Your Questions...Answered!
We answer lots of questions about GOP nominee for governor Darren Bailey.
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OPINION
We open up our inbox again to answer your questions.
Is there any way Darren Bailey can win the election for governor?
Today, no.
We ran a bunch of numbers earlier in the week that basically showed if Bailey can’t outperform Bruce Rauner’s levels in the suburbs from 2018, it doesn’t matter how much he overperforms Rauner’s downstate numbers from 2014. (Rauner cleaned house downstate in 2014 and the gap closed in nearly every downstate conservative county in 2018.) In DuPage, Lake, and Will counties, the second, third, and fourth largest counties in the state, Rauner won the county in 2014 and lost it in 2018.
According to our poll from a couple of weeks ago, Bailey is losing the non-Cook suburbs 66%-31%. Considering the fact Bailey hasn’t run a single TV ad in Chicago, or anywhere in the state, at this point, it doesn’t bode well for trying to increase those suburban numbers. Especially when all of your earned media is negative.
But, to get on TV, he has to raise some real money fast. That’s not to say Dick Uihlein or Charles Koch or some other unnamed billionaire that wants to “own the libs” couldn’t come in and drop $50 million each, but I could go on a date with Taylor Swift tonight, too.
Will Darren Bailey have the largest loss for governor in state history?
I certainly doubt Gov. Pritzker will reach the level Gov. August French did in 1848, winning 86.76% in his run for re-election. But, he faced token opposition from the Whigs that year. And, of course, Shadrach Bond was unopposed in 1818 (the fist race for governor in the state).
In modern times, it’s Jim Thompson, who beat Michael Howlett by 29.97% in 1976 and won by around 1.4 million votes. That margin will be tough since we’re in no longer in the presidential cycle. Jim Edgar won by around 915,000 in 1994. If things don’t get better for Bailey, that number is certainly in the mix.
Now that most of the Illinois Republican moneybags are Florida residents, who are the new GOP moneybags after November?
I think the first thing you need to do is look at which Republicans are having success raising money, and there aren’t many. Rep. Tim Ozinga (R-Mokena) is just finishing his first term in the House and he already has over $1 million on hand, but much of that has come from family and family businesses. That said, he’s doing well with donors coming in at $1,000 a pop.
Of the billionaires in the state, Ken Griffin has bailed for Florida, Sam Zell hasn’t given a Republican anything more than $15,000 since 2010, and Neil Bluhm plays both sides, mostly giving to Democrats.
Morningstar honcho Joe Mansueto donated a bunch to Bruce Rauner, but there’s no indication he’s going to be ponying up for legislative races or building a state GOP bench.
That said, the answer, in my eyes, for the GOP to compete with union money that just keeps coming for the Democrats is to get into the board rooms. Businesses can make direct contributions in the state, and getting boards to push reticent CEO’s to push for things they like (tax cuts, tort reform, workers’ comp reform, regulatory reform, etc.) can help the Republicans level the playing field a little bit.
Who is the true leader of the Illinois Republican Party after November 8th?
Donald Trump. That’s all I got. The GOP has a gigantic identity crisis.
Who is the House GOP Leader in the new General Assembly?
The reality is you can’t beat somebody with nobody. While there are names floating around as possible challengers to Jim Durkin (Tim Ozinga, Marty McLaughlin, Dan Caulkins), nobody seems to have a solid base of support within the caucus.
The results in November will be the tell-all.
Which congressional seat is most likely to flip in November?
The obvious answer here is the 13th, where Rodney Davis was drawn out of his district and the new district was made vastly more Democratic. Democrat Nikki Budzinski is running a bit of a stealth campaign thus far, and if Republican Regan Deering can raise some real money, she could at least keep it close, maybe more.
Esther Joy King is also a potential winner to flip the 17th, but Cheri Bustos isn’t running in that district.
My guess is the question was about which incumbent was most likely to lose, and I think the answer remains Lauren Underwood. Her 14th District includes a lot of new rural area where the vote totals will likely get run-up, and if Republican Kendall County Board Chairman Scott Gryder can keep the statewide and national GOP brand off of him, he could fare well trying not to scare off suburban women.
Why does anyone oppose an assault rifle ban in Illinois?
It’s complicated, and I’m the worst pro-gun conservative in the world to give you the “because it’s my right!” basic answer a lot of Republicans give you. What I’ll say is that there’s a real question about what *exactly* can be considered an assault rifle. You say military style? Well, I can show you traditional side-by-side shotguns that have more firepower than an AR-15. How much difference is there in a 5.56 and a .308.
An AR-style rifle fires a smaller (and faster) round and a .308 (a like the Browning hunting rifle your uncle has) is a heavier, more damaging round.
I don’t know why anyone needs an Armalite style rifle. I also don’t hunt, so I don’t have a Browning hanging up here, either. So the answer to your question is: I don’t know.
Is there any connection to Illinois with the Queen?
The Queen visited Chicago in 1959, just seven years after ascending to the throne. Her great grandfather, King Edward VII, spent time in Livingston County in 1860, according to the Pantagraph. Though, he didn’t ascend to the throne until 1901. The most notable royal visit wasn’t a royal (anymore.) Princess Diana was in Chicago in 1996, just a few months before her divorce from (now) King Charles was finalized. She was such a worldwide phenomenon. I remember we had family make the trip up there just to get a glimpse of her.
Queen Elizabeth II died yesterday at the age of 96.