Senate GOP Puts All Its Chips in Beating Joyce
Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Essex) and GOP challenger Philip Nagel.
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In 2022, Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Essex) won his re-election campaign against political newcomer Philip Nagel by about ten points.
Two years later, Nagel is back. This time, though, he has the backing of the Senate Republican campaign arm for the only Senate seat the GOP is actively trying to pick up in 2024.
Joyce, 62, a farmer and son of the late former Sen. Jerry Joyce, was appointed to the seat in 2019 and has established himself as one of the most moderate members of the General Assembly, voting against half of his party’s budgets and often being one of only a few dissenting Democratic votes on controversial issues.
Joyce says that reputation comes with its own challenges in the district.
“Anything I vote on in Springfield, half the district is probably going to be upset with me,” Joyce said. “My goal is always to communicate to the other [half] of the district. If you are telling people why you’re voting for or against something in the part of the district that aren’t happy with that vote, it really serves you better.”
Nagel, 42, of Braidwood, is an Air Force veteran and is a chemical operator at the LyondellBasell plant in Morris.
Nagel says this time around, there’s a new energy about his campaign.
“The energy is at an all-time high,” he said. “Obviously we’re going against a strong opponent, but everything we see on a day-to-day basis, everything we’re hearing at the doors, are very positive. I think we’re carrying the momentum into November.”
Nagel commissioned a poll outside of the Senate Republicans shows Nagel trailing Joyce by about 3.5 points with ten percent of voters still undecided. The poll was conducted by GOP pollster M3 Strategies.
Joyce, for his part, remains confident.
“We’re doing all the things we need to do. We’re running against a familiar opponent. We know how much we won by last cycle,” Joyce said. “Only thing that’s changed is he’s got a little more money and we’re going to beat him by a similar margin this time.”
Joyce says cost of living and property taxes are two of the top issues he’s hearing from voters at doors.
“In all parts of the district, when you explain what I feel is a lack of education funding or too much money being spent on migrants, those things resonate when you’re at the doors,” Joyce said.
Joyce said property tax need to be addressed.
“The state needs to reprioritize our budget,” Joyce said. “Evidence Based Funding (for schools) helps, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to what they need. If you could reprioritizing of spending and really lean in to education funding, you wouldn’t have maxed out levies from school districts year after year.”
We asked if it was realistic for Democrats to cut spending in an already record budget.
“It has to be realistic,” Joyce said. “You have to beat the drum. Can you do it in one budget? No. But if you keep beating the drum, that message resonates to both Republican and Democrat crowds.”
Nagel was critical of state spending on legal asylum-seeking migrants that were shipped to Illinois from other states in recent months, claiming the state should prioritize spending on Illinois citizens.
He says reducing cost of living and property taxes are a main priority, but says the issue begins with state spending.
“Spending is directly tied to inflation. So long as we spend at levels that are unsustainable, which is what we’re doing in the State of Illinois right now, then you’re going to see the cost of living [problem] exacerbated,” Nagel said.
Nagel was critical of tax incentives for EV battery maker Gotion, which is building a plant in Manteno in Kankakee County in the 40th District, and of tax breaks given to EV manufacturer Rivian.
“That’s essentially $1.3 billion in tax subsidies to EV automakers or battery makers that is hitting taxpayers in Illinois,” he said. “The taxpayers are paying for these subsidies that, to be honest with you, their product isn’t in demand in this state.”
Democrats are attacking Nagel for opposing abortion in all circumstances, a position he claims is a “complete fabrication.” In fact, Nagel said, he’s never spoken publicly about his abortion position until talking with The Illinoize Tuesday.
“I support abortion, the woman’s choice, in the case of rape, incest, or the life of the mother,” Nagel said. “I believe in complete and total bodily autonomy. As much as I believe in [the value] of life, I don’t believe it’s the government’s place. And it would never be my position to mandate any type of medical treatment on any person.”
Nagel took that a step farther, including vaccine mandates.
“I don’t believe it’s inherent of the government to make that decision for my child or for anyone’s child out there,” Nagel said, though avoided whether he would support removing government mandated vaccines for school children. “You always had a religious exemption under law. There’s a mandate, but there’s exemptions to it. So, as long as there’s an exemption for religious beliefs, that’s their decision. I really do believe that.”
While much of the 40th District is split along party lines, Joyce says he hears blame each day for Democrats’ handling of state issues. But, he says, he’s an effective voice for the district.
“You want me in that role. When we’re having debates (in Springfield) and I don’t agree, I cast my no vote, but that’s one vote,” he said. You want me in that room arguing [my] point. Because, if not, this district won’t have a voice.”
Since September 1, Senate Democrats have dumped $500,000 into Joyce’s campaign, which included launching a Chicago network TV ad buy. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, have given around $340,000 to Nagel, who is also on television. Republicans have spent another around $365,000 on digital, mail, and “production” costs, as well as an additional $15,000 on staff. Senate Democrats report about $30,000 on staff.
The real difference is fundraising. Since September 1, Joyce has reported around $260,000 in large donations for the home stretch. Nagel has reported two checks for $3,000.
President Biden won the district by around six points in 2020, Governor Pritzker won the district by .03% (that’s three-one-hundredths of a point) in 2022.
