Ten House Races to Watch
The House of Representatives in Springfield.
There are 78 House races this November in which a Republican and Democrat appear on the ballot, but how many are actually competitive?
Just 24 of those contested races were won by either Bruce Rauner or JB Pritzker by fewer than ten points in 2018.
Of those, 12 were within five points in 2018.
House Democrats are on television in at least 12 contested races so far while House Republicans are on the air in zero.
Some top races to watch (the partisan rating is how much JB Pritzker or Bruce Rauner won the district in 2018):
41st District: Rep. Janet Yang Rohr (D-Naperville) vs. Rich Janor (D+3)
Republicans lost their original candidate, Jennifer Bruzan Taylor, in August. The House GOP recruited Naperville Park District Commissioner Rich Janor for the ballot, who starts at a disadvantage for time and money. Yang Rohr had around $500,000 in the bank at the end of June and has reported around $115,000 in large dollar donations since then. Janor had around $10,000 in the bank at the end of June and has reported $90,000 in loans and contributions since then. The district includes much of Naperville and sneaks north to a portion of Warrenville.
42nd District: Rep. Terra Costa-Howard (D-Glen Ellyn) vs. Stefanie Hood (D+5)
This DuPage County District includes much of Glen Ellyn, Lombard, and parts of Lisle. Costa Howard was considered quite vulnerable, especially financially, early in the cycle, but has since ramped up her cash operation. She had around $153,000 in the bank at the end of June and has raised around $310,000 in large donations since then. House Republicans have sent some mail for Stefanie Hood, but Costa Howard has been on TV for weeks.
45th District: Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhust) vs. Jen Ladisch Douglass (R+5)
Democrats drew Mazzochi five houses out of her current district, and gave her a bunch of new territory stretching from Elmhurst to Hinsdale and Willowbrook. Mazzochi had around $200,000 on hand at the end of June and has raised around $30,000 in large donations since then. Democrats have polled the race, but haven’t gone up on TV yet, signaling they may not find Mazzochi easily beatable.
48th District: Azam Nizamuddin (D) vs. Jennifer Sanalitro (R) (R+3)
Republicans like Sanalitro, though she has been embroiled in some controversy after Democrats pushed oppo that she was at the January 6 events at the U.S. Capitol, though, she wasn’t part of any of the violence. Not like a “stop the steal” thing is going to work well in the suburbs, either. The district includes Wood Dale, Itasca, Roselle, and Bloomingdale.
51st District: Rep. Chris Bos (R-Lake Zurich) vs. Nabeela Syed (R+9)
On paper, this should be a relatively easy hold for Republicans, but Bos is an unknown to much of the new district, and portions of it have been trending Democrat in recent years. It runs from Lake Zurich and Kildeer in Lake County to Palatine and Rolling Meadows in Cook County. Syed is a bit of a prodigy at just age 23, and has been really impressive at doors, we’re told. I’ve heard polling shows this race neck and neck.
53rd District: Rep. Mark Walker (D-Arlington Heights) vs. Jack Vrett (D+5)
Joe Biden won this district handily in 2020, but Kim Foxx and the Governor’s graduated income tax referendum both lost in the district convincingly. Republicans are counting on some ticket splitting with the moderate Army veteran Vrett. But they haven’t invested any money in him (because they don’t have any) and Walker is already up on TV attacking Vrett as a “threat to Illinois.” The district includes much of Mt. Prospect, Arlington Heights, and Rolling Meadows.
54th District: Mary Beth Canty (D) vs. Michele Hunter (D+4)
Democrats have been up on TV for a while for Mary Beth Canty, an attorney and Arlington Heights Village Trustee. Canty is focusing her messaging on abortion rights and gun control while Republican Michele Hunter, also an attorney, is focusing on economic issues. We’ll see which appeals to the suburban moms out there. The district includes Prospect Heights, Arlington Heights, and Buffalo Grove.
66th District: Rep. Suzanne Ness (D-Crystal Lake) vs. Connie Cain (D+2)
This is a district Republicans probably never should have lost in the first place. Former Rep. Allen Skillicorn basically gave up his campaign in 2020, allowing Ness to pull the upset, and Democrats drew her a decent district, stretching from Crystal Lake in McHenry County south to Elgin in Kane County. Democrats are already up on TV for Ness.
83rd District: Rep. Keith Wheeler (R-Oswego) vs. Matt Hanson (D+6)
Wheeler was gerrymandered into a Democrat-leaning district that runs from Oswego and Aurora north to include portions of Batavia, Geneva, and St. Charles. Democrats are on the air with a heavily pro-union message for Hanson, a train engineer. Wheeler had around $240,000 in the bank at the end of June and has reported around $175,000 in large donations since. Republicans are sending some mail, but he’s probably going to have to get on TV soon.
91st District: Sharon Chung (D) vs. Scott Preston (R) (D+6)
This gerrymandered district connects Bloomington-Normal with Peoria in the hopes to sneak away a downstate seat. Democrats are on the air for Chung, painting Preston, a Normal Town Council member, as an extremist. This may be the only race on the list where JB Pritzker could actually hurt the Democrat on the ballot, though it’s not like Bailey is doing Preston a ton of favors.
