Your Questions...Answered!
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OPINION
We’ll do this every once in a while. I’ll put out a call and answer your questions:
So, let’s see what you’ve got.
Jen in Lombard:
Will Republicans have a viable candidate for Governor? When I say viable, I don’t mean a Trumper who will do well with conservatives but lose in a landslide, but a Kinzinger or Kirk Republican.
Well, it should be mentioned first that there’s a gigantic difference between Adam Kinzinger and Mark Kirk on policy. Before drawing the ire of the majority of Republicans for his break from the cult of Trumpism, Kinzinger had (and has) a solidly conservative voting record and was rated highly by conservative organizations. Kirk, on the other hand, was the definition of a moderate Republican. Pro-choice, represented the North Shore, and I remember voting for cap and trade got him into trouble with a lot of conservatives back in 2010.
That said, I don’t know that there’s a place in today’s GOP for Mark Kirk. I don’t know if there’s a place in today’s GOP for Adam Kinzinger. I joked the other day Kinzinger probably couldn’t win a GOP primary against a wet paper bag, but, even if he did pull the trigger on a race for U.S. Senate, he’s going to have his hands full getting past an underfunded, extreme primary opponent who gets some traction with Trump devotees, donors, and maybe even the orange tinted one himself.
That said, unless we see one of the current crop for the GOP nomination for governor get a grasp on policy and start honing in a message that can resonate with suburban voters, the answer is no.
Debbie in Alton:
What impact do the elections in Virginia and New Jersey have on the strategy of both parties in Illinois in 2022?
None. Zilch. Zip. Nada.
Off year elections like this year or Louisiana in 2019/2023 occur in a bubble. Louisiana having a Democratic governor doesn’t make it a blue state, and Virginia electing a Republican doesn’t make it a red state. Democrats were surely penalized for not having an infrastructure bill done and the Democrats in Virginia made some pretty big missteps. In New Jersey, Governor Phil Murphy underperformed with suburban voters and some complacency led to some bad beats, like the Senate President losing to a guy who spent something like $2,000. Imagine that happening to Don Harmon.
A lot can and will happen in the next 364 days.
Meg in Bourbonnais:
Is Darren Bailey going to get the Republican nomination? Can he win in November?
If the primary were held today, absolutely. If the general were held today, absolutely not. That said, there’s a long way to go before either of them.
Gregory in Charleston:
Do you foresee additional Republican candidates for governor? What would they be waiting for?
I’m starting to feel like the answer is “no.” From some of the intel I’ve been able to gather, Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) likes the idea of a safe Republican district to help propel him into GOP leadership. That said, I don’t think he’s afraid of the fight with Pritzker, but it doesn’t sound like billionaire donor Ken Griffin is all that excited to get in the mix.
Is there any serious candidate that gets into the mix without Griffin’s money? I don’t know. I have a hard time believing Todd Ricketts is serious, even though he stepped away from his RNC gig this week.
John in Normal:
What’s next for Adam Kinzinger?
Your guess is as good as mine. I don’t expect him on the ballot in 2022. I know there are some people who think he has aspirations to run for President in 2024, but I don’t see it. That’s like trying to canoe upstream with a toothpick for an oar. If his goal is changing the party from the inside, he’s going to need to build up his PAC and start playing in primaries in the House and Senate to take out some of the most egregious sellouts. (Ahem, Ron Johnson.)
If you’re Kinzinger, what’s the point of running for re-election? You’re raising a ton of money for your PAC and you can go sign a deal to be a commentator on CNN or for NBC and make oodles of money spreading your message for free. Maybe there’s a place for him when Trumpism fades, but I don’t think it’s 2022.
He reads this newsletter, so I’ll tell Congressman this: don’t go away. Even if you don’t feel like your party wants to hear what you have to say, keep talking. Your voice is an important one.
Pam in Peoria:
Why are so few elected officials in either party willing to stand up against their party and do what’s right? Whether it’s national Republicans and Trump or Illinois Democrats and corruption, why is it so rare to put the state or country before party?
This question was in response to a Kinzinger story I posted the other day, so I’ll start there. Adam Kinzinger is a rare bird in today’s GOP. I’ve mentioned this before that GOP voters of 2020 or 2021 don’t at all sound like GOP voters from a decade ago.
Working a GOP legislative primary in 2012, the questions you got at events usually centered around being pro-gun and pro-life. In a 2020 congressional primary, the comments from primary voters centered solely on Donald Trump, how Trumpy you were, and how quickly you would trade in your beliefs to whatever the then-President decided to believe that day.
