Ten Things I'm Watching on Election Day
DuPage County may be the telltale barometer of how key races turn out Tuesday.
OPINION
There’s so much happening around the state on Election Day, but here are ten things I’m watching as the results start rolling in tonight.
In 2014, then-candidate Bruce Rauner beat Gov. Pat Quinn 61% to 37% and won the second largest county in the state by around 70,000 votes. In 2018, JB Pritzker beat Rauner 48% to 46% for a margin of about 8,000 votes. If Bailey wins DuPage, it doesn’t guarantee he wins the election, but it sure helps his cause. If Pritzker wins DuPage, it’s probably lights out for the Bailey campaign.
Tale of Turnout-
Bailey is counting on a gigantic turnout in downstate counties to have a shot and making up the perceived gap in the city of Chicago, suburban Cook County, and collar counties. They’re also hoping for some Democratic apathy due to crime and the economy (and they’re hoping some pretty blatant efforts to suppress Black turnout work). Some polls have shown Bailey hovering around the magic 20% number in the city of Chicago, which is generally regarded as the magic number for a Republican to win statewide.
Four Congressional Districts hanging by a thread-
By all polling, trends, ratings agencies, and conventional wisdom, the 6th District (Casten/Pekau), 11th District (Foster/Lauf), 13th District (Budzinski/Deering), and 14th District (Underwood/Gryder) races are all too close to call. Democrats drew the districts with varying degrees of success. President Biden won the 6th by 11 points in 2020, the 11th by 15 points, the 13th by 15 points, and the 14th by 11 points. But the 2018 numbers are a lot closer. I’m hearing varying levels of confidence in the districts, but don’t be surprised if one or two of them flip tonight.
Is Esther Joy King Flipping 17?
Republican Esther Joy King came out of nowhere to nearly unseat Congresswoman Cheri Bustos (D-Moline) in 2020. Bustos isn’t running again and Democrats redrew the district in the hopes of making it safer. Joe Biden won the district by around 8 points in 2020 and Gov. Pritzker won it by around 9 points in 2018 (though, remember, Rauner underperformed pretty heavily downstate.) Democrats are sweating this one and a lot of Republicans think King will win the seat over former TV weatherman Eric Sorensen. King would be the first Republican to hold the seat since Bobby Schilling held it for one term from 2011-2013.
Undervotes on Amendment 1
In what may be the most complicated math of the night (which for me, granted, is anything more complicated than long division), we’ll have to keep an eye on the number of people who skip Amendment 1, the so-called “Workers Rights Amendment,” on their ballot. It’s pretty easy to overlook if you aren’t paying attention. Passing the amendment requires 60% of the vote on the question itself or 50% +1 of all ballots cast. So, if there are 4,000,000 votes on the question, it requires 2.4 million votes for passage. If there are 4,000,000 total ballots cast, but only 3,000,000 vote on the question, it would require 2,000,001 to pass. A lot depends on how many people overlook or skip the question.
The abortion impact
In the weeks following the Supreme Court abortion decision, abortion rights were the top issue across the board. It fired Democrats up, engaged moderate women, was at the top of issues lists in polling, and became the only thing Democratic politicians talked about for months. From what I’m hearing, polling shows that moderate and independent voters moving late don’t have abortion at the top of their issues list. In fact, in many cases, it’s number 4 or 5. We’ll see how numbers shape up, but if Democrats are cleaning house in the suburbs, you’ll know why.
Supreme Spending
Well in excess of $14 million has been spent so far (and not all groups have reported their spending) on the two Supreme Court seats on the ballot today. Democrat Elizabeth Rochford should be leading Republican Mark Curran in the new 2nd District, but we’re hearing it’s a supremely (get it?) close race. The same goes for the 3rd District, where incumbent Justice Mike Burke faces Appellate Justice Mary K. O’Brien. The 3rd probably leans Republican, but both sides think they’re going to win those races. If Democrats win one, they retain the majority. If Democrats win both, they take the majority for the first time in decades.
Potential pickups for GOP downstate
Republicans have high hopes they can pick up at least two downstate State Senate districts (Tharp/Harriss in the 56th and Turner/Hamilton in the 48th). There’s been giant spending, including both sides making broadcast St. Louis TV buys in the 56th district race. Republicans also think they can beat Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville), though that may be a tougher haul. Even though the pulled down TV in the new 36th Senate race a few weeks ago, the building wave has renewed optimism that Rock Island Mayor Mike Thoms could beat Rep. Mike Halpin (D-Rock Island).
Did Dems overreach in redistricting?
Watching how some of these races are tightening, especially congressional races, we may have to reassess the map Democrats drew that originally looked like a ticket to a decade of GOP mediocrity. It’s starting to look like Democrats were banking on GOP numbers staying at Trump-level lows, which sure doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case. There are 17 House districts Governor Pritzker won by less than 10 points in 2018. How many of them go Republican?
Pritzker’s coattails (or lack thereof)
The general consensus is that Gov. Pritzker is going to win. But, while many of us thought it looked more like a 15-20 point race in the summer, but it sure looks a lot more like a 5 point race today. Democrats likely hold the U.S. Senate seat and the statewide offices, but if D’s are losing down ticket races tonight, there’s going to be some grumpiness among the establishment.