"What Are You Hearing?"
Political folks are known to ask each other “what are you hearing?” on Election Day.
There’s a thing in politics where people desperate for information on Election Day just send a flurry of texts to their friends in the business asking “what are you hearing?” It’s usually a vague anecdote about turnout or what kind of whiskey they’re drinking after this thing is over. But, I asked a heap of people yesterday, both Democrats and Republicans, “what are you hearing?” I’m not going to identify anyone so they can continue to speak candidly.
City of Chicago and Cook early vote/vote by mail turnout is low so far.
Madison County Democratic areas are voting heavier than in 2018.
Nikki Budzinski will have to run it up big in the Metro East and Champaign-Urbana to make up ground in red rural areas. It may have been drawn D+7, but it’ll be a lot closer than that.
“So many Supreme Court ads.”
“Red wave is coming. In the suburbs all weekend and things feel good for Republicans.”
[Republicans] “looking good” for Supreme Court.
Lauf, Pekau up, calling Esther Joy King “a lock.”
Bailey loses by 3-5%
House GOP gain a few, SGOP gains 1 or 2, otherwise Dems hold.
Budzinski wins but “it’s very close.”
“It’s all a mixed bag of uncertainty. This is the worst election for predicting outcomes.”
Elik will romp, Korte/Stuart and Harriss/Tharp will be super close.
Appears things are closing. “The question is does that mean Dems win by 1 instead of 5 or do races flip to GOP?” SGOP picks up 2-3, HGOP gets 3-4.
Budzinski race way too close for comfort.
Union members are “certainly engaged and fired up” about Worker’s Rights Amendment.
17th Congressional is too close to call. “We’re all on the edge of our seats.”
Bloomington/Peoria district (Chung/Preston) “could be a pickup for House D’s.”
Republicans have momentum, R+4 to R+5 generic ballot. “Should be a good night.”
“Doesn’t seem to bee much enthusiasm about the election” in this person’s neck of southern Illinois.
Stava-Murray may have a real race and be in trouble, Reboletti may be surging at the right time.
Casten is about to be rejected by many of the white suburban women who propelled him to Congress.
Guessing Pritzker wins by a meager 4-5%.
(from a Republican): Pritzker by 10.
“…not sure if red wave gives [GOP] big wins or just some wins.”
“National wave for Republicans is getting more powerful by the hour.”
Expect GOP to win one of the suburban congressional districs. Dems were “too greedy” in trying to get GOP down to 5 seats.
“I don’t see the suburban Republicans who left the party over Rauner and Trump voting for seven statewide Democrats.” Expects some will flip to Brady or Demmer.
Dem: “I am nervous about Budzinski, Turner, and Tharp.”
“Hearing both Supreme Court races are neck and neck.”
Foster/Lauf “will be a toss up” and it has been underreported how Lauf has gotten her ship righted.
“Environment continues to move in the GOP way, just not sure if it is enough to compensate for the massive spending differential.”
“SGOP pick up at least 4 (Harriss, Hamilton, Lewis, Sheehan.) Says “legit chance” at picking up 6.
A different GOPer reacting: “If they do, let’s build a statue to McConchie.”