Pre-Election Predictions From Around the State
The Illinois Statehouse in Springfield.
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With under a week to go until Election Day, we opened up the contact list on our phone filled with current and former lawmakers, lobbyists, media folks, strategists, staffers and more to ask them for their predictions for the November 5 election.
We allowed everyone to answer anonymously (unless they specifically said we could use their name) to answer honestly. We split their answers up by party.
Here are the results of putting our ear to the ground:
REPUBLICANS
“Trump wins the presidency by a surprising margin. Not enough for a blowout, but he wins five out of the seven battleground states and makes it definitive.”
“Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes, race called around 4am.”
“Trump wins in an electoral landslide. At least four swing states will be called at the beginning of the night for Trump.”
“I think Trump is on track to sweep the blue wall and the Sun Belt, netting him over 300 electoral votes.”
“Big wins for GOP nationally. Trump will win 312+ electoral votes, which spells even bigger troubles for Illinois Republicans in 2026.”
“Trump wins both the Electoral College and popular vote.” -Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park)
“Going Trump. Hopeful for positive surprises [in Illinois.]”
“I think Trump pulls it out. His polling numbers are under his true support.”
“It’s looking good for Trump nationally. Not in Illinois, of course.”
“It seems to me that Trump wins, which will be a nightmare for the Illinois GOP in the suburbs in two years.”
“Biden handed it to Trump who has done everything since to hand it to Harris.”
“Trump will do 1-2% better in 2024 than 2020 in Illinois.”
“Trump wins nationally and will have a GOP majority in the House and Senate.”
“Trump wins. 52 in the Senate, Republicans narrowly hold House.”
“Republicans win 55 in the Senate and 219 to hold the House.”
“I expect to see the suburbs get bluer. I bet Trump loses DuPage County by 20-25 points.”
“Every Republican running for Congress in Illinois loses by 10 points plus.”
“Folks are going to be surprised by the margins in the federal races in Illinois.”
“Jim Carris in the 10th far overperforms and finishes within spitting distance of Congressman Brad Schneider (D-Highland Park) making a second matchup inevitable and favoring Carris [in 2026.]”
“[Congressman Eric] Sorensen (D-Moline) inches out a win because of money.”
“[Sen. Patrick] Joyce (D-Essex) wins by 6. Dems pick up 2-3 in the House.”
“Senator Joyce beats Nagel well outside the margin, maybe even by double digits for the second time, leaving Curran having wasted hundreds of thousands of dollars that would’ve best been spent in 2026 when he has to scrape enough money to fund several primaries against his caucus and then defend four vulnerable seats, including his, in the general election.”
“Nagel wins (over Joyce), then [Sen. Jason] Plummer (R-Edwardsville) runs and beats Curran to become next leader.”
“Despite external optimism, House Republicans lose 4 seats.”
“The House Democrats cost per vote blow away previous record highs.”
“Speaker Welch gets to 80 seats. 81, actually.”
“House Republicans stay at 40.”
“Status quo. Republicans win all seats at risk but lose all seats they’ve targeted for pickup. This is spun as a victory, and as a result, no changes or improvements are made and the party continues embracing being perpetual losers.”
“Democrats pick up a couple of seats in the House, including beating Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills).”
“McLaughlin wins and then runs and beats McCombie to become next leader.”
“It’s entirely possible the GOP ends up having no state representatives in DuPage County other than Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro (R-Hanover Park) and Rep. Nicole La Ha (R-Homer Glen.)”
“Amy Grant is gonna be fine. Gabby Shanahan wins.”
“House Dems beat McLaughlin but not Schmidt, getting them to 80. If under 80, McCombie holds on. If over 80, she’s gone.”
“Gabby Shanahan beats [Rep. Harry] Benton.”
“I’m taking Gabby Shanahan to win but House Republicans lose seats.”
“[Rep. Amy] Grant and Jackie Williamson geos to a recount. Too close to call.”
“[Jarrett] Clem wins [104] in a squeaker. Faraci and Budzinski win.”
“If money rules, as you have predicted for the Illinois House, we could have a very bad night. If, however, candidate enthusiasm rules, which is what national polling seems to suggest, we could have a great night both locally and nationally.”
“House GOP becomes even more irrelevant as House Dems become even more liberal. The caucus Speaker Welch will have next year will make the very difficult decisions Dem leaders in this state will have to make even more challenging. We may have to look back fondly to May of 2024 when we’re living through May of 2025.”
“House Republicans will need a ton of breaks to stay even. If they lose incumbents like Schweizer and Schmidt by small margins, a lot of questions will be raised about the spending in Keeven, Shanahan, Reboletti, and Anderson races.”
“Tony McCombie will no longer be Leader after this election.”
“I hope [Tony] McCombie doesn’t get McCarthy’ed.”
“For several reasons, this is the least predictable election in my lifetime, including 2016, not just only the presidential, Senate and House, but the contested Illinois Statehouse races.”
“The big winner will be the gerrymandered Democratic map.”
“Trump does better in the suburbs. There’s no excitement for Harris, which will hurt Democrat turnout. Democrats still win, but by smaller margins.”
“Certain Republicans are making fools of themselves going around telling people Bob Fioretti has a good chance of winning Cook County State’s Attorney. He does not. He will get around 28-30%.”
DEMOCRATS
“I think Harris holds in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and surprises in North Carolina thanks to the Governor’s race s**tshow. Trump takes Ohio, Nevada, and Georgia. Texas ends up closer than it has been in my lifetime. Trump holds but Cruz falls. Split Senate. Walz [becomes] tiebreaker.”
“Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, winning the Electoral College with over 300 votes.”
“Harris carries Pennsylvania much bigger than expected. Michigan and Wisconsin too close to call until Wednesday. Harris carries both but Trump screams he won. Litigation, litigation, litigation.”
“Kamala wins because Americans will see that our democracy will be irreparably harmed under a second Trump term.”
“Presidential race is too close to call right now.”
“Trump wins. Texas goes to Cruz. Black men sit on their hands.”
“Republicans take back the majority in the U.S. Senate because of an almost impossible electoral map.”
“The Senate remains in Democratic control and we flip the House.”
“Dems retake the House but lose the Senate.”
“Democrats will win back the majority in the House because of an outstanding portfolio of candidates and women’s health rights.”
“Sorensen and Budzinski win big.”
“Say goodbye to the ‘Great 78.’ We’re soon going to have the ‘Fun 81’ House Democrats.”
In Illinois, House Dems gain seats.”
“104th too close to call on election night. Goes to Clem via mail-in count. Faraci and Budzinski coast.”
“I think Democrats lose the [Lance] Yednock seat. Schmidt wins/Greenwood loses.”
“We take Amy Grant and Marty McLaughlin seats. A net pickup of 1 to 2 seats for Speaker Welch.”
“Welch holds all current seats and picks up Peterson and Clem.”
“CTU candidates for Chicago School Board get crushed outside of [Democratic Socialist] wards. I think it may also drive turnout.”
INDEPENDENTS/OTHER
“Blue wall survives. So does Harris.”
“I think enough people believe in democracy and truth, plus those who want to see abortion rights reinstated will bring about a Harris win.”
It’s going to be dangerously close. So dangerous there may be blood shed somewhere. That’s what I’m afraid of.”
There’s almost no environment where the Republicans don’t take the Senate.”
“Republicans will take the Senate by one seat and Democrats will retake the house by three.”
“Illinois Republicans have proven themselves to be so inept they’re going to lose even more seats than they should. Maybe four or five in the House.”
