What to Watch for on Election Day
By the end of the night Tuesday, more than 6 million Illinoisans will have their votes tallied.
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There are precious few races around the state to watch today (Thanks, Democrat gerrymandering!), but here’s a running list of top races around the state:
(* denotes incumbent)
Congressional:
17th District, Eric Sorensen* (D) vs. Joe McGraw (R)
New polling indicates Sorensen is in the driver’s seat heading into Election Day, but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise. If I question the poll it’s that Sorensen is outpacing Vice President Harris in that district, and Sorensen underperformed Biden’s 2020 number when he was elected two years ago.
Senate:
40th District, Patrick Joyce* (D) vs. Phil Nagel (R)
The question may turn into whether Republicans regret their decision to pull out of this district with more than a month to go. Trump may overperform in the district, which may explain why Senate Democrats have continued to spend gobs of money. Joyce will win, but it may be a question of “what if?”
House:
45th District, Marti Deuter (D) vs. Dennis Reboletti (R)
This is a race to replace outgoing freshman Rep. Jenn Ladisch-Douglass (D-Elmhurst), who won by around 300 votes two years ago. Deuter, an Elmhurst City Council member, is perceived as the favorite, but Reboletti is a fixture in the area and could make this specifically close.
47th District, Amy Grant* (R) vs. Jackie Williamson (D)
Grant has long been on the minds of Democrats and they drew her into a district that went +12 for Biden in 2020. Williamson ran two years ago but didn’t get meaningful help from House Democrats. That’s not the case this time as they’re all in to flip this DuPage County seat.
52nd District, Martin McLaughlin* (R) vs. Maria Peterson (D)
McLaughlin’s far northwest suburban district was a Biden district in 2020 and Democrats have gone in bigtime to take him out in 2024. He hasn’t had financial support from House Republicans and Democrats have spent more than $800,000 on broadcast TV to take him out. McLaughlin was rated as our must vulnerable legislator in our final ratings.
76th District, Liz Bishop (R) vs. Amy Murri-Briel (D)
In this open seat, Democrats gerrymandered the seat being vacated by Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) by adding the Northern Illinois University campus into the traditionally LaSalle County-based district. It’s one of the few districts the GOP is competing on cable TV and Republicans hope their moderate candidate, Bishop, can sneak out a win over the more progressive Murri-Briel.
79th District, Jackie Haas* (R) vs. Billy Morgan (D)
Democrats like the candidate, former Pat Quinn aide Billy Morgan, to make a run at Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais), but they haven’t spent the kind of money that makes them look serious. The GOP is supe confident they’ll keep this seat, but Morgan is hoping the pile of money Senate Democrats are spending on Joyce could help him overperform expectations.
97th District, Harry Benton* (D) vs. Gabby Shanahan (R)
If Republicans are ever going to get out of their superminority h#ll, they need to pick off a district or two like this one. (See more below.) Benton has stepped in it a couple of times over the last few weeks, but over $900k in Chicago broadcast TV for him is a tough hill to climb, but the GOP thinks Shanahan, their rockstar recruit this cycle, may be able to do it.
104th District, Brandun Schweizer* (R) vs. Jarrett Clem
Schweizer was appointed to replace former Rep. Mike Marron in a district that includes much of southwest Champaign, which has seriously trended Democrat in the last few years. Clem is a moderate union guy and has brought in a ton of cash. Both sides think it’s a toss up.
112th District, Katie Stuart* (D) vs. Jay Keeven
This race got a lot of publicity this spring as Democrats tried to stop candidate slating to keep Keeven off the ballot. It probably isn’t moving numbers now, but Keeven is working his tail off and the GOP has growing optimism here.
114th District, Kevin Schmidt* (R) vs. LaToya Greenwood
Schmidt upset Grenwood in the old East St. Louis-based district two years ago, but the remap is proving this ain’t the old Wyvetter Younge district. Even Democrats are starting to admit privately Greenwood is going to have a tough time taking this one back.
