Outmigration is More Complicated than Talking Points
Illinois lost population in the 2020 census. It was the first census Illinois has lost population in the history of the state. A University of Illinois expert says the reasons for outmigration are more complicated than the political talking points would say.
For the first time in Illinois’ 203-year history, the state population will drop in the decennial federal census. It’s about 8,000 of 12.8 million, but University of Illinois sociology professor and social demographer Cynthia Buckley says the reason for population loss aren’t as cut and dry as some politicians like to claim.
“It’s not that simple,” she said. “It’s a much more complex question.”
Buckley studies population change and is an expert on population data like the census.
She says in data released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau, about half of the loss in population in the state came from permanent residents moving to other states, while the other half were Illinoisans living outside of the United States.
“It is an absolute a decline, it is not monumental, it is not that large,” she said. “It is problematic that we’ve had really modest declines in population. It’s less about the decline and more about the fact that we have certain states in the union that have grown extraordinarily quickly.”
Buckley says part of the decline comes from the reduction in immigrants that have come to the state in the past decade.
University of Illinois sociology professor and population data expert Cynthia Buckley.
“Illinois and Chicago, in particular, remains a gateway city for international immigrants coming into the United States,” she said. “That’s where Illinois, for several decades, has been really focused in terms of their population growth. As we got a downturn in the last four years of the previous [administration], in international migration, it accelerates Illinois’ demographic disadvantage.”
Republicans, of course, took the population decline as a direct indictment of high taxes, scarce jobs, and ineffective government in Illinois.
“The 2020 Census numbers show that Americans continue to vote with their feet,” said Illinois Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods). “People are leaving states where they can’t find economic opportunity and heading to states where they can. If we want to keep our talent and our tax base, our top priority should be passing pro-growth policies that will make Illinois more attractive to students, employers and families.”
But, Buckley says, it’s not as simple as Republicans argue.
“The idea and the arguments that are very popular that it’s all about property taxes and people are moving about tax rates does not link with the social science literature on interstate migration in the United States,” she said. “Taxes play a role, but you don’t move an entire household or an entire family because of a tax differential of $500 or $600.”
“It is overly politicized,” she said.
Buckley says numerous studies and data show Illinois is creating jobs.
“In most years, and across most measures, Illinois is doing better in terms of business startups and folks who claim entrepreneurial income,” she said. “I’m not discounting the tax issue, I’m just saying it’s a little bit more complicated.”
Governor JB Pritzker Monday said the population decline has “been happening for more than a decade,” and blamed much of the loss on college students who leave the state for other universities.
“What you see when you look at the outmigration is, actually, the largest portion of the population that was moving out were young people who were choosing to go to college out of state because they couldn’t afford to go to college in Illinois,” he said. “We weren’t making it affordable enough. So, people, some of our best students were being offered full scholarships to places like University of Alabama or University of Iowa.”
Buckley says the Governor doesn’t paint the whole picture.
“Governor Pritzker does have a point. We do see an increase in college students in Illinois, over the past two years, seeking higher education out of state,” she said. “We also see an enormous number of international students, particularly in the early part of the last decade, coming into Illinois for higher education.”
Buckley says we need full census data, which will likely be released in August, to break down all of the reasons for Illinois’ population loss.
But, she says, as she studies the trends, it doesn’t appear Chicagoland is leading the outmigration.
“What I think we really need to look at is what’s happened to population change downstate,” she says. “Because, with Caterpillar leaving Peoria, with the agriculture sector coming into difficult times, that’s where we could really be losing people.”
She says farmers are retiring, manufacturing has declined, and small towns face long term difficulty.
“When you look around the Midwest, and you look at our neighbors, you look at Michigan, you look at Ohio, and, to a large extent, you look at Indiana as well, [and Wisconsin and Minnesota], these are long term changes in the economy that have been vexing,” she said. “And, unfortunately, Illinois has not aggressively addressed them. And this has been decades in the making.”