What Do Illinois Republicans Want to Be?
Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) is given little chance to win the general election.
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OPINION
If Illinois Republicans ever want to be competitive in statewide elections, they need to understand what it takes to win.
Darren Bailey, the super conservative (even though the doomed Richard Irvin campaign laughably tried to convince us he’s a Democrat) State Senator from Xenia, a town of 350 in a county of 13,000, ran a spectacular primary campaign. He used his folks-y southern Illinois charm to touch on the populist anger of downstaters over Governor JB Pritzker’s mitigations in the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bailey won a local court decision against Pritzker, then pulled the suit when it became clear he would lose the appeal in a higher court. Bailey began traveling the state holding tent revival-style events with aggrieved business owners, churchgoers, and parents angry their kids’ schools were closed for in-person classes. He’s 100% pro-life, even in the cases of rape and incest and has yet to outline plans for crime or infrastructure or fixing pensions.
Any objective mind could look at this race and see a southern Illinois farmer who has passed exactly two bills during his 3 1/2 years in Springfield, his conservative leanings, Trump support, and fundraising issues (minus the millions entered by billionaire Dick Uihlein) has to has to see he’s a longshot to win the race for Governor. So why vote for him?
Obviously, Trumpism played a part in Bailey’s surge. He played to that crowd from the start, and benefitted with all the earned media the Trump rally in Quincy got him right before Election Day. It sure seems clear the majority of Republican voters either don’t know that he can’t win, or simply doesn’t care.
To be fair, I’m not saying Bailey can’t win. In a normal year, yes, that’s exactly what I would be saying. But this year is shaping up to be anything but normal. With gas prices over $6 in the northern half of the state much of the last month, people choosing between food or the gasoline needed to get to work, exploding electric bills, the chance of brownouts during the hot summer months, COVID, crime, and a Governor that only seems to be interested in talking to half of his constituents, he could be in play if something goes terribly wrong.
Bailey is still the underdog, but let’s be clear, Republicans could have recruited and nominated a candidate that was far more prepared to compete statewide. Bailey has really stuck his foot in it by doubling down on his statement that Chicago is a “hellhole.” One, Chicago media is going to want your head on a platter when you insult their city, and two, it just sounds like an insult to the two-thirds of the state that lives in Cook and the four immediate collar counties (DuPage, Lake, Will, Kane). Most people consider McHenry and Kendall as part of the collars, too, but I’m trying to be nice.
For a Republican to win statewide, that candidate needs to get 20% of the vote in the City of Chicago. In 2018, Gov. Bruce Rauner got 15% in city limits and lost. In 2014, he received 21% in the city and beat Pat Quinn.
Rauner was an anomoly in many instances, but Bill Brady for Governor in 2010, Jim Ryan for Governor in 2002, Jim Oberweis for Senate in 2014 and others were simply too conservative to appeal to the moderate voters in the suburbs.
It almost feels like Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, and Mark Kirk wouldn’t even be welcome in the Republican Party anymore. The problem is they’re the Republicans who could govern.
Republican voters need to figure out if someone they agree with 90%, of the time like Edgar or Kirk, and could actually get things done in Springfield or Washington is better than a candidate like Oberweis or Brady, who can’t win.
Do Republican voters want to be a party that elects people to change the direction of this state, or do they want to “fight” with outlier candidates that simply can’t appeal in a state as broad and diverse as Illinois?
If the GOP doesn’t start recruiting and nominating candidates who can win and govern, they’re going to be in the wilderness for another generation.