Handicapping House Races 11 Months Out
The Illinois House Chamber in Springfield.
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OPINION
So far, it appears there are as many as 27 competitive House races shaping up for next November. As petition filing draws to a close, we decided to go through them and give you an idea who is in the best position to win.
45th District
Democrats landed Elmhurst city council member Marti Deuter to replace outgoing Rep. Jenn Ladisch-Douglass (D-Elmhurst).
It isn’t clear yet which, or how many, Republicans file in this district.
There are some rumors floating that attorney Dan Kordik won’t file petitions in the race. Former Rep. Dennis Reboletti had been passing petitions, but he didn’t respond last night when we asked if he was still planning to file Monday.
President Biden won the district by 17 points in 2020. Governor Pritzker won it by 13 last year.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
46th District
This would be a 2022 rematch between Rep. Diane Blair-Sherlock, (D-Villa Park) and Republican trucker and small business owner Robert “Rusty” Stevens. Blair-Sherlock won the first go-around by 13 points last year.
Stevens barely raised $10,000 for the race last year and had little help from the House GOP in a district President Biden won by 21 points in 2020 and Governor Pritzker won by 17 points last year. Hard to see how he gains a ton of new traction this time.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
47th District
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) has found herself one of the most endangered House Republicans the last couple of cycles. Could her luck run out in 2024? HR manager Jackie Williamson is seeking a re-match of a race she lost by around 3,000 votes (6 points) in 2022.
President Biden won the district by 12 in 2020. Governor Pritzker won it by 7 last year.
Grant has been terrible at raising money and with Trump’s suburban weakness, Democrats may be willing to invest heavily in this race. If they do, watch out.
Advantage: Toss Up
48th District
Freshman Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro (R-Hanover Park) put to rest a few GOP concerns about her in her first year in the House and didn’t come across as the crazy January 6th riot attending Trumper Democrats attempted to paint her as last year.
She faces Maria Vesey of Roselle, who runs a financial company.
Both Joe Biden (3 points) and JB Pritzker (2 points) won the district in 2020 and 2022, respectively.
If Democrats choose to invest in this race, it could get sticky quickly for Sanalitro.
Advantage: Toss Up
49th District
Rep. Maura Hirschauer (D-Batavia) is far more progressive than you would expect for that part of Kane County. But Hirschauer picked up a big swath of Aurora in the new map. President Biden won it by 36 poins in 2020 while Pritzker won it by 29 last year. Republican Aris Garcia will have a hard time making a race.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
51st District
Rep. Nabeela Syed (D-Palatine) knocked off incumbent Republican Chris Bos in this northwest suburban district last year. Republicans really like their candidate, Tosi Ufodike, who owns a daycare franchise.
Democrats love Syed and are going to do everything they can to save her. Both President Biden and Governor Pritzker won the district by 13 points each.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
52nd District
Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills) hasn’t filed nominating petitions yet, but he’s expected to file by Monday. He’ll face Democrat Maria Peterson, who lost a closer-than-expected race with Sen. Dan McConchie last year. The Democrats are coming hard for this one, but McLaughlin has the ability to raise a lot of money in his district.
President Biden won the district by 6 points, Governor Pritzker won it by 7 points. McLaughlin needs to button up his operation or he could find himself in trouble.
Advantage: Toss Up
54th District
Republican Michele Hunter is seeking a rematch with Rep. Mary Beth Canty (D-Arlington Heights). Canty won 59%-41% last year. Democrats drew a really good district for themselves here. President Biden won it by 23 points. Governor Pritzker won it by 25.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
63rd District
Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock) hasn’t yet filed but is expected to Monday. He’ll likely face Mary Mahady of McHenry, who has run for more offices than Darren Bailey at this point.
That district is not trending in the GOP’s direction, though. President Biden won it by around 2 points, Governor Pritzker won it by around 4 points last year.
Reick doesn’t raise a lot of money on his own and it isn’t clear how much House Democrats are interested in spending here.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
65th District
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva) likely faces microbiologist Linda Robertson of St. Charles. President Biden won the district by around a point in 2020. Governor Pritzker won it last year by around a point, too. Nothing will come easy for the GOP in the suburbs.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
66th District
House Democrats drew Rep. Suzanne Ness (D-Crystal Lake) a far better district than the one she inherited when she defeated then-Rep. Allen Skillicorn in 2020.
She faces Republican Laurie Parman, who lost a school board race earlier this year.
