Math Not on Bailey's Side
GOP nominee for governor, Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), faces significant mathematical challenges in his hopes to win the race for governor in November.
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If political headwinds, a highly funded incumbent, and his own fundraising struggles weren’t enough, Darren Bailey’s path to becoming governor appears to have a much bigger problem: math.
The Illinoize reviewed county-by-county results from the 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial elections and spoke to electoral experts to discuss whether Bailey, the conservative senator from Xenia in southern Illinois, has a path to victory in November.
The answer: only if he greatly improves his standing in the Chicago suburbs.
In 2014, Bruce Rauner defeated Gov. Pat Quinn in DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties. McHenry County was the only one of those counties he repeated victory in 2018. Even though he won McHenry County, Rauner’s victory shrunk by about two thirds. Rauner won Kendall by more than 8,000 votes in 2014 but won it by around 500 votes in 2018. Rauner lost DuPage, Lake, Kane, and Will counties in 2018.
In hypothetical exercises, results showed if Bailey outperforms Rauner’s downstate performance from 2014 but continues to lose the Chicago suburbs, he will lose in November by at least 175,000 votes. If he generally matches Rauner’s downstate numbers from 2014 but continues to lose the suburbs, he would lose by nearly 360,000 votes.
“It’s a simple math problem,” said one top Republican consultant, speaking to The Illinoize on the condition of anonymity.
While Bailey’s strengths lie in small, conservative southern Illinois counties, he must also perform well in more urbanized downstate counties which Rauner won in 2014. Rauner won DeKalb, Kankakee, Macon, Madison, McLean, Peoria, Rock Island, Sangamon, St. Clair, and Winnebago counties. In 2018, his victories were greatly reduced. In the cases of Peoria, Rock Island, St. Clair, and Winnebago counties, Rauner lost the counties in 2018.
“Darren Bailey has not run a single TV ad since becoming our nominee for Governor, not just in Chicago, but anywhere in the state,” said another GOP operative. “If you don’t have the means to give voters in the state incentive to vote for you, it doesn’t bode well for your campaign.”
That has led some top Republicans to question whether Bailey can even perform as well as Rauner did in large downstate counties in 2014 or 2018.
“He will definitely lose downstate counties that Republicans haven’t lost in a while,” said a GOP operative. “Bruce Rauner will have done better downstate than Darren Bailey when it is all said and done.”
Operatives suggested Bailey may lose downstate counties like Madison, McLean, and Sangamon, in addition to Peoria, Rock Island, and St. Clair, which Rauner lost in 2018.
It has left some Republican lawmakers questioning Bailey’s campaign plan.
“I’d like Bailey to explain his path to victory,” a high ranking Republican lawmaker said. “He must explain it since no one believes it exists and his silence on the topic speaks volumes.”
Bailey campaign representatives have repeatedly said they have a path to victory though have yet to lay it out to The Illinoize.
Our projections show if Bailey overperformed in suburban Cook County and met the generally regarded threshold of 20% of the City of Chicago vote a Republican needs to win, he would still face a 570,000 deficit from Cook County voters alone. Losing DuPage, Lake, Kane, or Will counties would likely put a final nail in the coffin of his campaign.
“It wouldn’t matter if Bailey spent every waking moment in the suburbs trying to win their votes,” said the same GOP operative. “He’s a disaster of a candidate everywhere, but particularly in the suburbs.”
Bailey will need a significant cash infusion to get on Chicago TV quickly if he hopes to reverse the troubling trend for the GOP.