Will Trump Verdict Further Hurt Suburban GOP Candidates?
Former President Donald Trump speaking at a rally near Quincy in 2022.
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Does former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction last week hurt vulnerable suburban Republicans worse than the political headwinds they already faced, or has the unpopular former president already damaged suburban Republicans enough?
We’ve told you before seven House Republicans are defending seats won by President Biden in 2020, five of which are in the suburbs. Two other suburban Republicans are defending districts Trump won by two points or less.
Republicans have hopes of picking up at least 3 Democrat-held suburban House seats (45th- OPEN, 51st- Syed, 97th- Benton), while Senate Republicans believe they have an outside shot at competing in one suburban district (19th- Hastings).
With all of the Illinois GOP’s woes from Trump’s bad performances in the state to messaging struggles to lagging fundraising, does the latest bad news put the final nail in their electoral coffin in November?
In conversations with multiple GOP consultants (who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely) and former party leaders, many believe Trump could weigh suburban Republicans down further, but many more say the damage is likely already done.
Trump’s numbers being “baked in” comes up a lot in these conversations.
“My gut tells me that it won’t matter that much,” one GOP operative said. “Opinions [of Trump] are baked in. I could see it actually helping Trump with persuadables who hate him but think he’s being targeted because he disrupts the status quo. That could help Republicans.”
“The perceptions of Trump are already baked in,” said Pat Brady, a former Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party. “Stay on inflation, the Illinois budget, and the border. Whichever side is talking about the trial is losing.”
Others believe Republicans need to avoid repeated media questions about Trump.
“'[The verdict] means headaches and drama for a month, especially when dealing with the press and the amped up base,” said a longtime GOP consultant.
“I expect candidate questionnaires from media outlets in the Chicagoland area to inquire about every candidate’s opinion on Trump,” another operative said. “This poses a challenge as down-ballot Republicans must balance the need for base voters while appealing to swing voters.”
Not to mention how Democrats will attempt to push Trump on any legislative candidate, no matter how much they try to distance themselves from the scandal-riddled politician.
“Republican candidates in the suburbs are screwed this cycle,” the consultant said. “Democrats are gonna do everything in their power to tie GOP candidates to Trump, who is now a convicted felon that also tried to overthrow democracy. Couple that with the issue of abortion, it could be a long fall for GOP candidates.”
Many GOP insiders say Republicans should be avoiding the Trump issue at all costs.
“They need to avoid making the mistake of assuming most of the public cares about this as much as they do,” a consultant said. “Cost of living didn’t stop being the top issue because a [an] orange man lost a trial.”
“It’s time to distance themselves if they have any hope of surviving in November,” said former House GOP Leader Jim Durkin. “This is a game of addition. In the suburbs and collar [counties], Trump is a subtraction.”
But distancing from the standard-bearer of a political party in a presidential election year is not easy, said one operative.
“Republicans will find it increasingly difficult to separate themselves from Trump, who is highly unpopular in the suburbs, especially among women,” said a suburban GOP operative. “The New York verdict only reinforces the character concerns of these voters.”
And, it seems, you can count on Democrats making it an issue for Republicans all summer and fall.
“Unfortunately for Illinoisans, the presidential race is meaningless and the state will vote overwhelmingly for Biden again,” an operative said. “But Democrats in the suburbs will still be on offense non-stop, trying to link GOP candidates to Trump, the convicted felon.”