Numerous GOP Insiders Dubious of Bailey
Then State Representative Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) speaks to supporters after he was removed from a makeshift House session for not wearing a mask. The House met at the Bank of Springfield Center last May due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
For a party that seems laser-focused on defeating Governor JB Pritzker for a second term in 2022, the message and eventual candidate seem to be a point of contention.
As State Senator Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) became the highest profile candidate in the race Monday evening, more than a dozen Republican political operatives, insiders, as well as current and former elected officials appear skeptical of Bailey’s chances. Many even fear that Bailey, if he were to win the primary next March, could damage the party in the November general election.
All the comments came from Republicans who spoke anonymously, so as they could speak freely. None of the Republicans we spoke to are working for a prospective gubernatorial candidate or considering the race themselves.
(Disclosure: I worked primary campaigns in 2016, 2018, and 2020 against so-called “Eastern bloc” candidates, of which Bailey is aligned. I have made my opinion of him clear in our opinions section.)
Insiders are split as to whether Bailey can actually win a statewide Republican primary.
“It’s a real possibility, but there is a lot of time left,” said a former Republican lawmaker. “We’ll see who gets in and where the money goes.”
“I can’t imagine he has the intellectual capacity to make it out of a primary,” said a downstate-based Republican operative.
“Logically, I don’t think Bailey can win [the primary,] but nothing has been particularly logical about the last 4 or 5 years,” said one Republican, referring to the rise of former President Donald Trump. If the national nightmare of the last four years has taught moderate Republicans anything, I hope it’s that we can’t take it for granted that voters will make reasonable choices at the ballot box.”
“He has a lot to prove. [He has] no name ID outside of downstate hard R’s (strong GOP voters).
“In a split primary, anyone with a base can win the primary,” said one suburban GOP lawmaker. He has a devoted base.”
But many of the Republican operatives we spoke to, some who have managed budgets in statewide primaries, agreed Bailey’s biggest challenge may be fundraising.
“I don’t see how he raises the money and money will drive his train,” said a longtime GOP operative.
“Will he have the money to compete in the ‘burbs and differentiate him from other, more conservative candidates? Likely not,” said another suburban operative.
Bailey’s lack of legislative credentials is a concern for other top Republicans. Bailey passed one one bill in his two-years in the House, increasing penalties for drivers who pass stopped school buses.
“Darren Bailey’s lack of legislative accomplishments means he doesn’t get along well enough with anyone to pass a bill, let alone forge a coalition of moderate and conservative GOP voters to stand with him in a General Election, if he were somehow to make it that far,” said a southern Illinois GOP operative.
“This is someone that started out with the goal of splitting our one state into two. Now he wants to govern it,” asked the same operative, referring to Bailey and other “Eastern Bloc” lawmakers’ efforts to split downstate off from the Chicago area.
What if Bailey were to win the GOP primary? Republican voters, especially in downstate and southern Illinois, remain committed to Donald Trump, and Bailey appears best prepared to attempt to ride that populist, Trumpy wave to the nomination.
“He ensures JB [Pritzker] gets another four years,” said a longtime GOP operative. “But what worries me even more is that Bailey drags Republicans down as you go down ballot. Republicans won’t need help downstate, but Bailey’s extreme right bend will kill Republicans in the collars in new districts in a remap year. The damage he would do to Republicans in the suburbs would be bad.”
One southern Illinois GOP official thinks Bailey has a shot if he’s the nominee, mostly because of missteps by the incumbent.
“Anyone who wins the primary has an excellent opportunity to beat the current guy who just signed the [anti-police bill.]” Pritzker signed the Black Caucus police reform legislation Monday in Chicago.
But, far and wide, Republicans we spoke to fear the negative impact Bailey would have on the GOP and how poorly he may do in Cook County and the suburbs.
“If Bailey wins the primary, it will be quite an historic bloodbath,” said one operative. “Can a candidate get negative votes in the swing suburbs?”