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"What Are You Hearing?"

Political folks are known to ask each other “what are you hearing?” on Election Day.

There’s a thing in politics where people desperate for information on Election Day just send a flurry of texts to their friends in the business asking “what are you hearing?” It’s usually a vague anecdote about turnout or what kind of whiskey they’re drinking after this thing is over. But, I asked a heap of people yesterday, both Democrats and Republicans, “what are you hearing?” I’m not going to identify anyone so they can continue to speak candidly.

  • City of Chicago and Cook early vote/vote by mail turnout is low so far.

  • Madison County Democratic areas are voting heavier than in 2018.

  • Nikki Budzinski will have to run it up big in the Metro East and Champaign-Urbana to make up ground in red rural areas. It may have been drawn D+7, but it’ll be a lot closer than that.

  • “So many Supreme Court ads.”

  • “Red wave is coming. In the suburbs all weekend and things feel good for Republicans.”

  • [Republicans] “looking good” for Supreme Court.

  • Lauf, Pekau up, calling Esther Joy King “a lock.”

  • Bailey loses by 3-5%

  • House GOP gain a few, SGOP gains 1 or 2, otherwise Dems hold.

  • Budzinski wins but “it’s very close.”

  • “It’s all a mixed bag of uncertainty. This is the worst election for predicting outcomes.”

  • Elik will romp, Korte/Stuart and Harriss/Tharp will be super close.

  • Appears things are closing. “The question is does that mean Dems win by 1 instead of 5 or do races flip to GOP?” SGOP picks up 2-3, HGOP gets 3-4.

  • Budzinski race way too close for comfort.

  • Union members are “certainly engaged and fired up” about Worker’s Rights Amendment.

  • 17th Congressional is too close to call. “We’re all on the edge of our seats.”

  • Bloomington/Peoria district (Chung/Preston) “could be a pickup for House D’s.”

  • Republicans have momentum, R+4 to R+5 generic ballot. “Should be a good night.”

  • “Doesn’t seem to bee much enthusiasm about the election” in this person’s neck of southern Illinois.

  • Stava-Murray may have a real race and be in trouble, Reboletti may be surging at the right time.

  • Casten is about to be rejected by many of the white suburban women who propelled him to Congress.

  • Guessing Pritzker wins by a meager 4-5%.

  • (from a Republican): Pritzker by 10.

  • “…not sure if red wave gives [GOP] big wins or just some wins.”

  • “National wave for Republicans is getting more powerful by the hour.”

  • Expect GOP to win one of the suburban congressional districs. Dems were “too greedy” in trying to get GOP down to 5 seats.

  • “I don’t see the suburban Republicans who left the party over Rauner and Trump voting for seven statewide Democrats.” Expects some will flip to Brady or Demmer.

  • Dem: “I am nervous about Budzinski, Turner, and Tharp.”

  • “Hearing both Supreme Court races are neck and neck.”

  • Foster/Lauf “will be a toss up” and it has been underreported how Lauf has gotten her ship righted.

  • “Environment continues to move in the GOP way, just not sure if it is enough to compensate for the massive spending differential.”

  • “SGOP pick up at least 4 (Harriss, Hamilton, Lewis, Sheehan.) Says “legit chance” at picking up 6.

  • A different GOPer reacting: “If they do, let’s build a statue to McConchie.”

Patrick Pfingsten

@pfingstenshow

patrick@theillinoize.com