THE ILLINOIZE: Q3 fundraising numbers are in..."...an extinction level event for suburban Republicans."...The popularity of pot...On our way to another COVID-19 shutdown?

October 16, 2020

HAPPY FRIDAY

It’s officially starting to look and feel like fall in my neck of the woods. Add the robocalls, mass texts, door knockers, and plethora of TV ads, and you know it’s fall in campaign season.

Campaign finance reports were due at midnight last night. I stayed up late to run the numbers for you.

“EXTINCTION LEVEL EVENT”

As I was working my way through legislative campaign finance reform documents last night, a Republican political operative texted me to see if I had seen a couple of specific races. I said “yes. How bad is this going to get?” He replied “bad.”

So I texted a few other Republican politico types last night to get their feeling, and let’s just say there’s no joy in Whoville after looking at the financial drubbing GOP legislative candidates are getting.

“This election is going to be an extinction level event for suburban Republicans,” one veteran operative told me. “The party has lost the suburbs because of the President’s backward policies, abrasive personality, and ultimate failure to act responsibly or effectively to COVID-19.”

That’s coming from a Republican. Yikes.

Another operative was less cryptic.

“It won’t be great, but not as bad as it could be,” he said. “Local trumps national.”

When I blind quote someone in here, it’s not because they’re the garbage man. They’re people I respect, and I completely respect the opinions of our recently quoted friend, here, but I don’t know that I could disagree more. It all comes down to money…

THE NUMBERS GAME

Let’s get into this. Here is a handy dandy excel file for you to follow along.

• It appears the GOP has cut loose Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) following her controversial racist and homophobic comments about her opponent, who is Black and gay. She’s almost out of money with nothing in the hopper, while Ken Mejia-Beal is sitting on around $165,000 for the last couple of weeks.

• Republicans never put any money behind Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee) who teased he would quit the ballot earlier this year, but decided to continue. He has around $100,000 cash on hand, while his Democratic opponent, Suzanne Ness, is looking at around $610,000 to spend down the stretch.

• Democrat Martha Paschke has about a 10:1 cash lead on Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva). She raised around $570,000 last quarter compared to Ugaste’s around $40,000.

• Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville) is in dire straits compared to his heavily funded challenger Janet Yang-Rohr. Yang-Rohr has outspent Wehrli 4:1 and has around $625,000 for the last two weeks, while Wehrli is sitting on around $80,000.

• I’ve heard from Republicans that polling shows Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont) in good shape, but he’s been outspent by Michell Darbro heavily thus far. She’s purchased around $500,000 in TV ads and Stephens has yet to report a TV buy.

• Thanks to a late $200,000 each from billionaire Ken Griffin, both Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) and Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) appear to have the resources to be competitive over the last two weeks.

• Rep. Joyce Mason (D-Gurnee) is running Chicago broadcast TV ads with a $760,000 to $27,000 spending lead over Republican challenger Dan Yost. It’s interesting why Mason is up on broadcast, but if I had $1 million to spend the last couple of weeks, I’d spend it.

• Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) barely held on to his seat two years ago, and has relatively even spending in his rematch with Democrat Maggie Trevor to this point. She has more cash on hand, and, as you may expect, the Democrats have more to send her way.

• Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) has been outspent around 7:1 thus far and his Democratic challenger, Dave Vella, has around a 4:1 cash lead down the stretch.

• Considering it’s a heavily Trump district, many Republicans pegged Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steelville) as ripe for the picking. At this point outspent David Friess more than 3:1 and has a big cash advantage. But, money doesn’t change your party when Donald Trump will win that district so big.

• In the Senate, it’s looking more and more likely the seat held by current Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) is going to flip. Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) has run a spectacular campaign thus far and she has a massive cash lead on Jeanette Ward.

• Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria) has already spent around $1.1 million to fend off a challenge from Tazewell County Treasurer Mary Burress. He has about twice as much cash left as her, but clearly, there’s something going on down there.

A POT WINDFALL?

The state released figures yesterday showing over $100 million in tax revenue had been collected in the first 8 months since recreational marijuana became legal in the state.

Whether you’re pro-legalization or not, that’s neither here nor there as it’s here, but it’s doing what supporters said it would: it’s bringing in much needed tax revenue.

September collections from August hit $20 million for the first time. The revenues declined a little at the beginning of the pandemic, but have been taking off like a rocket fueled by Cheetos and a Sublime album.

The bottom line is this: it isn’t going to cure Illinois’ budget problems, but we’re to the point that every little bit helps.

Here’s our story from last night.

ANOTHER COVID-19 LOCKDOWN COMING?

Many countries in Europe are starting to shut down again due to a second wave of the coronavirus.

What does that mean for the US? It probably has a lot to do with the direction of the presidential election in a few weeks, but I can only imagine the revolt downstate if Governor Pritzker were to put another stay-at-home order in place.

Wear a mask when around others, people. This isn’t hard.

MEA CULPA

In Tuesday’s newsletter, I referred to southern Illinois legislative candidate David Friess as “Randy.” Because, there is a difference between David Friess and Randy Frese. Promise.

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend and be sure to share the newsletter with your friends and contacts.