McCombie Optimistic of GOP Chances in November
House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savana) speaks to the Illinois delegation at the Republican National Convention Wednesday. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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Conventional wisdom would tell you Republicans in Illinois won’t do well in congressional and legislative races this fall.
Democrats gerrymandered a map.
Trump is a drag on the ticket.
Republicans are in a huge fundraising hole.
But a top Republican says there’s reason for optimism.
In a sitdown with The Illinoize at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week, House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savana) said she’s confident Republicans can make gains in her chamber in November.
We reported on campaign finance reports this week showing three of the most vulnerable House Republicans, Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton), Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt) and appointed Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville), either underperforming or trailing their Democratic opponents.
McCombie praised all three members and the four others who represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020.
Grant, who is traditionally a poor fundraiser, is expected to be a top target of Democrats in November.
McCombie said Grant was the only House Republican knocking on doors in her district last summer and is a constant presence in her district.
“That’s her bread and butter, face-to-face,” McCombie said. “That matters. I’m not necessarily worried about that. But she’s our member and we’re going to protect her.”
Non-traditional campaigns may be the key to GOP success if they plan to keep their super-minority 40 seats or gain seats in November.
She certainly has picked up House GOP fundraising efforts since taking the reins of the caucus last year, but Republicans still trail Democrats, who are buoyed by millions in union dollars and have an expectation of more cash from billionaire Governor JB Pritzker this fall.
McCombie predicted this week the House GOP would pick up five seats in November.
She specifically listed the open 45th House District being vacated by Rep. Jenn Ladisch-Douglass (D-Elmhurst) and the 76th House District, where Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) isn’t seeking re-election. She also pointed out the race challenging freshman Rep. Sharon Chung (D-Bloomington), who is being challenged by Republican Desi Anderson.
The 112th District, which has received quite a bit of coverage following the slating of a Republican candidate to face Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) may not be at the top of the GOP target list. It’s a race McCombie called “interesting.”
Many Republicans believed a rushed bill this spring to end the process of slating after the primary was aimed at protecting Stuart from former Edwardsville Police Chief Jay Keeven. Keeven filed anyway with hours before Governor Pritzker signed the bill into law. A Sangamon County judge has since put the new law on hold.
“That’s not one of our original flips, because we didn’t even know [if we’d have a candidate],” she said.
McCombie didn’t specify other races Republicans hoped to win in November, but GOP sources say they’re targeting Rep. Nabeela Syed (D-Palatine), and Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield) as top pickup opportunities.
McCombie says House Democrats may have gotten overzealous with the map they enacted in 2022.
“[The Speaker] drew a map to have the most Democrat representatives in history. And he has it. And he’s greedy and he wants more,” she said. “It’s not about anything other than power and greed. It’s not about the people of Illinois. It’s not about the Democrats in my district. He doesn’t care about Democrats downstate, because they’re there. He doesn’t care about lunch pail Republicans who pull Democrat ballots. They’re going to start pulling Republican [ballots in a primary], and that’s when things are going to shift.”
While many Republicans at the RNC had a newfound confidence following President Biden’s poor debate performance and former President Trump’s rise in national polls, McCombie wasn’t sure the numbers will buoy a candidate for governor in the state in two years.
We asked her if she thought a Republican could win the Governor’s office, either against Pritzker or another Democrat.
“I’m not sure,” she said. “I’m not sure we could get a candidate good enough to run if we’re in this deep of a superminority and if we don’t have excitement from voters. It’s not easy.”