Rumors, Ideas, and Guesses about 2022 Congressional Races
Former Miss America and 2018 GOP Attorney General nominee Erika Harold may be the best shot for Republicans to keep the redrawn 13th congressional district. But, does she want to run again?
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OPINION
Just a week after the General Assembly passed a new congressional map, some races are becoming a little more clear. And we’ve been listening, talking, and doing a little guessing. Let me just be clear, much of this is rumor and not particularly well sourced, so I’m not staking my reputation or life on it. (Hence, why it falls in the opinion category)
3rd District
This new Latino/a influence district is ripe for the taking for a well funded candidate. Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas threw his hat in the ring this week, but you can’t think he’ll be the only person in the race. Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) told Rachel Hinton from the Sun-Times a couple of weeks ago she was “carefully” considering running. Sen. Omar Aquino (D-Chicago) and his wife just had twins, so I would assume that makes it a little more difficult to commit to a congressional race. Sen. Cristina Pacione-Zayas (D-Chicago), who I’m a huge fan of, and Sen. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) also live in the district.
6th District
Whoever survives an expected bloodbath of a Democratic primary between Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and Congresswoman Marie Newman (D-La Grange) may still have some heavy lifting to do in the general. I’m hearing a lot of folks are calling Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) to run, but who isn’t calling Mazzochi to run for everything? She’s the hottest GOP free agent in the state not named Rodney Davis.
11th District
Expecting Trump crowd darling Catalina Lauf to run in this district against Congressman Bill Foster (D-Naperville). Our friends over at McHenry County Blog say former Army officer Michael Pierce of Naperville is running, but I haven’t been able to reach him or his people.
12th District
She’s waiting for Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) to publicly make up his mind about the 15th district or a run for Governor, but all indication from what she’s telling people privately is that Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland) will challenge Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) in the 12th district primary. Bost is an old pro and he’s remained loyal to the Trumpsim wing of the party, but Miller is out there, man.
13th District
Former Pritzker administration and Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski is the Democratic establishment favorite in the new 13th district, but she doesn’t have an open path to the seat until Rep. Carol Ammons (D-Urbana) decides to pass. Ammons previously thought about challenging Davis in the current 13th and she would do very will with African American voters in St. Clair County, Springfield, and Decatur. She hasn’t returned my messages, which makes my Spidey-sense tingle.
Will Republicans field a competitive candidate in this district? It’s hard to tell. I know former Miss America and former congressional candidate and Attorney General candidate Erika Harold is getting calls. I have no idea of her interest as she hasn’t returned my messages either. You have to question her interest after being dragged underwater by Bruce Rauner’s sinking ship in 2018. She may be the only major GOP hope in the district as I haven’t heard a single other major Republican name interested in the seat.
One GOP operative told me the other day if downstate Illinois has a turnout similar to New Jersey or Virginia last week that they could absolutely win that seat.
14th District
We learned this week that conservative talk show host Michael Koolidge is ending his WROK-AM based syndicated show and will announce a run against incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood Monday. (By the way, not sure if copying the Trump logo is a great play in a Lean Dem district.) Kendall County GOP Chairman Jim Marter, who ran in the 14th last year, 16th in 2018, and for U.S. Senate in 2016, is apparently running again in the 14th.
15th District
Davis isn’t saying for sure yet, but his campaign appears to be moving forward toward a run for Congress, not Governor, next year. It sounds like he wanted a commitment from billionaire Ken Griffin to help him win and that commitment never came, though, his people dispute that.
17th District
Former State Rep. and 2018 Lt. Governor candidate Litesa Wallace is the first major candidate to jump in the race. She’s going to be associated a lot with the AOC/squad types in DC, which is great for a primary, but not great in a tight general. I spoke to her this week and she sounds a lot more like a moderate workhorse than any of those DC types. Otherwise, folks seem to be waiting to see what Sen. Steve Stadelman (D-Rockford) is going to do. He’s interested in the new 17th district seat that was built for a Democrat but is likely going to be a gigantic battleground. He told me the other day he had “no news yet” on his plans.
If Stadelman doesn’t run, one would expect Rep. Maurice West (D-Rockford) to get into the race. Former TV weatherman Eric Sorensen has also jumped into the Democratic primary.
Republicans are rightly excited about Esther Joy King, a young, telegenic female candidate who came within a whisper of defeating Democrat Cheri Bustos last year. She has a roughly $650,000 head start on whichever Democrats may get in the race.
As always, there’s a long way to go.