GOP Struggles in Suburbs May Be Easier to Identify than Fix
Some Republicans we spoke to said former Governor Bruce Rauner was part of the reason to blame for GOP losses in the legislature in 2018.
2018 was one of the most destructive election cycles for Illinois Republicans in recent memory. The GOP lost the Governor’s office, lost two of the state’s seats in Congress, 8 State House seats and 3 Senate seats. One Republican described the beating as a “bloodbath.”
Two years later, on the verge of potentially further losses in the Chicago suburbs, Republicans seem relatively consistent in why they’re losing races, many naming the same set of factors. Tracking a path to victory, however, seems much more difficult.
We spoke with about a dozen current and former suburban Republican legislators, strategists, and party officials. Many agreed that President Donald Trump and former Governor Bruce Rauner’s unpopularity dragged the GOP down in 2018, and many suggest Trump could do the same again in November.
“The more moderate white suburban voter recoils personally from Donald Trump’s style, said one longtime Republican lawmaker who retired from Springfield in recent years. “That combination primarily drove [results in] 2018.”
A veteran of GOP campaigns says Trump dragged down suburban Republican candidates significantly two years ago.
“Generic [ballot preference] flipped by double digits in all of the targeted districts,” said the strategist. “The suburbs are all nationally driven. You can run the best or worst campaign in the world, but the most a local candidate can change [the generic ballot preference] is 3 points.”
The former legislator says midterm elections are usually bad for a sitting President’s party, but Trump drove suburban Republican turnout down even lower, while energizing the left.
“The anger was palpable [in 2018],” said another former suburban Republican legislator, who lost a close race for their seat. “People were angry at the President the same way you see a lot of anger right now, in the same way you saw in 2016.”
Trump has caused so much anger from the electorate that the GOP strategist says a Clinton presidency would have benefitted Republican candidates.
“Had Hillary won, we wouldn’t have lost a single seat,” said the strategist. “We probably would have picked up a couple.”
One incumbent suburban Republican lawmaker says they are trying to win a local race on state issues in a nationally driven environment.
“State races are subject to the national political environment now,” said the GOP lawmaker. “This has been increasing over the years with the nationalization of the news via cable and social media. We just have to accept and deal with that.”
Generally, Republicans held serve in the suburbs in 2016. A former lawmaker says that may be close to the case again in 2020.
“In [20]20, there will be Republicans that want to come out because they support Donald Trump,” the former legislator says. “They probably didn’t come out in 2018 because they didn’t see anything in Rauner that was worth coming out for.”
Numerous Republicans point to Rauner’s failures in his single term and in his failed re-election bid as one of the downfalls for suburban candidates in 2018.
“[Governor] Rauner wasn’t good at what he did,” said another retired Republican legislator. “He hurt us tremendously.”
“There was nothing that Rauner was offering that was going to draw [GOP voters] out because he had lost his base by then anyway,” said a different former lawmaker. “There was nothing in 2018 to pull Republicans out to the polls.”
But, Pat Brady of St. Charles, a Rauner ally who served as Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party from 2009 to 2013 says the former governor does not share all the blame for GOP struggles in 2018.
“It’s easy to blame someone that’s not around anymore,” said Brady. “[Rauner] did a lot for the party, put a lot of money into the party and helped get a lot of people elected.”
Republicans did make gains in 2016, specifically downstate, after Rauner put around $13 million into House races and the Illinois Republican Party.
In 2018, though, Rauner made significantly fewer investments in legislative races.
“The Governor and his team did not seem as committed to helping candidates down ballot,” said a former lawmaker. “That did not help suburban Republicans.”
I don’t think it’s fair to put it all on him. That’s a cop out,” said Brady. “People should have seen that if [Rauner] wasn’t going to win, they needed to start raising money again. Take responsibility that we had a hard time raising money because we quit raising money when [he] was Governor.”
Many Republicans we spoke to were specifically critical of Rauner’s handling of hot-topic legislative issues, like his wars with public and private sector unions and a budget battle that lasted almost two years.
