New Poll Shows Irvin with 12-point Lead in GOP Primary for Governor
A new poll from GOP consulting firm Cor Strategies shows Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin with a 12-point lead over Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) in the race for the GOP nomination for Governor.
NOTE: This story was originally posted for subscribers only. To receive subscriber-only newsletters and content, click here.
Suburban GOP consulting firm Cor Strategies has released a new poll showing Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin with a 12 point lead in the race for the GOP nomination for Governor.
Venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan is at 10% at and suburban businessman Gary Rabine is at 7%.
(Disclosure: Cor uses automated polling outfit Victory Geek. It is the same firm I use for polls. Cor owner Collin Corbett is a friend of mine.)
The poll asked 671 Republican voters from Friday, April 29 to Monday, May 2 with 1/3 of responses collected live over cell phones. The margin of error is +/-3.71%.
Here were Corbett’s observations in a polling memo:
Richard Irvin has taken a commanding lead in the Illinois governor’s race, with 33% support. Bailey is still in striking distance at 21%, but quickly running out of time. Sullivan has faded to 10%, and the rest of the candidates are in single digits (Rabine 7%, Solomon 3%, Schimpf 2%). With only 25% of likely Republican primary voters undecided, Irvin’s challengers either need to unite or individually dominate the remainder of this race if they are to have any hope of overcoming his lead.
Irvin’s support is statewide but strongest in the suburbs, where he has lapped the field with 38% of the vote compared to just 13% for Bailey. Meanwhile, Bailey polls significantly better outside the suburbs at 27%, but even there he still trails Irvin who has 31%. Sullivan’s support is fairly consistent throughout the state, while Rabine is significantly stronger in Cook County (14%) and the suburbs (11%) than the rest of Illinois (2%).
An interesting note is Irvin’s attacks on Bailey and Sullivan have increased their negatives but both candidates are still “above water.” In fact, Bailey’s net favorability is the same as Irvin’s (+12%). The key difference is overall name recognition: Irvin has achieved an extremely strong 71% name recognition while Bailey is at a relatively weaker 50%. The difference is glaring in the suburbs, where Irvin’s name recognition is 73% compared to just 38% for Bailey.
It’s important to point out that Bailey’s supporters are much more active and dedicated than Irvin’s, so he is likely to overperform any poll. The exact impact is dependent on voter turnout, but we’d estimate his overperformance to end up around 3%, though it could be as much as 5-7% if his team’s claims of their success with “silent voters” is to be believed.
So Bailey isn’t out of this race yet. But if he continues to ignore regular Republican voters, especially in Chicagoland, Irvin’s lead will just keep growing.
The poll still shows 25% of Republican voters are undecided.