Some GOP Leaders Fear Party "Screwed" in 2026
The Illinois GOP tent at the Illinois State Fair in 2021.
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With well over 500 days remaining before the November 2026 General Election, many top Republicans around the state are already voicing concern, at least privately, about chances the party will continue to be embarrassed at the polls after a string of bad electoral years in the state.
Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2014, haven’t won a U.S. Senate race since 2010, and after the congressional maps were gerrymandered in 2021, saw their presence in Congress shrink from 5 to 3. (There were 11 in 2013.)
On the phone with a prominent Republican a week or two ago, I sort of jokingly asked what it would take that person to run for governor next year.
“$175 million from Ken Griffin,” the Republican told me with a laugh.
But money illustrates one of the toughest uphill climbs for Republicans in this state in recent, and likely future, cycles.
Griffin, of course, was Illinois’ formerly richest man. He split the state for Florida in 2022 after spending $50 million on the failed gubernatorial primary of Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin.
“The sugar daddies have been gone for a while now, and we [Republicans] have done a very poor job of building up our fundraising base since Griffin and [former Governor Bruce] Rauner stopped spending,” said one Republican operative, who we allowed to speak on the condition of anonymity. “And we haven’t been able to tap into the business community for years, because they just don’t see us as relevant.”
Billionaire Governor JB Pritzker has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on his own campaigns and the campaigns of other Democrats since jumping into the statewide fray in 2017. Unions have also added to the significant fundraising gap.
But fundraising isn’t the only issue facing the GOP.
“Republicans are screwed in 2026 mostly because we can’t do anything right,” said another GOP operative.
The operative pointed to the bungled appointment of Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills) in a suburban district Republicans will struggle to defend, failing to recruit quality candidates, and to build out a successful vote by mail and early voting program that competes with Democrats.
“When you can’t do any of the fundamentals correctly, how can you expect to see positive results,” the operative asked.
Whether Pritzker runs for a third term in 2026 or not, many Republicans fear they don’t have a field shaping up in the race for Governor that can compete, no matter what Democrat is at the top of the ticket.
DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick is the only Republican who has formally announced his candidacy for the office, his candidacy has been met with mixed reviews. Former RNC National Committeeman Richard Porter has said he’s considering the race. GOP state central committeeman Aaron Del Mar has also been making the rounds at Republican events and recently raised money for a race in Florida.
“This is not a top tier field,” said another GOP operative. “Maybe we can find a better candidate at the top of the ticket, but there’s nobody making the rounds right now like a candidate that would fit the bill.
Sources tell us only one potential candidate for any other statewide constitutional office (Attorney General, Comptroller, Treasurer, Secretary of State) has floated a name interested in 2026 thus far, but that person did not confirm their interest when contacted by The Illinoize. No Republican earned more than 44% of the vote in those races in 2022.
The U.S. Senate seat is also hanging in the balance as Sen. Dick Durbin weighs his future. Former Democrat Dr. Dave Nayak is laying the groundwork for a statewide run, potentially for U.S. Senate.
Congressman Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), the Republican seen as the most likely to succeed in either race, does not appear to be laying any groundwork for a statewide run next year. Former Sen. Darren Bailey, who lost the 2022 race to Pritzker, may be focusing on a potential rematch against Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) in the 12th Congressional District, sources say.
The party in charge of the White House usually struggles in midterm years, and many Republicans believe the midway point of Trump 2.0 may be a drag on the GOP in Illinois.
“If you think Elon Musk and Donald Trump are making suburban voters move toward us, you’re kidding yourself,” said one top GOP official. “It’s on our candidates to reframe this election about the failures of Illinois Democrats, not what’s going on in Washington. But, will we be able to do that?”
“This is shaping up to be a catastrophe top to bottom,” said another GOP operative.
But not all Republicans are singing the blues.
Rhonda Belford, a southern Illinois GOP county chair and member of the Republican National Committee, said Monday there’s hope for the GOP.
“I see better days ahead,” she said. “If we fear not, be strong, and work.”
But the road ahead appears very bumpy.
