Madigan Looms Over Democrats Up and Down 2022 Ballot
The indictment of former House Speaker Michael Madigan (above) looms over Democrats on the 2022 ballot, including Gov. JB Pritzker (below).
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Some Republicans have an increasingly optimistic view of the 2022 election, telling The Illinoize the GOP can win the Illinois House of Representatives.
The Republican admits a lot of things have to go right to win back the House chamber for the first time since the GOP held it for a single term, from 1995-1997. The first major shoe dropped Wednesday when former longtime Democratic Speaker Michael Madigan was indicted by the federal government on corruption charges.
The indictment appears to touch every Democrat. Each one, from Governor JB Pritzker to the newest members elected in 2020, either took Madigan’s money, praised him publicly, or owed him something at some point.
Republicans have tried throwing Madigan at Democrats for years, but with an actual indictment and the potential of millions of dollars flowing into the House and Senate GOP coffers if billionaire Ken Griffin’s chosen gubernatorial candidate, Richard Irvin, gets the GOP nomination, the allegations, dirt, and attacks may stick.
2022 is shaping up to be a GOP wave year nationwide, and the Illinois GOP has succeeded, to an extent, in waves in 2014, 2010, and 1994.
Republicans currently have 45 seats in the House and the Republican I spoke to said if you look at all of the districts JB Pritzker won by ten points or less in 2018, you see the top targets.
According to the wonderful resource Illinois Election Data, here were your districts Pritzker won by 10 points or less in 2018: Rohr, Costa-Howard, Hirschauer, 48th (open), Walker, 54th (open), Moylan, Mason, 62nd (open), Ness, Vella, Stava-Murray, 83rd (open, though GOP Rep. Keith Wheeler is seeking that seat), 91st (open), Stuart (which is actually 10.5%).
That’s exactly 15 and the GOP has some tough seats to hold. So a million things would have to go right for House Republicans, but the math makes it possible.
The Senate Republicans also have a chance at gains. By the same criteria, there would be 8 Democratic seats in play: Ellman, 23rd (open), Glowiak-Hilton, Gillespie, 31st (open), 36th (open), D. Turner, and Crowe. There are only 18 Republicans in the Senate, but a wave election could give them a few more seats at the table.
All that said, it’s still early March and JB Pritzker still has unlimited funds and Republicans haven’t nominated a gubernatorial candidate yet. But some Republicans I’m talking to are feeling a lot of optimism right now.