Updated: Top 10 Legislative Seats Likely to Flip in November
Campaign finance reports are in from the 3rd quarter. We know who is spending money where and how much Democrats are outspending their Republican opponents. We have a sense of who is running a good campaign and who isn’t. So, with two weeks to go, we present to you an updated list of our top 10 legislative seats likely to flip in November.
Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville)
Stava-Murray should absolutely be higher on this list. She represents a district former Governor Bruce Rauner won the district by 23 points in 2014, though it proceeded to go to both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and JB Pritzker in 2018. Stava-Murray has been in a high profile battle with Speaker Michael Madigan and isn’t taking any cash from him. Add in the fact that she has a super credible Republican opponent, and this should be high on the flip list. But neither Repubican Laura Hois or the House GOP have brought in enough cash to turn the tables heavily on Stava-Murray. Even after spending just $11,000 so far and having around $75,000 in the bank, she may just have enough to squeak by. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 5)
Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine)
Morrison won re-election over Democrat Maggie Trevor two years ago by just 43 votes. For the longest time, House Democrats didn’t put any cash into Trevor’s rematch effort this year. Things have heated up significantly in recent weeks and Morrison has stayed roughly even in spending so far. But Trevor has a big cash advantage for the final two weeks, and in a district Hillary Clinton won by 13 points four years ago, Morrison may be too conservative to hold on. (PREVIOUS RANKING: Not Rated)
Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steeleville)
One thought in a heavily pro-Trump conservative district is that Rep. Nathan Reitz would be buried by TV ads and momentum at this point. But, Speaker Madigan and his cup runneth over. Reitz has outspent Republican David Friess by more than 2:1 thusfar and has a roughly $400,000-to-$25,000 cash lead headed down the stretch. There’s also no sign of where the money to compete will come from. The only think keeping Reitz on the list? Trump won the district 66% to 30% in 2016. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 3)
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield)
A few weeks ago, a lot of Republicans I talked to had written Batinick off. He’s being outspent more than 2:1 and his well-funded Democrat opponent has a big cash advantage. But the GOP is hoping $200,000 from billionaire Ken Griffin is enough to get Batinick across the line. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 4)
Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont)
Stephens should probably be toast at this point and probably would be if it were any other Republican. Stephens is being outspent and is just now starting to buy TV ads and Democrats are beginning to light him up on TV for alleged corruption. Yet, I’ve been told his polling remains strong. Not to say Stephens is safe as this district will probably handily vote for Joe Biden. But he’s a lot more in the game on October 20 than I expected him to be. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 1)
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva)
This is a district you wouldn’t typically expect to find on this list. There’s plenty of rural area, including around Hampshire to the west and Huntley to the north. It also includes some traditionally conservative suburbs, like St. Charles and Geneva. But Donald Trump won the district by just 300 votes. Ugaste has been out spent 8:1 and Democrat Martha Paschke has a roughly $550,000 to $50,000 cash advantage heading into the last two weeks. Ugaste hasn’t been able to afford a single TV ad while Paschke has spent more than $425,000 on the air. Huge advantage. (PREVIOUS RANKING: Not Rated)
Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville)
Wehrli has been outspent 6:1 (are you noticing a trend here?), has a cash disadvantage of more than 6:1, and Democrat Janet Yang-Rohr is hitting him on broadcast TV. Add the fact that this district went for JB Pritzker and Hillary Clinton (Clinton got over 50%!) and it spells a lot of trouble for Wehrli. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 7)
OPEN (Oberweis)
In the race to replace Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove), who is running for Congress, Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) has run a seemingly perfect campaign thus far. She’s raking in cash, is up on broadcast TV, she’s defining her underfunded opponent as extreme, and is in the catbird’s seat. This is almost a certain flip at this point. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 6)
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton)
Grant seemed to be in fine shape until a recorded call surfaced in which she made racist and homophobic comments about her Black and gay opponent. Fundraising has dried up, the House GOP has apparently pulled the plug, and she was down to around $10,000 for the final two weeks. This is a typically Republican district, the seat was held by Jeanne Ives, but Democrat Ken Mejia-Beal has just been raking in the cash. This thing is all but over. (PREVIOUS RANKING: Not Rated)
Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee)
Skillicorn’s campaign, if you can even call it that, has been a disaster from the start. He hinted this summer that he would pull out of the race but never did. House Republicans haven’t given him a penny, he hasn’t raised many more pennies, and Democrats are funneling money to their candidate, Suzanne Ness. Hillary Clinton even won the district in 2016 (by 31 votes). Ness spent around $750,000 in the 2nd & 3rd quarters combined. Skillicorn spent $1,200. This one is gone. (PREVIOUS RANKING: 2)
Three races dropped off the list, Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca), Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria), and Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton). There’s still a lot of ground to cover of the last couple of weeks, but the Democratic money advantage in these races aren’t going away.