Your Questions...Answered!
Could Paul Vallas’ rise in Chicago be a blueprint for the GOP in the city and suburbs?
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OPINION
I like to periodically open it up to your questions. Thanks to all who submitted. We’re not going to use any names to protect identities and employers and biases and all that stuff. Don’t worry, there is plenty of opinion to be found here.
“Is the Vallas model (conservative Dem focused on crime and blue collar labor) in Chicago a possible road map out of the wilderness for the IL GOP? Does that message play in the suburbs?”
Yes and no. What Vallas has done better than Republicans since Bruce Rauner dismantled any existing GOP fundraising infrastructure is get the “money guys” on board. Look up his campaign contributions. A number of big wigs in the Chicago business community have ponied up tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to Vallas’ campaign. A lot of them may not identify as Republican and especially not as conservative, but what reason have they had to donate to the “pro-business” candidates in recent years? If Republicans can’t get the business community to buy in, they’re going to be out in the wilderness for another decade or more.
As for policy, Paul Vallas is still a Democrat. His fiscal responsibility and public safety message just sounds conservatives because of how far off the reservation the bulk of Democrats have gotten on these issues. Even if a moderate Republican can use these issues in a suburban race, they’re still going to have the Donald Trump/Darren Bailey/QAnon/January 6 of the GOP hung around their necks in a general election. All politics used to be local, but I don’t know how the GOP establishes itself at a local level when the national GOP has disqualified itself to so many moderate suburban voters.
“Are there any other Mayoral races you’re watching?”
I’m keeping an eye on Naperville, Joliet, Springfield, and Champaign. Naperville is the largest non-Chicago city electing a mayor this year and they have an open race. It’s a pretty solid D vs. R race, and it may be a good barometer of where the GOP stands in formerly red DuPage County. Naperville is the fourth largest city in the state and Joliet is the third. Auto dealer Terry D’Arcy’s campaign released a poll this week showing him leading incumbent Bob O’Dekirk (not this guy) by 18 points.
Downstate, the race between incumbent Jim Langfelder and challenger Misty Buscher has a lot of attention in Springfield. Langfelder is seeking a third term but may find himself as the underdog in the final two weeks.
I have a personal interest in Champaign where Deb Frank Feinen is seeking a third term. I did some work on her first two campaigns but am not involved this time around. She’s a former elected Republican (most mayors are nonpartisan) who was endorsed by the local Young Democrats in this race. She’s well regarded by the business community and the center, though if anyone has turned on her, it’s the far right. But they aren’t voting for the other candidates in the race.
“If Cindy Bailey runs, does she have a path to victory and what would that be? Plummer is pretty conservative. How does she differentiate herself?”
Absolutely. There probably isn’t a more recognizable political name among southern Illinois conservatives than “Bailey” right now. Plummer has nearly unlimited funds if he really wants to get down for the fight, but he’s seemed a lot more interested in policy than politics these days. Fundraising could be a challenge for Bailey, though. When both Chris and Mary Miller were on the ballot for the first time in 2020, Chris Miller was unopposed, so they could direct contributors to Mary Miller (plus the gaggle of cash she got from the Freedom Caucus). If Darren Bailey and Cindy Bailey are both asking the same people for money, it will be interesting to see who they’re cutting checks to.
“I’m so disappointed in Republicans right now. What can they do to fix the mess they’re in?”
Get involved. Primary voters need to nominate better candidates, and if the crazy has the corner on the market, it will never get better.
“What’s going to happen with the Bears?”
At this point, it’s hard to say. It seems like a lot of the public discussion has quieted down until the Mayor’s race is settled. There won’t be direct state money for a new stadium anytime soon and, as I’ve said before, the McCaskey family doesn’t have the cash to build a $5 billion stadium complex on their own right now. I’m having a hard time seeing something happen before the legislature adjourns in May. Republican consultant Collin Corbett and former Rep. turned lobbyist Ed Sullivan did an interesting video on the topic yesterday.
“How serious is Governor Pritzker about running for President?”
It’s pretty obvious that he’s serious. He’s not going to challenge Joe Biden in the 2024 primary. Full stop. But Biden is notoriously slow to make these sort of political decisions, and it isn’t that out of the realm of possibility for a guy who would turn 82 right after the 2024 election to take a pass. If Biden does run again, Pritzker’s name will be at the top of the list for 2028. Pritzker, by the way, would only be 63 in 2028, so he has plenty of time.
We talked about this with Rick Pearson from the Tribune on the podcast last week.
“What are the chances JB Pritzker runs for re-election in 2026? If he doesn’t run, what does the field look like?”
I don’t know that I can give you the chances. His people (at least the ones that actually take my calls) aren’t really saying anything about his future, especially until the presidential speculation dies down. But there are a lot of high ranking Democrats in the state that don’t think he will either way. If Pritzker doesn’t run and Dick Durbin doesn’t seek re-election in 2026 (he’ll be 82 a couple of weeks after the election), you’re going to see a huge list of Democrats looking to move up to one of those offices. All of the constitutional officer Democrats (Stratton, Raoul, Giannoulias, Mendoza, Frerichs) will all be mentioned. You’ll definitely see Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi’s name mentioned for Senate. You’d have to think Susana Mendoza would be among the favorites considering her appeal downstate and with the growing Hispanic population in the state and has gotten mountains of good publicity with fiscal responsibility, paying bills on time, and some pro-police legislation. If you’re asking me a 2026 non-Pritzker favorite, that’s who I’m going with.
“What are your thoughts on how the two new Republican leaders are doing?”
House Republicans have done a good job trying to get publicity for some of their issues while Senate Republicans have seemed a little less than aggressive. They’re not going to be particularly relevant legislatively, at least this year, so the real measure will be to see if McCombie or Curran can start raising any money and how their initial candidate recruitment goes.