“The war on trade unions that took place during the Rauner administration was extremely destructive to relationships that had taken years to build,” says former GOP Senator Chris Nybo, who lost his Naperville-based district by around 1,600 votes of around 101,000 cast. “Unions have always been a strong source of financial support, and we completely took that off the table because of the Governor’s agenda.”
“He was wrong on the issue. He didn’t understand unions,” said one of the retired lawmakers. “He didn’t only look at public sector unions, where there’s an argument to be made there’s a conflict of interest. Instead, he took on all the unions, public and private, and the fact of the matter is those private unions were ready to help with public pension reform. He made a huge mistake taking them all on and painting with a very broad brush.”
The lawmaker proceeded to call Rauner a “horrible” and “unlikeable” messenger for the issue.
“I think there are some real opportunities for Republicans to work with trade unions, in terms of growing jobs and economic opportunity, building and repairing infrastructure, there are a lot of opportunities for Republicans to be supportive of them,” said another former legislator. “The party needs to focus on rebuilding those relationships moving forward. There are going to be disagreements, Republican legislators won’t be 100% in line, but there is a lot of potential synergy out there.”
The lawmaker credited Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) and House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) for attempting to repair union relationships damaged during the Rauner administration.
Nybo says Rauner’s anti-union rhetoric often put moderate suburban Republican legislators in a tough spot.
“Legislators wanted to be supportive of the Governor, but a lot of us knew it was the wrong strategy,” he said. “In fact, more and more legislators fell off roll calls where we were being asked to vote outright against unions. By that time, the damage had been done.”
Pat Brady, the former state GOP chair, defended Rauner’s policy efforts.
“Did he make mistakes? Of course, he did, particularly in dealing with the unions and some things that just wouldn’t work in Illinois,” he said. “If you look at the agenda that he ran on, they were right out of the Republican playbook. He was promoting an agenda that we all agree on.”
Unions, of course, have ramped up fundraising efforts for House and Senate Democrats, contributing to the hole Republicans face in fundraising. Apart from 2016, the fundraising gap for Republicans has grown in the past decade.
“The deluge of cash killed us [in 2018],” said the GOP strategist. “When you have [so many] competitive races, we had to go completely on defense. We didn’t even touch some potentially very competitive races.”
Several Republicans we talked to said donors either got complacent or disinterested.
“A lot of wealthier people who would be inclined to donate to Republicans are concerned that there isn’t a sufficient return on the investment,” said a former lawmaker. “Democrats have super majorities, they draw the map, and I think it’s dispiriting.”
The Republican campaign veteran says having a billionaire Democratic governor in office will potentially put the GOP at a further disadvantage.
The strategist says high income donors like conservative activist Richard Uihlein “only back the whack jobs who don’t help us in the most populated area of the state.”
The rise of super-conservative activists and candidates has raised another issue for many suburban Republicans.
“The seed of all of this, that spiral downward, is becoming very focused on social issues, being very far right on those issues, not making people feel welcome on those issues,” said former Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno of Lemont, who retired from the Senate after 20 years of service in 2017.
“We need to get away from the hardline ideology and come up with platforms that help people make their lives better. When we do that, we win,” said Brady.
“You’ve got to offer a compelling message to voters. You have to understand what voters are looking for and how your principles can best be marketed to them,” said one of the former lawmakers. “Then you have to recruit quality candidates. Then you take that collective package to donors and say ‘this is a long-haul investment, we understand, but this is the way out. Here’s the data that supports it, here are the candidates that are gonna sell it.”
“[The GOP needs] practical solutions, finding a way to make progress, of getting things done,” said a different former lawmaker. “If you’re a legislator, it’s helpful to be working on serious legislation that has a chance of getting passed, building support, and finding a way to get it passed. I think all legislators would benefit on focusing on what they want to get their priorities done.”
Nybo says Republicans need more effective candidates like some of the current lawmakers they have in place.
“To win back support in the suburbs, Republicans need to have more candidates like Rep Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield), Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva), and Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst),” who are all locked in intense races for re-election. “Candidates who are focused on practical policy solutions and improving government, instead of just “throwing bombs” to get more Twitter followers.”