President Biden won the district by around 11 points in 2020.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
67th District
President Biden won Rep. Maurice West’s (D-Rockford) district by around 16 points in 2020. He’s not likely to be seriously challenged by Republican Glen Oland of Rockford.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
69th District
Both President Trump and Darren Bailey easily won Rep. Joe Sosnowski’s (R-Rockford) district. He faces Democrat Peter Janko of Marengo.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
70th District
Rep. Jeff Keicher (R-Sycamore) faces Cortland village trustee Randi Olson. It was only Trump +3 and Bailey +5, so it’s not to say it can’t be close, but Keicher has the advantage.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
74th District
Freshman Rep. Brad Fritts (R-Amboy) faces Democrat David Simpson of Shabbona. It should be safe for Fritts.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
76th District
You have multi-person primaries for both Republicans and Democrats. Conventional wisdom tells you moderate DeKalb Mayor Cohen Barnes is the Democrat to beat in the race. Republican Liz Bishop is probably the expected Republican.
President Biden won the district by about 8 points in 2020, and outgoing Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) outperformed most Democrats. It’s probably still a Democratic-leaning district, but it could get close.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
77th District
Freshman Rep. Norma Hernandez (D-Melrose Park) beat Republican Anthony Airdo 58-42 last year. Airdo is back around in a tougher district for a Republican (Biden won it by 22 in 2020).
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
79th District
Democrats have a bit of a free-for-all for their nomination in this Kankakee-area district. House Dems recruited Kankakee Schools Superintendent Genevra Walters for the slot, but she’s still actively in the role through the summer and it isn’t clear how much she can campaign. Former Quinn aide Billy Morgan is running, along with Kankakee County Board member Larry Kerkstra.
Republicans will go all-in to protect Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais) in this seat.
It was roughly even in the 2020 Presidential race and Haas will probably outperform Trump.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
81st District
Republicans really want to take out Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville) and there are more than a few Democrats who wouldn’t mind to see her go, either. But her district was drawn even stronger in the remap and Republican Aaron Porter is unlikely to take her out.
President Biden won the district by 23 points in 2020.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
82nd District
Former Mrs. America Nicole La Ha of Homer Glen is the GOP choice to take the seat of outgoing Rep. John Egofske (R-Lemont), who replaced former House GOP Leader Jim Durkin. La Ha will likely face Democrat Suzanne Akhras of Burr Ridge.
Donald Trump won the district by two points in 2020. Darren Bailey won it by three in 2022. If Democrats go in hard here, it could move to toss up very quickly.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
91st District
Democrats did a heckuva gerrymander on this Peoria-to-Bloomington district. Rep. Sharon Chung (D-Bloomington) faces Republican Desi Anderson, who ran a tepid Senate race last year.
President Biden won the district by about 8. Governor Pritzker won it by about a point and a half last year.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
95th District
On paper, this Springfield area district, represented by appointed Rep. Mike Coffey (R-Springfield) looks close, though Coffey has a ton of built in name ID in the community. He faces Kristen Chiaro, who works for the Trial Lawyers Association and serves on the Chatham Village Board.
If Trial Lawyers and Democrats spend big, this could get close.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
97th District
Republicans really like their candidate, Illinois Policy Institute staffer Gabby Shanahan. But freshman Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield) is favored in a district President Biden won by more than ten points in 2020.
Advantage: Democrats (hold)
104th District
As mentioned earlier, Republican Brandun Schweizer appears to be the Republican pick to replace Rep. Mike Marron (R-Fithian). He will likely face Democrat Jarrett Clem, who hasn’t filed yet. Unions and Democrats will go hard for the moderate Clem here.
President Biden won the Champaign-to-Danville district by 4 in 2020. Governor Pritzker won it by a point last year. This may be the best Dem pickup opportunity next year.
Advantage: Democrats (pickup)
105th District
Assuming Freshman Rep. Dennis Tipsword (R-Metamora) survives a primary here (he will), he sails in November against Democrat Morgan Phillips.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
111th District
Donald Trump won Rep. Amy Elik’s (R-Godfrey) district by about 13 points in 2020. She’s overperformed in pretty much every race she’s run. She’s in the catbird seat against Democrat Nick Raftopoulos.
Advantage: Republicans (hold)
114th District
Democrats were hugely unprepared when Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt) beat LaToya Greenwood last year. Expect Speaker Welch to spend every dollar imaginable to win this district back for Democrats.
President Biden won the district by 7 in 2020. Part of Schmidt’s success was that Darren Bailey won the district by about two points last year.
Advantage: Democrats (pickup)