Ten Things We're Watching on Municipal Election Day in Illinois
Chicago Mayor candidates Cook County Board member Brandon Johnson and former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas at a debate in March.
OPINION
Let’s start with the Chicago Mayoral race:
Turnout, turnout, turnout
This is and will likely be the answer to every election for the rest of time. As of last night, around 293,000 votes have been cast (185,000 early votes and 108,000 mail-in ballots). It’s not apples to apples because mail-in ballots have become far more baked in institutionally since the pandemic, but in 2019, a total of around 165,000 ballots total had been cast, so we’re far outpacing that number from four years ago. There were about 527,000 total votes in 2019, so we’ll see if the same day vote gets us close to that number. Logic tells you same day voters break for Vallas, so he’s hoping for big turnout.
Will the weather have an impact?
There was a lot of talk that some severe weather was expected to blow through this afternoon. The Chicago Board of Elections even put out a release yesterday urging people to vote early. The National Weather Service forecast I looked at early this morning was less than ominous. Heavy rains in the final two hours of voting hours probably hurts Johnson more than Vallas, but who really knows at this point? I don’t have a lot of severe weather memories for elections here (fill me in if you remember one). I do remember the primary in 2006 where we got a blizzard the night before the primary. I remember going down to a small town where three sweet old ladies slept on the floor of the town hall to get the polls open on time. No blizzards today, I hope.
The demographics to watch
We won’t know the results obviously, but the results to watch are in Latino majority wards in the city and which full-court press for those voters panned out. Vallas has done a really impressive job under the radar trying to court older, less progressive Black voters. I’d also keep an eye to see how Vallas runs up the score in some of the more conservative wards. Lightfoot got 82% in the 45th Ward in 2019. Hard time believing Vallas hits that kind of number.
Is it possible it isn’t decided tonight?
Absolutely. It looks like there are some 92,000 mail in ballots remaining as of last night. Obviously those all won’t come in, but there will be more than enough left if this comes down to 20-30,000 votes either way tonight. So, stay tuned.
Naperville may show how far the GOP has fallen
Obviously, mayoral jobs around the state are officially non-partisan, but we generally know if a mayor is a Republican or Democrat. Naperville’s outgoing Mayor, Steve Chirico, is a longtime Republican who was elected in 2015 but was sort of excised from the party by the Trump crowd in 2016. A lot has changed since then. Naperville is no longer represented in the legislature by a Republican and the GOP has lost its hat around DuPage County in recent years. If the Republican in the race, Scott Wehrli, were to win, it would come as a bit of a surprise. (Wehrli’s first cousin, Grant, was a state representative.) The Democrat in the race, city councilman Benny White is the favorite, and if he prevails, it may be further proof of the GOP’s downfall in the suburbs.
Joliet could be the opposite
While Naperville has become more liberal and white collar in recent years, Joliet is a blue collar longtime union stronghold that hasn’t trended as far left as other parts of the suburbs. It appears incumbent Mayor Bob O’Dekirk is likely to lose today to businessman Terry D’Arcy. “It’s not a matter of if, but how much,” one insider told me yesterday. It’s not the Joliet is turning red, but is interesting that a more conservative candidate is bucking the trend of GOP struggles in the suburbs.
Can Langfelder survive?
Springfield’s Mayor, Jim Langfelder, is hanging on for dear life from a challenge from the right in City Treasurer Misty Buscher. Buscher has an interesting coalition put together, but Langfelder is like a cat who never stops using his nine lives. He has beat back challenge after challenge over the years. Polling has shown this race as a true toss up.
Champaign Mayor continues to break the mold
Champaign Mayor Deb Frank Feinen is much like Chirico in Naperville who has been run off by the GOP when the national party went off the reservation. In a city that has continued to move leftward, Feinen has built a huge coalition and will likely be re-elected to her third term tonight. (Disclosure: I worked Feinen’s first two campaigns, but am not associated with it this time.)
School boards
Democrats and some conservative groups have been piling some money into select school board races in recent weeks. Between COVID mitigations and the culture/gender wars of things like “Critical Race Theory” and who can use a bathroom where have become the issues everyone is fighting over. The money is from the far left and the far right. It likely won’t be settled tonight, but it will be very interesting to see if some of the money dumped in helps either side.
Do I have predictions?
I’ll take Vallas in Chicago (though it may be a squeaker), White in Naperville, D’Arcy in Joliet, Langfelder in Springfield, and Feinen in Champaign. (LOCK IT UP.)
