Many GOP Insiders Think Budzinski "Unbeatable" in 2024
Congresswoman-Elect Nikki Budzinski speaks after winning the 13th Congressional District race in November. (Photo: State Journal-Register)
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Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski (D-Springfield) took advantage of a gerrymandered new 13th Congressional District, an underperforming Republican at the top of the statewide ticket, and an underperforming opponent in 2022 to flip a district that had been held by a Republican for a decade before.
Republicans all across the sprawling district say they’re skeptical they can find a candidate who can compete with Budzinski next year.
President Biden won the new 13th by 11 points in 2020. Budzinski beat Republican Regan Deering by more than 13 points last year.
In her first six months in office, Budzinski is earning praise, even from the GOP, for the way she has handled her messaging, policy positions, and constituent service.
“Her office has been very good to work with,” one Metro East Republican said. “She is very responsive. She has gone out of her way to work with Republicans, which, I think, is smart of her. She’s very present, we see her a lot down here. All of that [is] to her benefit.”
A Central Illinois Republican operative praised Budzinski’s start to her term in Congress.
“She’s following the Rodney Davis playbook in this district,” the operative said. “Her bipartisan talk is probably hurting our ability to find a good candidate. She’s working the district hard and saying the right things.”
Davis was gerrymandered out of his old 13th district and lost a primary in the new 15th district last year.
Longtime Piatt County GOP Chairman Jim Ayers credited Budzinski for standing out compared to Democrats than ran in the previous, less Democrat-dominated district.
“She’s made all the right moves,” Ayers said. “She has probably shown to have more credibility than any other Democrat [that challenged Davis]. That makes the district harder to win.”
A longtime Southern Illinois GOP operative said gerrymandering is the best benefit to Budzinski’s chances in 2024 and beyond.
“Democrats did a masterful job of drawing a map that includes enough metro areas that are somewhat more aligned with suburban areas,” the operative said. “This is not a rural district. There are rural areas in the district, but the fact it isn’t rural is very good for her.”
Budzinski’s strong start, the new map, and the struggles of downstate Republicans have left Republicans sour on their chances.
“I think it has the potential of being a really crap year for Republicans,” the southern consultant said. “I think Trump at the top of the ticket could be a disaster for us.”
“Rodney was the best candidate. He would have taken on and beaten [Budzinski],” Ayers, the Piatt County GOP Chair, said. “Head to head, Rodney could probably do it if he came out of retirement.”
Davis said there was a “less than zero chance” that he would be in the mix in 2024.
“If I wanted to run where I didn’t live, I would have run there last time,” Davis said via text message.
(Disclosure: I worked on Davis’ first race in 2012.)
"[Trump is] the biggest problem we have in 2024,” the Central Illinois insider said. “I don’t know who we have at the top of the ticket who makes it better for us.”
That makes it harder to recruit a top tier candidate next year.
“I don’t think it’s completely a lost cause,” the operative said. “I think with the right candidate and the right national climate with the right top of the ticket, a Republican could win, but it’s going to be tough.”
But the serious push against Budzinski could wait until 2026.
“The history of congressional politics shows that once you’re in, you’re in,” the southern Illinois operative said. “I do think 2026 is a better opportunity because of turnout and we don’t have a presidential election. I do think it’s possible because that tends to be a better cycle for us.”
We’re told Washington Republicans had contacted freshman Sen. Erica Harriss (R-Glen Carbon) about her interest in the race, but we’re told little came of the discussion.
Army veteran Joshua Loyd of Carbondale is the only candidate to file paperwork with the Federal Election Commission at this point. Carbondale is some 80 miles outside of the 13th district (though, of course, you aren’t legally required to live in the congressional district you run in, it doesn’t hurt politically). He is not considered to be a top tier candidate.
Meanwhile, Democrats are confident in their chances next year.
“Nobody is beating Nikki next year,” one central Illinois Democratic insider said. “Nobody.”
