Is Bailey in the Lead?
Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) at the March for Life Chicago rally at Federal Plaza on Jan. 8, 2022, in Chicago. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
About ten days ago, the Richard Irvin campaign released a poll showing the Aurora Mayor up six points on Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) in the race for the GOP nomination for governor.
Yesterday, though, radio host Dan Proft, who is running a PAC supporting Bailey and opposing Irvin, funded by billionaire Richard Uihlein, said he had a new poll for his organization showing Bailey leading Irvin by seven points.
Proft said the poll was conducted by Republican firm Fabrizio & Lee, the pollster for former President Donald Trump’s two presidential campaigns. His poll showed Bailey at 27%, Irvin at 20%, venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan at 13%, and businessman Gary Rabine at 12%. Results for other candidates and undecided voters were not released.
We requested a copy of the poll from Proft, who did not respond.
Proft said on his radio show a Fabrizio poll a “few weeks ago” generally matched those released by the Irvin campaign in late May. If correct, it shows a 13-point turnaround in favor of Bailey, who has been boosted by $9 million dollars from Uihlein, as well as attacks on Irvin from Governor JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governor’s Association.
“I think what’s happening, and the underlying numbers bear this out, is that if you can’t close the deal with the first $20 million, if you’re Irvin, and the landscape was basically yours and yours alone up until about mid-April, then you may find yourself in trouble if resources are devoted to educating the electorate about who you actually are,” Proft said on his radio show Monday. “Irvin has now gone upside down, meaning his unfavorables are higher than his favorables. The documenting of Irvin’s words and deeds, all I’ve done is put his words in context.”
We’re hearing Bailey’s internal polling also shows him leading Irvin, though a campaign representative did not comment on their internal polls.
Sources close to the Irvin campaign told The Illinoize Monday they believed the race had tightened, but believed Irvin is still leading.