Your Questions...Answered!
House Speaker Chris Welch and House GOP Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savana) speak at an event in Springfield last April.
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OPINION
I like to periodically open it up to your questions. Thanks to all who submitted. We’re not going to use any names to protect identities and employers and biases and all that stuff. Don’t worry, there is plenty of opinion to be found here.
How will House Republican and Democrat internal caucus dynamics be impacted by the results of the primary?
It depends on who wins, I guess. If Rep. Mary Flowers (D-Chicago) somehow pulls off an upset and wins in her district, it’s going to be pretty awkward (even though I’m pretty sure she’s still banned from caucus meetings.) Generally, the rank and file got in line with Welch’s effort to oust Flowers. Rep. Cyril Nichols (D-Chicago) got the message, gave in, and got out of his race.
House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savana) has not so subtly hinted she won’t miss Rep. Adam Niemerg (R-Dieterich) and Rep. Blaine Wilhour (R-Beecher City) if they lose their primaries. I would say that makes the situation awkward, but there’s not a lot of love between McCombie and the Freedom Caucus folks these days anyway.
Progressives in the Senate have generally stayed out of the “establishment” vs. CTU race with appointed Sen. Natalie Toro (D-Chicago). But expect some private grumbling if Senate President Don Harmon spends $1.2 million plus on Toro and she finishes third. Eek.
How does the progressive vs. centrist battle among Democrats play out? Especially in Cook County with the Toro, State’s Attorney, and Circuit Clerk races.
If it weren’t for the Republican Party completely overrun by a bunch of red hatted whackos since 2015, the progressive vs. governing wing of the Democratic Party would be the story dominating American politics.
Chicago has been a high profile center of that fight, especially after super progressive Brandon Johnson won the Mayor’s race last year. Progressives are quickly starting to run the show, and may sweep those big races in two weeks.
Winning is one thing. Governing is another. Just look at Johnson.
I saw the Cook County State’s Attorney’s poll that showed a dead heat. Who has the advantage?
First and foremost, the number of undecideds in that race is bonkers.
O’Neill-Burke busted the caps last week and immediately reported around $850,000 in large contributions, then another $156k over the weekend, and reported around $100,000 last night. Harris reported around $81k yesterday. She has the resources to push the narrative over the last two weeks. With money usually comes advantage, but Clayton Harris III has Toni Preckwinkle’s organization behind her and that ain’t nothin’.
Should people in the suburbs be concerned with the lack of primaries?
Typically, I believe primaries make stronger candidates for general elections. Oppo gets out, candidates hone a message, and they learn how to raise money (most of the time.)
These days, though, it’s sort of the battle between normal and crazy in both parties. And the normies are getting creamed.
So, both House Republicans and Democrats are happy, for instance, that they don’t have to fight multi-million dollar battles to get to a race in the fall between Dennis Reboletti and Marti Deuter.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are hoping they can will Hillary Kurzawa across the finish line to get to Sen. Michael Hastings (D-Frankfort) in November, but she has to get past two far-right candidates first. That’s the difference of making a race viable or a blowout.
So…maybe?
If Nikki Haley makes it out of Super Tuesday, can she mount a credible campaign in Illinois?
It’s hard to imagine she’s making it to Illinois if she gets completely hammered in the 15 GOP primaries today. Recent polls show Trump up 58 in California and Texas, and 47 in North Carolina, so I’m not expecting her to be super competitive in any of the big states. Trump is underperforming polls so far, but I don’t think he’s underperforming that much.
The difference is how much money Haley has continued to raise even after she’s been crushed. She raised $1 million in the 24 hours after she got pounded in South Carolina. So, if the money is still coming in, she can keep rolling. We’ll see if it’s still coming in after a bad night tonight.
There’s also something to be said about sticking around long enough to be the “last man standing” if Trump all of the sudden is out of the race.
How big does Trump win Illinois?
Yuge.
Any guesses for a Trump veep candidate?
No idea, but they’ll be a bootlicker, to be sure.
What office does Darren Bailey run for next?
Don’t rule out that he’s running for re-election to Congress in 2026. More on that for subscribers in the morning.
If Mike Bost wins that race, don’t expect Bailey to go away. He already has a federal account, so don’t be surprised if there’s a U.S. Senate race in the mix.
Name one incumbent in trouble March 19 that nobody is talking about.
Obviously, we’re talking plenty about Flowers, Toro, Wilhour, and Bost.
They would all be huge upsets, but keep an eye on Rep. Sonya Harper (D-Chicago), Rep. Abdelnasser Rashid (D-Bridgeview), and Rep. Matt Hanson (D-Montgomery).
How crazy is this write-in race for House?
This question refers to the race where Rep. Adam Niemerg (R-Dieterich) was kicked off the ballot and the Illinois Education Association recruited Superintendent Jim Acklin to challenge him in a write-in campaign.
(Disclosure: I worked on Acklin’s campaign for the House in 2016 and consider him a friend. I have no role with his new campaign.)
Bottom line: it’s a crap shoot. Acklin has raised $115,000 in large donations so far, mostly from teachers’ unions, and they’re up on TV. Niemerg started the year with around $27k in the bank and has raised about $95,000 in large donations since.
Acklin votes won’t count in Jasper County, which makes up 11% of the vote. That may be enough to swing it against him.
I haven’t found any comparable race to this in the last 20 years. If you know one, please let me know. It’s wild, man.
Will there be a serious race for Congress anywhere this fall?
Probably not. The suburban races all look like snoozers at this point. It’s possible retired Winnebago County Judge Joe McGraw makes a run of things in the 17th District, and Eric Sorensen, the incumbent, hasn’t been a world beater thus far. But that’s a hard district to win. The powers of gerrymandering.
Among typical primary voters, how many are sitting out this year?
When Trump was the incumbent in 2020, there were 542,800 votes in the GOP primary in Illinois. Though, turnout crashed in the days leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2004, for instance, George W. Bush got an unopposed 584,000 votes. I’d probably put the number between those two.
For the Democrats, the 2012 number is probably closest in history. There were about 653,000 votes for President Obama that year. There were 1.67 million in the Democratic primary in 2020. Expect the 2024 number to look more like 2012 than 2020.
How will the migrant situation impact voter attitudes?
This may very well be the question that defines the 2024 cycle from top to bottom.
Immigration looks like it is going to drive Republicans out, but I don’t know how it impacts Democrats. Clearly, there’s some division, especially from urban areas. I’m really excited to see some polling on this through the summer.
