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OPINION

In his post-session news conference last week, Governor JB Pritzker pushed back hard on reporters who pressed him on future financial challenges facing state government.

Pritzker went back to his same old playbook: Republicans bad, credit rating upgrades good, Rauner sucks, balanced budgets good.

But complaints about the Fiscal Year 2025 budget, that Pritzker will sign into law this morning, aren’t just from Republicans. We’ve heard complaints from moderate Democrats who voted against the budget bill itself or for the tax increase portion of the package, who are concerned about the Democratic turn toward tax increases in the new budget.

One moderate Democrat, like Rep. Fred Crespo (D-Hoffman Estates), has said the state’s financial picture would likely lead to a tax increase on families next year.

Pritzker shot back, and, as usual, blamed super minority Republicans, who have less say in the budget than a toddler in a Taco Bell drive thru.

“The truth is the Republicans come up every year and they complain and complain and complain. And every year they have fewer things to complain about,” Pritzker said. “We’re in a much better situation now than we’ve been in many years, and certainly since before I took office. The complaints from Republicans, frankly, every year they get crazier and crazier because things have been going in the right direction for our state.”

But, while Pritzker paints a rosy picture and attacks his political opponents, he’s avoiding the fact the state’s financial situation isn’t particularly sunshine and unicorns.

The bipartisan, bicameral Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA), which compiles financial outlooks for the state, projected about $52.1 billion in revenue for the upcoming fiscal year, which gets close to balancing when you add on some unexpected tax revenue and around $700 million in tax increases Democrats shoved through the House in the middle of the night last week.

Before the tax increase passed last week, COGFA has projected essentially flat revenue, a small increase of around $100 million, for FY26. That’s an increase of just .2%. (Think of that as a $200 raise on a $100,000 salary.)

The state is already bound to increase K-12 education funding by $350 million each year, so that alone more than wipes out the projected FY26 revenue increase. Add in the oncoming $700 million “fiscal cliff” for Chicago-area mass transit in 2026 and a teachers’ union full court press to raise pension costs by eliminating the “Tier 2” system along with untold additional pressures leave a lot of unanswered questions, but one louder than all the others:

How do you pay for it all?

Pritzker seems undeterred.

“It seems like every year there have been the usual naysayers, with their false narratives about our budget,” Pritzker said. “But, this is year six, not year one. Our record of fiscal responsibility and responsible investments is well established.”

It certainly is, Governor, and federal COVID money absolutely helped the state through the hardest of times, but you just raised taxes on business and you’re looking at a tough road ahead.

It wouldn’t have been hard to say “we absolutely have challenges in future years and we’re going to work together to keep the ship afloat.”

Instead, he turns to attacks. Why? Why is this the default position of the Pritzker administration?

His spokesperson attacks sportsbooks complaining about a tax increase.

His Deputy Governor attacks Republicans who were left out of budget negotiations.

His Senior Advisor even attacks a fellow Democrat who dares to disagree with their budget.

They almost blew a $700 million dollar tax increase package (and, in turn, the budget itself) until Rep. Larry Walsh (D-Elwood) flip-flopped on the hikes at 4:30 in the morning.

That’s not a sign of an administration having it’s will with the budget, it’s a sign of an administration barely holding their coalition together. Republicans aren’t the boogeyman, and members of your own party shouldn’t be treated that way, either.

Pritzker and legislative Democrats would be well served by listening to moderates in their own party (who have been largely forgotten) and by including serious Republicans in conversations (who basically have their faces on a milk carton) to build consensus on addressing the challenges staring us in the face. Politics is supposed to be a game of addition, after all.

This kind of rhetoric is no recipe for success.

Patrick Pfingsten

@pfingstenshow

patrick@theillinoize.com