“There are too many intolerant candidates,” said one retired lawmaker. “A suburban woman cringes at that.”
“The party has been more focused on purity than winning and governing,” said the same lawmaker. They would rather lose than be saddled by some middle of the road kind of person. That mentality hurt us.”
Brady has come under fire for endorsing suburban Democrat Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) over conservative Republican Jeanne Ives.
“Jeanne Ives is way too extreme for this district and has pledged her allegiance to a political ideology and to the party which is not what any elected official should do,” he said. “They should represent their constituents. She’s a great example of someone who won’t.”
Several Republicans in our discussions spoke about how former Republican governors did not prioritize social issues.
“[Jim] Thomspon, [Jim] Edgar, [Judy Baar] Topinka (who lost the race for Governor in 2006), even George Ryan and Bruce Rauner. When we had power in this state, none of them were super conservative on those issues,” said Radogno.
“The party needs to come up with a suburban agenda,” said Brady. “We need to put candidates up that are articulating a message that suburban folks care about like taxes, property taxes, education, and crime.”
The GOP strategist says far right downstate lawmakers, known as the “Eastern Bloc” hurts suburban members with their rhetoric.
“To be a middle of the road compromiser, like Jim Thompson, who got things done, you can’t have [more conservative members like] Rep. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) out there who bring down everyone else,” the strategist said. “They’re radical, they say such radical things, the press picks that up and runs it in the suburbs and Republicans get tagged with it because it’s so inflammatory.”
A different former Republican lawmaker says some current legislators in Springfield should spend more time working on attainable progress.
“It’s ok to have lofty and ideological political goals, but they should be doing so in a way that makes policy progress,” the lawmaker said. “Not just scoring points on social media, getting your name in the paper, or being identified as the head of a cause. They should focus on policy and not personalities.”
Republicans have focused much of their political message in recent years on the power and implied corruption of House Speaker Michael Madigan.
“I don’t know how you can look at it and say it’s been effective,” said a former state senator.
Brady says that should mean more focus on what Republicans will do in office.
“In recent years, we haven’t had an agenda that people want to jump on with,” he said. “What has our agenda been? I think there is some value in the Madigan bashing, but then we need to move on and talk about what we’re going to do.”
The 2020 election brings further challenges for Republicans. They’re once again snowed over in cash with an unpopular President likely to lose the suburbs by 15 or 20 points. Republicans are at risk of losing as many as 11 suburban seats in the House and another in the Senate.
The Republicans we spoke to say there’s a path for Republicans to improve their standing in the suburbs, likely after 2020.
“There’s a lane for Republicans to make a comeback, and I think in two years, we will,” said Brady. “If Joe Biden wins and the Democrats overreach, as they typically do, there’s an opportunity for us to have another 2010 where we picked up a lot of seats.”
“I think it’s happening again that the Dems are moving too far left,” said a former lawmaker, who said that opens up opportunities for the GOP.
“Pritzker is starting to piss off the suburban moms, and they almost always make up the decision of who is Governor,” said the GOP strategist.
The strategist said the hardest part may be finding quality candidates to run in the suburbs.
“In the General Assembly its geographic. In the suburbs, you want a pro-choice woman who can get through the primary,” the strategist said. “That’s damn near a unicorn at this point.”
Demographic changes in the suburbs do leave some Republicans concerned.
“The suburbs are less white as a percentage, there’s a larger percentage of people of color,” said a former State Senator. “If you look at the voting patterns of whites versus people of color, Democrats do better. That demographic shift is certainly a reason why Democrats are doing better in the suburbs.”
Some Republicans hope another dynamic, wealthy candidate for Governor comes along in 2022.
“Getting a Todd Ricketts [to run for Governor] would be fantastic,” said the GOP strategist of the co-owner of the Chicago Cubs and RNC National Finance Chairman.
Even with some of the heartburn Republicans have faced in the last decade, specifically in the suburbs, Brady says he’s optimistic for the future.
“I have complete faith in the Republican approach to government. It maybe needs to be modified a bit to bring it up to speed with the current economy,” he said. “But if we stay with that and get candidates who can represent the different demographics, I think we’ll do fine.”
