Six Races to Watch A Month from Primary Day
House Speaker Chris Welch has targeted Rep. Mary Flowers (D-Chicago) for defeat.
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With four weeks to go before Primary Election Day on March 19, we have six races to watch the next 28 days:
House District 31- Rep. Mary Flowers (D-Chicago) vs. Michael Crawford
With the withdrawal of Rep. Cyril Nichols (D-Chicago) from the neighboring 32nd House District, Flowers becomes the main target inside House Speaker Chris Welch’s caucus.
Flowers was kicked out of leadership and banned from caucus meetings last year and has been a general thorn in the Speaker’s side, so he opened the floodgates in support of Crawford, the Dean of The Chicago School, a psychology-focused university.
Crawford has reported raising around $475,000 in large contributions since the beginning of the year. Flowers, who has served in the House since 1986, has raised just $6,000 in large donations this year.
Senate District 20- Sen. Natalie Toro (D-Chicago) vs. Graciela Guzman vs. Dave Nayak
Toro was appointed last year to replace über-progressive Senator Cristina Pacione-Zayas last year after CPZ left the Senate to serve in Brandon Johnson’s administration. Toro has been tagged as a moderate for her appointment by centrist Cook County Circuit Clerk Iris Martinez and has been trying to shake the moniker. Guzman is the former legislative assistant to Pacione-Zayas and attempting to make the race about “real” vs. “fake” progressive.
Nayak is self funding to a point, but Toro and Guzman have driven the conversation in this race, thanks to the $850,000 Senate President Don Harmon and the Senate Democrats have given Toro. If Guzman overcomes that spending, it’ll be a huge embarrassment for Harmon.
12th Congressional District- Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) vs. Darren Bailey
When Bailey announced his challenge of Bost last July, it was immediately heralded as one of the top GOP primaries in the country.
Bost has raised gobs of money and run a relatively cookie-cutter campaign while Bailey has struggled to fundraise and has resorted to online-based campaign gimmicks.
Bailey’s people released a poll showing him leading Bost, but we’re told independent polls in the district show Bost leading. (The Bost camp isn’t sharing their numbers.)
Bost has had a steady stream of television ads on the air since early January, likely to boost his numbers.
House District 110- Rep. Blaine Wilhour (R-Beecher City) vs. Matt Hall
Unions indicated they were going to open the floodgates to take out Wilhour, an outspoken far-right conservative in the House. Hall is a prison guard and has support from the Illinois Education Association and other unions. He has raised a little over $100,000 in large donations this year with the IEA pitching in another $40,000 in in-kind television ads.
Wilhour has raised around $40,000 in large donations this year.
House District 102- Rep. Adam Niemerg (R-Dieterich) vs. Jim Acklin
The sweeping 102nd, which stretches along the Indiana line from Danville to Lawrenceville is one of the stranger primaries seen in recent years.
Niemerg, a far right “Freedom Caucus” conservative was kicked off the ballot for messing up his petition packet and the Illinois Education Association recruited Acklin, a school superintendent who ran for House in 2016.
Both men are running a write-in campaign to win the GOP nomination and we’re told IEA and other unions are preparing a “media blitz” to stop Niemerg.
Senate District 58- Sen. Terri Bryant (R-Murphysboro) vs. Wesley Kash
Kash initially put a scare into Bryant when he dropped $300,000 into his campaign from his father and grandmother. But his campaign has turned out to be anything but spectacular.
Numerous unforced errors from Kash and good fundraising for Bryant makes the incumbent a favorite four weeks from Election Day. Bryant has also been unchallenged in recent attacks on television.
