The Biggest Red Flag in the Bears Stadium Proposal
Chicago Bears President Kevin Warren and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson answer questions about the Bears new lakefront stadium proposal Wednesday. (Photo: Associated Press)
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OPINION
When I first heard details about the Chicago Bears proposal to build a new lakefront stadium Tuesday night, my inner cynic was slightly persuaded the deal wasn’t bad for taxpayers and it had a pretty decent chance of earning legislative approval.
In about 12 hours, my whole view changed.
Before the Bears had announced the details of their proposal Wednesday, Governor JB Pritzker had already begun the process of throwing cold water on the whole idea, calling himself “highly skeptical” of taxpayer involvement in the project.
The Bears formally announced their proposal at noon Wednesday and just 15 minutes later, Governor Pritzker and House Speaker Chris Welch appeared together at Loyola University Medical Center in Maywood.
I stood in the back of Pritzker’s event, being disregarded by Pritzker’s press staff, as usual, and both listened to the news conference while watching and screenshotting the Bears announcement on my phone.
It was in those few minutes between when the Bears got into the nitty gritty of their proposal and when Pritzker started taking questions that I realized just how hard it was going to be for the Bears to get this done.
Construction of the actual stadium isn’t actually the most difficult part of this, at least from a fiscal policy angle. Of a roughly $3.2 billion price tag for the fixed roof stadium itself, the Bears are pitching in more than $2 billion and they’re taking a $300 million loan from the NFL. That’s where the first taxpayers ask happens.
The Bears want the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority (ISFA), the quasi-state agency that owns the White Sox park and holds most of the debt on the 2002 Soldier Field renovation, to refinance its existing Soldier Field and Comiskey Park/U.S. Cellular Field/Guaranteed Rate debt, projecting savings in the millions, and issue new bonds for the new stadium.
They’re projecting a cost of around $900 million, which the Bears believe and the Governor is sure skeptical of, would allow the 2% hotel tax in the city which is paying for the existing renovation bonds to pay for the new bonds without an increase.
Even if you’re skeptical of the math, and post-pandemic it’s fair to be, it’s hardly the biggest ask of the project.
It’s the infrastructure improvements the Bears want around the stadium that make this entire project a non-starter. Essentially, they want someone else (the city or state, and we know the city can’t get it done) to pay for $1.5 billion in improvements to transportation, parking, ball fields and “public attractions.”
Let’s just talk about that on the quick back of the napkin, and I am by no means a government finance expert. The state isn’t sitting on $1.5 billion cash to do this, so that would require selling bonds. If you bond out $1.5 billion at 4% for 30 years (again, rough numbers here, not scientific), you’re talking about a yearly debt repayment out of the General Revenue Fund somewhere between $85-90 million.
Do you think that’s better spent on schools, roads, homeless programs, and public safety or to build a new exit on Lake Shore Drive at 18th Street?
Governor Pritzker said about the same thing Thursday.
“They want infrastructure dollars on top of what they’re asking for in bonding. They’re asking to keep all of the revenue from other events that might take place at this stadium. You know, if there’s a Beyonce concert, they want all of that revenue, too,” Pritzker said. “There are aspects of this that are probably non-starters. Having said that, always open to a conversation, but as I’ve said, the priorities of the people of Illinois are not building stadiums. We have important things we need to invest in for the future of the state and stadiums, [in] my mind, don’t rank up in the top tier of those.”
That’s as close to a hard no as I think you’re going to see the Governor make on something like this.
Add that to the fact that House Speaker Chris Welch said he doesn’t think the environment can change in the next 30 days and Senate President Don Harmon said there was “next to no appetite” in Springfield for stadium projects, though he was referring to the White Sox in that context, it still applies, this is going to be a really hard sell.
“Again, I’m skeptical of the proposal that was put forward and I’m even more skeptical of the ability to get enough votes for it in the General Assembly,” Pritzker said.
Look, can the Bears turn this around in the next 30 days and win legislative approval? Yes. 30 days is a lifetime in Springfield time. Hell, 30 hours is a lifetime in Springfield in May.
The McCaskey family, who owns the Bears, isn’t independently wealthy. Stan Kroenke built SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles with exclusively private dollars. The Bears don’t have that. $2 billion in private money is more than many expected them to be able to cough up for a stadium.
It also seems odd the Bears would push this proposal out into the public without briefing the Governor and at least securing him in the neutral category while they convince the legislature.
There are a ton of negotiations that will happen in the next 30 days or longer, but for the first time in a long time, it seems to be the kind of issue uniting both sides in Springfield.
That may be more telling than anything.