Almost Unbelievably, Darren Bailey Could Actually Win Tuesday
Then-Sen. Darren Bailey concedes the race for Governor in 2022. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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OPINION
Darren Bailey shouldn’t beat Mike Bost.
Bost is an established conservative incumbent in a heavily Republican district, he’s done everything a traditional GOP office holder should, he’s been on TV non-stop since the first week of January, and he received the coveted endorsement from the unlikely orange-hued GOP deity, Donald Trump.
A poll released last week showed Bost with a six point lead over Bailey, but there were some conditions in the poll that raised some eyebrows.
The poll showed Bost and Bailey tied among Trump voters, around 43% each. Bost pulled away in the poll with the support of Nikki Haley voters. But now that Haley is out of the race, those voters could easily stay home.
That means Trump’s endorsement hasn’t moved the number of voters many expected it to.
And, unlike a lot of insurgent campaigns, 12th District Republican voters view both Bost and Bailey favorably. 65% have a favorable opinion of Bost, while 18% have an unfavorable view. Bailey has 61% favorable opinion with 22% unfavorable. Each man had about 17% who had never heard or had no opinion of him.
His campaign for Governor two years ago has certainly given voters in that district a better impression than many challengers would have.
Conventional wisdom tell you Bost’s television ad campaign should have swamped the underfunded Bailey over early. But it hasn’t.
Bost’s message early on was quite convoluted. His first TV ad tried to squeeze about 400 issues into a :30 spot, leaving voters less of a reason to get in line because they didn’t know the main issue for Bost.
It’s also been easy for Bailey to position Bost as a DC politician and liberal swamp creature. Whether warranted or not (and it isn’t), Bost is in DC while Congress can’t velcro it’s shoes and the world burns. Incumbents shoulder the blame.
Bailey has gotten on TV in recent weeks and continues to run his Facebook heavy campaign.
If Bailey is going to win, he needs super low turnout, lower than 2020, so the voters are the most passionate of Trump supporters.
Bost is easily still the favorite and is likely to win Tuesday, but Bailey’s campaign has had the opportunity to get on TV early and often and compete for the main stage.
But they may still pull it off Tuesday.