Top 10 Legislative Seats Likely to Flip in November
With Labor Day as the traditional “kickoff” to the final stretch of a campaign season, we’ve pored though fundraising numbers, previous results, demographics, talking to smart folks, and maybe looking into a crystal ball to find the 10 legislative races most likely to flip on (or after) November 3.
Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca)
Pappas would likely be higher on this if not for the untimely passing of GOP nominee Michael Camerer in June. Republicans nominated former state senate candidate Seth Lewis for the seat last month, but he’s been behind the 8-ball in search of fundraising and a campaign organization. Add that to the inability for Lewis to go door-to-door in the coronavirus era, and he’s in a tough spot. When adding cash on hand as of July 1 along with donations over $1,000 since then, Pappas has around a $330,000 to $14,000 cash lead over Lewis.
Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria)
This may be the district Republicans think they have their best (and maybe only) shot at picking up in 2020. But it is an uphill climb for Tazewell County Treasurer Mary Burress. Koehler, who has been in the Senate since 2006, has a 7-to-1 cash lead over Burress, but Republicans have to believe they can win the seat in the vast rural area outside of Peoria. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the district by 1.3%, and Bruce Rauner won the district by 1.4% in 2014. Conventional thinking says Republicans are hoping to pick up in heavy Trump areas in rural Fulton and Tazewell counties while Democrats hope urban areas in Peoria will provide a firewall for Koehler.
Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton)
Some Republican heavyweights may feel better about the GOP chances in the neighboring 112th district against Democrat Rep. Katie Stuart, but Rep. Monica Bristow only won the 111th District by 356 votes two years ago. Governor JB Pritzker won the district by 1.8% in 2018, but former Governor Bruce Rauner won the district by 16.5% in 2014. Democrats are clearly concerned as some of Bristow’s fellow House Democrats have dumped around $250,000 into her campaign in the past week or so. Bristow has raised about $1,000,000, and she’ll need every penny to buy broadcast TV in St. Louis. Aside from money, the biggest problem for Republicans may be their candidate. Amy Elik is being outraised nearly 10-to-1 and running on hardcore conservative issues may not help in a 50/50 district.
Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville)
Wehrli’s district may be indicative of the struggles Republicans are having in suburban areas nationwide. Wehrli won his race by around 4% two years ago while Governor JB Pritzker won the district by around .5%. Hillary Clinton won the district by 16.8% in 2016 and Governor Rauner beat Pat Quinn in the district by around 30% in 2014. Much has changed in the era of Trump. As Speaker Mike Madigan’s committees are flushed with cash, Wehrli trails Democrat Janet Yang-Rohr around $328,000 to around $160,000.
OPEN (Oberweis)
Sen. Jim Oberweis is leaving this seat for another run for Congress, leaving Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) seeking to move up. Villa is outraising her opponent, conservative Jeanette Ward (R-West Chicago) around 5-to-1. Oberweis won his last race by around 9% and Gov. Rauner won the district by 2.6%. Hillary Clinton won the district four years ago by 3.1% and its unlikely President Trump will inflate the ticket affluent suburban areas in the district.
Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville)
Few freshman Democrats have made quite the splash that Stava-Murray has since she won her first race by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2018. Stava-Murray ran without Madigan’s cash in 2018, filed a discrimination claim against fellow Democrats before she was sworn in to office, briefly said she was running for U.S. Senate in 2020 but stepped back quickly, was the only Democrat not to vote for Madigan for Speaker, and more recently, joined just a handful of Democrats to call on Madigan to resign. She faces Laura Hois of Downers Grove, a moderate Republican who is grandmotherly enough to get ticket splitters in a district Hillary Clinton won by 16 points four years ago. Because Stava-Murray is not taking (or not being offered) any Democratic Party cash, she is the only contested Democrat trailing her Republican opponent in cash. Stava-Murray has cash on hand around $10,000, compared to around $61,000 for Hois.
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield)
Did I say Grant Wehrli’s district was indicative of GOP suffering in the suburbs? Well, there’s also Rep. Mark Batinick’s district, which has grown surburbia to the west between Oswego and Joliet, and those aren’t really Republican voters right now. Batinick won his race by about 600 votes two years ago, while JB Pritzker won the by 2.4%. Hillary Clinton won the district by 2.8%, but Bruce Rauner won the district by 23.7% in 2014. In Republican politics, 2014 feels like a lifetime ago. Batinick’s challenger, Harry Benton, is also outraising him around 2-to-1.
Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steeleville)
House Democrats are backing up the proverbial Brinks truck to hold on to this seat. But Rep. Nathan Reitz may be picking a bad time to be a Democrat in southern Illinois. Reitz, who is the son of former State Representative Dan Reitz, was appointed to the seat held by Jerry Costello II, who took a post in the Pritzker administration. Republicans see this seat as a prime pickup opportunity, even at a cash disadvantage. That’s because this district is Trump country. Bruce Rauner won the district by 15.3% in 2018 and 32.1% in 2014. Trump won the district by 36.3% in 2016.
Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee)
Realistically, Skillicorn probably shouldn’t be anywhere near the top of the list. But over the past few weeks, there has been speculation that Skillicorn would withdraw from the ballot. He’s even apparently told colleagues he was quitting. Skillicorn did not withdraw before the August 29 deadline, but some Republicans say the State Board of Elections may still remove him from the ballot if election authorities have not printed ballots yet. I asked Skillicorn by text Monday about reported plans to withdraw and he responded, “Who told you that?” He did not respond to any further questions. Skillicorn hasn’t raised any large donations since July 1, while Democrats are beefing up challenger Suzanne Ness. She has around $370,000 cash to Skillicorn’s $80,000. Hillary Clinton barely won the district in 2016, so whether Skillicorn is on the ballot or not, it could be tough for the GOP to keep the seat.
Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont)
After the resignation of Rep. Mike McAuliffe, the last Republican to represent any of the City of Chicago, he was replaced by powerful Rosemont Mayor Brad Stephens. Stephens, who hasn’t been hit with the is-he or isn’t-he corrupt line of attack yet, is already seeing a challenger get big money from Madigan’s coffers. Stephens faces Chicago firefighter Michelle Darbro. Darbro has received around $450,000 in support, much in the form of mailers and support from Democrats and unions since July 1. She has about $475,000 compared to around $200,000 for Stephens. JB Pritzker and Hillary Clinton won the district, though Bruce Rauner won it in 2014. McAuliffe was unopposed two years ago, and now, it appears Democrats think this is their best pickup opportunity.
Obviously, none of these are predictions, just some analysis of where we stand on September 8. A lot can change between now and when ballots go out (with a gigantic number of mail in votes) and when votes are counted November 3.
