THE ILLINOIZE: The siege of Springfield...Gov's race far from shaping up...Inside the police reform bill...what to expect from lame duck...Mary Miller fallout...

January 8, 2021

Good morning. Welcome to the first day of lame duck session in the House. We’re told the Senate will likely come to town Sunday.

The 101st General Assembly will adjourn sine die sometime late next Tuesday. The 102nd General Assembly will be sworn in Wednesday, January 13 at noon. The first thing the House must do is pick a Speaker. That’s where it gets complicated. Well, it’s been complicated for a while, but you get my drift.

I’ll be on The Michael Koolidge Show with guest host Scot Bertram this morning. It will be on WROK in Rockford around 9:15 this morning and on other stations around the state later in the day. You can listen online here at 9:15.

I’m headed to Springfield this weekend and through Wednesday, at least. We may publish a newsletter Monday depending on what happens over the weekend, but we’ll definitely be in your inboxes Tuesday morning.

Keep up to date by following us on Twitter or liking us on Facebook. We’ll also be posting stories on www.theillinoize.com. As always, reach out with questions and comments at patrick@theillinoize.com.

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Let’s get into it.

MADIGAN’S SIEGE MENTALITY?

An opinion piece up this morning on the upcoming battle for Speaker of the Illinois House.

I read a lot about Ulysses S. Grant during lockdown this spring and summer. One of the things that always struck me was his patience at the Siege of Vicksburg.

It made me think of House Speaker Michael Madigan’s potential path to re-election as Speaker.

Former Republican State Representative Bill Black always used the analogy that Madigan was playing chess when everyone else was playing checkers. He’s not only steps ahead, he’s playing a different game.

So, let’s think of this from the Speaker’s perspective for a moment.

You have 73 members coming in, and there are 19 holdouts against your candidacy. That’s 54 maximum yes votes on a first ballot. Madigan knows the longer the stalemate goes on, he can use pressure from labor unions, campaign money, threats, jobs, and key positions to drag a few of those members back across to his side.

But to first get the surrender of the holdouts, Madigan has to break their spirit.

If he is able to keep a strong coalition together for multiple ballots, the 19 holdouts will see there is no path for them to convince their fellow Democrats to come to their side.

If this drags on for days or even weeks, members won’t be able to go home to their families, to their day jobs, and will be eating boxed meals on the floor of the Bank of Springfield for God-knows how long.

Here is my column. I’m not saying it’s the likely path, I’m saying it’s a possible path.

THERE’S WORK TO DO FIRST

The legislature still has work to do before the potential theatrics of a showdown for the Speaker’s gavel.

If the legislature does anything, it may be the passage of a 611-page police reform bill that is being criticized by Republicans and law enforcement as “anti-police.”

“This is a big, bold, transformative proposal. Change is not easy,” said Sen. Elgie Sims (D-Chicago), one of the sponsors of the bill. “But, it’s necessary because that’s the only thing that is constant is change.”

In an e-mail to members, Chicago’s Fraternal Order of Police union blasted the legislation.

“If we lose this fight, it might as well be a crime to be a law enforcement officer in Illinois. This is not police reform. This is an attack on the law enforcement profession which will not only destroy your livelihood, but also endangers the safety of the citizens throughout Illinois.”

Read about the policing legislation here.

As of this writing, it still isn’t clear how, or if, the legislature plans to handle the state’s multi-billion dollar budget deficit. Governor JB Pritzker has indicated he does not support an income tax increase during the lame duck session, but it seems hard to imagine Democrats getting behind a billion dollars or more in cuts to state programs.

GOP FIELD FOR 2022 NOWHERE CLOSE TO SETTLED

You may have seen a story by a Chicago outlet earlier this week that implied a bunch of Republicans were all set to attempt to unseat Governor JB Pritzker in 2022.

At this point, it seems there’s only one person privately telling people a candidacy is imminent: State Rep. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), who will be sworn in to the Senate next week.

There’s another Republican lawmaker who says he’s seriously considering it, Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington).

Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) seems to be keeping his options open, and Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) may be more interested in mounting a run for U.S. Senate than for Governor.

After multi-millionaire businessman Bruce Rauner took over the GOP in 2014, then Pritzker did the same for Democrats in 2018, three Chicago-area heavy hitters are said to be considering the race. RNC National Finance Chairman and Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts, RNC National Committeeman Richard Porter, and businessman Gary Rabine are all weighing entry to the race.

What does the GOP have to do to win the Governor’s office back in a blue state? Many Republicans seem to think, and polling we’ve heard about seems to suggest, that Pritzker may be doing a lot of the work on his own with unpopular actions in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Read our story here.

MARY MILLER’S NO GOOD, VERY BAD FIRST WEEK

To say this has been anything but a banner week for new Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland) would be understating it.

Miller was sworn in Sunday to Congress amid her announcement she would challenge the electoral results of states without any proof of widespread voter fraud.

Before Congress took on the certification, and before a mob of Trump supporters raided the U.S. Capitol, Miller gave a speech seemingly praising a comment made by Adolf Hitler.

A top staffer resigned following the remarks.

I’m writing this sentence at 12:46 A.M. Friday morning, and, as of this moment, Miller has yet to apologize or retract her remarks.

Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville), expects Miller to apologize.

“Congresswoman Mary Miller’s comments are unacceptable,” Davis said in a statement Thursday. “I spoke with her about it on the House floor yesterday. As a newly elected member of Congress, Congresswoman Miller must understand that words matter and they have consequences.

“I know yesterday was a difficult time for the country, and Mary and I happened to be evacuated off the House floor together and placed for hours in a safe location,” Davis continued. “Because of these circumstances, I fully expect Congresswoman Miller to offer an apology and a retraction of her comments soon.”

(Disclosures: I worked for Davis’ race for Congress in 2012, and worked for a campaign opposing Miller in the 2020 primary.)

There are calls for Miller’s resignation, but they’re generally from Chicago-area Democrats. They have about as much sway in the 15th District as I do with a whiteboard in Midtown Manhattan.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Happy Birthday today to State Representative Marty Moylan. Former State Senator and Ag Director John Sullivan turns 62 tomorrow. Former Senator Dale Risinger celebrates Sunday, and Rep. Andrew Chesney turns 39 on Monday.

I don’t believe Moylan and Chesney will be allowed to blow out candles on a masked and socially distanced House floor.