Ten Bold Crystal Ball Predictions for 2024
Former House Speaker Michael Madigan’s corruption trial is scheduled to begin in April. Will he be convicted?
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OPINION
With the days waning before we turn the calendar to 2024, we decided to make ten bold predictions about what will happen in Illinois politics next year:
Michael Madigan will be convicted of at least one felony in 2024. (Caveat: as long as the trial happens next year.)
Democrats in the legislature still won’t pass stronger ethics laws.
Dick Durbin will announce he won’t seek re-election in 2026 (not reporting, just a bold prediction.) It sets off a mad dash for the seat more than a year before the 2026 primary.
Migrant funding, cooled revenue projections, and a push from the most progressive members in the legislature for more spending will lead to a budget overtime lasting sometime into June.
The U.S. Supreme Court will take up the Illinois assault weapons ban. I don’t know if there would be enough time get a ruling next year, but I would expect it to be declared unconstitutional in 2025.
Mike Bost beats Darren Bailey by at least 10 points in the 12th District GOP primary.
The House Freedom Caucus will win all of its primaries (Deering, Wilhour, Halbrook) handily, with the exception of Angela Evans, who will lose to Rep. Dave Severin (R-Benton).
Donald Trump lost Illinois by 885,000 votes in 2016 and by 1,025,000 in 2020. If he’s the nominee in 2024, he’ll lose Illinois by more, potentially 1.1 million.
House Democrats pick up three seats in 2024. If you make me choose the three pickups: 47th (Grant), 104th (Open), 114th (Schmidt). (But also keep eyes on 52nd (McLaughlin) and 48th (Sanalitro.) Three pickups, by the way, would get Dems to an 81-37 majority. Yikes.
At least one House Democrat loses a primary in March. If you want a few to watch, try these: 5th (DuBuclet), 21st (Rashid), 22nd (Guerrero-Cuellar), 24th (Mah), 32nd (Nichols).