Is Irvin a Game Changer or Republican Imposter?
New GOP ticket Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville) and Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin. The pair is backed by billionaire GOP fundraiser Ken Griffin. (Campaign photo)
Richard Irvin isn’t your traditional Republican candidate for Governor. Does that make him a game changer in a state where the GOP has consistently had a hard time gaining traction? Or does it make him a Democratic wolf in sheep’s clothing?
The Illinoize reached out to numerous current and former Republican elected officials, operatives, and insiders to gauge their impression of Irvin’s campaign. We allowed respondents to remain anonymous so they could speak freely.
Numerous Republicans we spoke to were excited by an African-American led ticket, the likelihood of tens of millions of dollars in funding from billionaire Ken Griffin or his allies, and the only candidate in the race many feel can beat JB Pritzker in the fall.
But numerous other GOP insiders say they don’t think Irvin is conservative, is an untested commodity, and believe his long record of voting in Democratic primaries make him unacceptable to many GOP primary voters.
“I think he’s exciting,” one GOP insider said. “His story is so moving. I think he matches up with Pritzker in a way that he can win.”
But can Irvin get past a Republican primary in an age where GOP primary voters are skewing older, more rural, more conservative, and more white.
“Irvin by far gives us the best chance to beat Pritzker,” an operative said. “But I don’t think he’ll make it to the general.”
Conservatives believe Irvin will wind up rejected by primary voters.
“We’re talking about a suburban elected official with deep, deep Democrat roots,” a conservative GOP elected official said. “He’s praised the work JB Pritzker has done as Governor. That’s a really hard sell to a primary electorate. Especially because GOP primaries can often become purity tests.”
Conservative Republican Jeanne Ives nearly upset incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner in the 2018 primary running an insurgent campaign from the right, portraying Rauner as an out of touch, liberal on Republican issues.
But others feel Irvin is a transcendent candidate for Illinois Republicans, who have struggled with minority outreach for decades.
“He can beat the Governor,” a former lawmaker said. “Voters don’t find Governor Pritzker’s story particularly compelling. He was born into enormous wealth and has never known the challenges Mayor Irvin has faced. [Pritzker is] a capable politician, but completely uninspiring.”
Another Republican insider says with Republican prospects looking up nationwide, Illinois has the opportunity to take advantage.
“He can absolutely win,” the insider said. “We’re looking at a 2010 or 1994 type of [Republican wave]. While the wave in Illinois may not be as massive as it will elsewhere, it will lift up Republicans, and a good candidate with a lot of resources can beat this Governor.”
But it comes back to party purity. Irvin has voted in at least 5 of the past 6 Democratic primaries, according to the Kane County Clerk’s Office. But some advocates say it’s easier to pull a Democratic ballot in a city like Aurora.
“It doesn’t help,” the insider said. “But it’s easy to explain that he lives in Aurora and that’s often where the action is. It’s that way in a lot of suburbs.”
There is plenty of skepticism among conservatives.
”He has a great life story regardless of political affiliation,” a conservative GOP lawmaker said. “But, regardless of the money spent, I don’t believe he can win a Republican primary.”
One consultant fears Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), the presumed frontrunner in the GOP race, has locked up much of the GOP base early on.
Others share that belief.
“I worry that he will lose and we will get Bailey,” the operative said. “Unfortunately, our purists in the primary set up our failure in the general. He can beat Pritzker. I just don’t know if he can get through the primary.”
Though, millions of dollars from Griffin and allies could change the game.
“My hope is that there is still enough common sense left in the Republican Party to realize that Darren Bailey is a loser in the general election,” an insider said. “If the coming wave is big enough, we can win some statewide races, but not with Bailey at the top of the ticket.”
“This feels a lot like Bruce Rauner,” an elected official said. “It just feels very swampy.”
Though, some believe Pritzker may help Bailey capture the primary.
“I assume Team JB spends a few million reminding the GOP base that Bailey is the true GOP guy,” a former lawmaker said. “If Bailey is the nominee, then the election is over.”
But, generally, Republicans seem to believe Irvin is the best shot to capture the Governor’s Mansion later this year.
“He’s the only [GOP] candidate announced to date with a prayer,” a former elected official said.
