Brien is making a race in his challenge of incumbent Kim Foxx, and reported around $78,000 in contributions Sunday night, including $50,000 from retired investment manager Tom O’Reilly.

• An additional around $70,000 for endangered Rep. Nathan Reitz (R-Steelville), from unions, trial lawyers, and a Democratic party PAC.

GET WELL SOON

Best wishes to Rep. Tim Butler (R-Springfield), who has tested positive for COVID-19. He is at least the fifth legislator to test positive, and the third downstate Republican in the last couple of weeks. We hope he’s back up on his longboard soon.

‘LIL HELP?

So, here’s the thing. I know you’re busy. So am I. But, as we try to make this newsletter and website something that helps the general public learn and become more engaged in the process, I need your input. I know I don’t know everything and sometimes I need to be called on something when I’m wrong.

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Have a great week.