Can Suburban Congressional Seats Be Competitive in 2024?
Few observers are giving Republicans much chance to beat Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) next year.
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When Dave Wasserman, the longtime Congressional campaign reporter and editor with the Cook Political Report issued his latest ratings for competitive House races, suburban Chicago districts were nowhere to be found.
The only Illinois race, the downstate 17th represented by Congressman Eric Sorensen (D-Moline), was listed as “Lean Democrat.” No other race was even considered competitive “Likely Democrat” or “Likely Republican” being the first tier of competitive seats.
This time two years ago, the suburban 6th District, represented by Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), the 11th District, represented by Congressman Bill Foster (D-Naperville) and the 14th District, represented by Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) were all considered competitive.
Casten, Foster, and Underwood all won re-election against more highly regarded challengers than are lining up so far against them in 2024.
Republicans have struggled to recruit top tier candidates in those races. Joe Biden won the 6th and 14th districts by 11 points in 2020, the President won the 11th by 15 points.
Add the fact Democrats gerrymandered those competitive suburban districts to pack in more Democratic voters, and it has left fewer Republicans who believe the districts are in play.
Then there’s Donald Trump, who has lost Illinois by over 1,000,000 votes twice and polling has showed makes the GOP brand nearly toxic in the suburbs.
“If Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Trump again, we won't be winning any suburban congressional races,” said one GOP consultant, who agreed to speak freely without being named.
Trump is a prevailing concern for every GOP operative we spoke to.
“If Trump isn't the nominee, then a couple could be competitive,” said another operative. “If Trump is the nominee, they won't be competitive, even if Trump is doing well nationally.”
Scott Gryder, the former Kendall County Board Chairman who lost to Underwood last year by eight points pointed to the gerrymandered maps Democrats pushed through prior to the last election.
“Democrats did a masterful job of making the lines about as unfair as they could in an effort to maximize their votes,” Gryder said. “There is no logical reason to draw the districts they did otherwise.”
Donald Trump won the old 14th Congressional District by five points in 2016. After the remap, the Cook Partisan Voting Index gives Democrats a four point advantage in the newly redrawn district.
But not all Republicans are downtrodden at the party’s chances in 2024.
James Marter, the Kendall County GOP Chairman running against Underwood in 2024, also finished second in the 2022 GOP primary for the seat.
“I see the winds changing in our direction,” Marter said. “I see families and hard working folks struggling with high taxes, with government mandates, and they're struggling with inflation. These are the things that people are concerned about and it's what's really gonna change the election in 2024.”
We spoke to a former suburban Republican state legislator, who said there are opportunities for Republicans in the suburbs.
“For the past several cycles, Republicans have done better in presidential years than in the midterms,” the politician said. “State House Republicans picked up seats in 2016 and 2020 while getting absolutely slaughtered in [non-presidential years] 2018 and 2022. Clearly, Donald Trump gets people to the polls that don't always vote. That may happen again in 2024. But, as always, candidates and money will matter. Right now, it appears that the Democrats have the edge on both fronts.”
Sources indicate the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the House Republican campaign arm, have no plans to invest in the 6th, 11th, or 14th districts in 2024.
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