The party didn’t even look like itself. Kinzinger got caught up in that. I’m incredibly proud of him for having the guts to stand up to some of the nonsense coming from inside his party. I wish more Republicans had those cojones.
I don’t have as much perspective for you on Democrats. In Illinois, it seems that Democrats that I’ve talked to believe the corruption problems are isolated from them. “I do it the right way” or “That’s an old school guy.” Unfortunately, there seems to be a lot of go with the flow. That’s why indicted Sen. Tom Cullerton (D-Villa Park) is still serving.
Mandy in Quincy:
I’m a Democrat and pro-vaccine. Once those who want to be vaccinated, including most kids, can be soon, when do you think Governor Pritzker removes the mask mandate in schools?
Don’t hold your breath. Obviously, the indoor mask mandate is still in effect now and the Governor has indicated it will probably stick around until after the holidays. And when asked about it last week, he made it clear to differentiate that the indoor mask mandate and the school mask mandate were on different time frames. My gut feeling? I don’t think it gets lifted before the end of this school year.
Holly in East Moline:
It seems like the biggest, most controversial bills are getting passed at the 11th hour, often late at night, generally with little chance for real debate and input. Is that accurate? What can we, as citizens, do to get a more transparent government process in the future?
You’re right. And this can be really frustrating. It’s one thing to expect the legislature to be working late on May 31st. It’s been that way for a long time and likely won’t change. But the early January lame duck session that didn’t move important bills until literally 3 or 4 in the morning is inexcusable. Frankly, it makes leadership look disorganized and sloppy and you know rush jobs mean mistakes are made. And with the exception of May 31st, there’s no need to have these late night vote sessions. There’s no reason the criminal justice bill couldn’t have waited two weeks for the new General Assembly or congressional maps could have waited from late Thursday night to Friday morning.
I should mention Rep. Andrew Chesney (R-Freeport) filed a bill earlier this year that would essentially prohibit the General Assembly from passing legislation between midnight and 6:00 A.M. unless leaders of both parties agree to it. That bill isn’t going to get a hearing or a vote, obviously, but it is out there.
Angie in La Grange:
The Pritzker administration has said it will work on a “reasonable” approach to the state’s unfunded pension liabilities. What does that “reasonable” approach entail? I think that approach will have a large impact on attracting business to Illinois and keeping businesses in Illinois.
This will be a very interesting thing to see develop as time goes on, especially if the Governor wins a second term. So far, he and the Democratic majority have made the state’s statutorily mandated pension payment, but that number is going to keep eating up a larger and larger percentage of the state’s General Revenue Fund (operating dollars, basically) as time goes on. That means, to keep up with pension payments alone, the state will either need to cut other programs to free up the money, get more income through economic growth or tax increases, or start to restructure some of the pension liabilities.
The courts have already said the pensions promised to retirees and current state employees may not be diminished in any way in a very plain text reading of the state constitution. Even if you move every single new hire into a 401k-style retirement account, I don’t know that you can use those savings to make up ground on the current fund.
Also, unless the law changes, I don’t think you an use any of the American Rescue Plan dollars from last year to pay down pensions.
Jesse in Minooka:
Who are some first term members of either the House or Senate (of both parties) that we may not of heard of yet that can be real starts in the long run. Maybe even Governor?
It’s hard to know if anyone has gubernatorial aspirations, but the first freshman that comes to mind is Rep. Margaret Croke (D-Chicago). She worked in the Pritzker administration, for the Clinton campaign, and has oodles of political connections. She’s young (not sure that she’s even 30), bright, telegenic, has a young family, and can absolutely sell her “pragmatic progressive” policy around the state without looking like a beanie and Birkenstock wearin’ hippie.
As for Republicans, the first name that comes to mind is Rep. Tim Ozinga (R-Mokena). He’s the son of concrete magnate Marty Ozinga, who recently passed away. He won the south suburban seat held for many years by Margo McDermed. While not really a policy dynamo yet, the dude is raising some serious cash. Ozinga filed with over $1 million in the bank at the end of the last quarter. To put that in perspective for a freshman, the only two other Republicans in the legislature with a million on hand were Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods) and Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), who, of course, is running for Governor. You can make yourself very powerful within your own caucus when you start throwing cash at tough races.
Other Democrats I would mention are Sen. Cristina Pacione-Zayas (D-Chicago) and Sen. Robert Peters (D-Chicago). Republicans I would include Republican names like Rep. Amy Elik (R-Alton) who has some actual financial background and won a competitive race last year and Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills) has executive experience as a Mayor.
I think that’s plenty for now. Drop me a note if you have any thoughts or questions.
