Some GOP Strategists Can't Quit Madigan. They Should.
Some Republicans appear ready to make Michael Madigan’s scheduled 2024 corruption trial a key part of their campaign messaging. They shouldn’t.
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OPINION
For more than a decade, Republican operatives and their candidates have doubled down on one message: all Madigan, all the time.
Needless to say, it hasn’t worked out so well for them.
Madigan’s corruption trial scheduled to begin next spring and one of his top lieutenants, Tim Mapes, currently on trial for perjury in an alleged attempt to protect the former Speaker. Madigan was also central to the case of the so-called “ComEd Four,” who were convicted earlier this year.
Some Republican insiders are already telegraphing that Madigan, or at least Madigan style corruption, are likely to be main messages again for their candidates next year.
House Republican campaign arm Executive Director Tony Esposito issued a statement Tuesday on the Mapes trial, and it sounded much like the same old playbook.
“[Speaker Chris] Welch kept Madigan’s rules and Mapes’ methods of running the House - more power for the Speaker, more perks for politicians, and more insider deals for their friends,” he said. “Next year voters will have a clear choice: a corrupt system that favors special-interest Democrats or new leaders that demand a balanced system of checks and accountability.”
Don’t get me wrong here, Esposito is trying to get a quote snuck into a Mapes trial story, and I don’t blame him for that.
But if it’s the message the GOP relies, on, it just isn’t going to work.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the Republican presidential primary is locked up for President Trump. It doesn’t matter how many indictments, bad stories, or stupid tweets there are. In fact, his numbers will probably keep going up, even if he’s sitting in gen pop at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta.
Republican candidates in tough races around the state will have to defend a nominee for President with more baggage than Santa Claus on Christmas Eve, a Capone-style list of indictments, and more ethical problems than you can shake a stick at. They won’t be getting questions about Michael Madigan.
It’s also clear voters have mostly tuned out corruption in the state. With the exception of the Blagojevich case, which was cinematic in its bloviating incompetence and criminal slapstick. It doesn’t move voters and the public is so tuned out from news coverage that it’s hard to imagine the corruption trial of a guy who has been out of office for more than three years really breaks through in the spring of 2024.
If you don’t think politicians notice how little the public cares about corruption, why don’t you think Senate President Don Harmon ever lifted a finger to get Martin Sandoval, Terry Link, Tom Cullerton, or Emil Jones III, all indicted on his watch, out of the Senate?
To win, Republicans will have to localize their close races.
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) is the Democrat who represents the most “at risk” district in 2024. President Biden won her district by about six points in 2020. Both Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) and Rep. Sharon Chung (D-Bloomington) represent districts President Biden won by about 8 points in 2020.
Rep. Dave Vella (D-Rockford) represents a district Biden won by 10 points in 2020, Rep. Suzanne Ness (D-Crystal Lake) and Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield) represent districts Biden won by 11 points.
No Democrats represent districts won by Donald Trump in 2020.
Stuart was elected in 2016 and Yednock in 2018, otherwise, none of the other Democrats listed above served while Madigan was Speaker.
Democrats have been successful in nationalizing legislative races in recent cycles. You’d be shocked at the number of Medicare or Social Security mailers they send out to scare the Depends off of senior voters, even though the legislature has nothing to do with those federal issues.
Republicans win by localizing issues, especially next year. Distance yourselves from Trump and don’t get bogged down in abortion or divisive social issues. Talk tax hikes, reckless spending, property taxes and education. Cultural warfare won’t win. Issues that matter to pocketbooks and families will.
And, if you can’t quit Madigan, you’re going to lose.
Again.